Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Jns2183]

current radar  precip looking way ahead of schedule and very spotty/dry too?

I thought you might appreciate this swipe at models

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[Jns2183]

Seems we are in a bit of uncharted territory here with the analogs. I wonder what the AI's take is with this.

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[WmsptWx]

There was a "blizzard" on Friday, December 26, 1947 that dropped 26" on NYC. Do we have data available to see if this area was impacted by that storm and what the setup was in the days prior?

[Ruin]

29 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I thought you might appreciate this swipe at models

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hah

[pasnownut]

10 hours ago, TimB said:

But not for the forum he’s supposed to be in, which isn’t this one either.

hes 1 county (and about 20 miles) east of me.

 

Your 230 miles west.

 

Furthermore hes no troll like you.  He offers tons more than you, and his reports are rather similar to much of the LSV.  

Try all you want, but you blew it in here a long long time ago.  We've had this conversation before as well.  You wont win anyone over in here.  The only one you amuse is you and your climate pal that you call in for support .  Take the hint and stop muckin up our forum.  

 

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m not sure what CTP is thinking for Friday, but they have not updated their forecast discussion at all in the long range portion. They updated their point & click grids this afternoon as a few folks mentioned, but they still aren’t addressing the growing concern for Wintry weather on Friday, which again will be a major travel day for many.

While it is trending better (like 0z GFS), I think they too are a little perplexed at the evolution.  It's really an outside curveball IMO, but hey contact is contact when youre swingin at anything that'll get ya snow.  

[Jns2183]

While it is trending better (like 0z GFS), I think they too are a little perplexed at the evolution.  It's really an outside curveball IMO, but hey contact is contact when youre swingin at anything that'll get ya snow.  

I think the issue is there are not many analogs for this setup. It's exciting because it's rare. It also makes uncertainty go sky high. Throw in it being a big travel day and Im starting to feel bad for these guys.

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[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS & 0z Canadian both show a sleet fest for many of us on Friday.

[Jns2183]

0z GFS & 0z Canadian both show a sleet fest for many of us on Friday.

How's our Quebec low this run vs prior?

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[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I think the issue is there are not many analogs for this setup. It's exciting because it's rare. It also makes uncertainty go sky high. Throw in it being a big travel day and Im starting to feel bad for these guys.

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I just looked back over again, and I'm just not feeling it.  Surface high isnt anchored, its scootin NE as SLP approaches.  Thermals are on a razors edge for many southers, so we know how that cut feels.  Otoh, SLP stays SE of Pa, so I think we'll need to see how much antecedent cold can hold when qpf arrives and how strong SLP gets.  I'd root for a weaker slp, based on current evolution.  JMO's 

[pasnownut]

32 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I think the issue is there are not many analogs for this setup. It's exciting because it's rare. It also makes uncertainty go sky high. Throw in it being a big travel day and Im starting to feel bad for these guys.

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Yep.  Look at 500's at timestamp of storm, and then paint a surface picture that youd think would logically fit.  0z GFS is not it to me, but as i've said a couple times, NAO is trending down as is AO, and that might be what is bring the surface maps slowly south as we get closer.  Thats how I'm looking at it anyway. 

[Jns2183]

Yep.  Look at 500's at timestamp of storm, and then paint a surface picture that youd think would logically fit.  0z GFS is not it to me, but as i've said a couple times, NAO is trending down as is AO, and that might be what is bring the surface maps slowly south as we get closer.  Thats how I'm looking at it anyway. 

I wouldn't expect anything more than CAD doing its thing. Snow, no; Ice, yes

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[Festus]

2 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

There was a "blizzard" on Friday, December 26, 1947 that dropped 26" on NYC. Do we have data available to see if this area was impacted by that storm and what the setup was in the days prior?

Per Millersville archive, we received 3.5" on December 26, 1947.  Geez, getting fringed even way back then.

[mitchnick]

Started as decent snow around 4:30. Good luck up north of me. I'm sure mine will be washed away....but not yet!

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Started as decent snow around 4:30. Good luck up north of me. I'm sure mine will be washed away....but not yet!

34 here currently, don't see this sticking around long.

[Ruin]

nothing here 

[mitchnick]

6z Gfs is a heartbreaker down here for Friday. Oh soooo close. Still time....sorta.

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs is a heartbreaker down here for Friday. Oh soooo close. Still time....sorta.

My forecast for Friday:

Friday

A chance of snow before 1pm, then snow and freezing rain. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night

Freezing rain, mainly before 1am. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[pawatch]

30 degrees, probably less than an inch of snow. Roads are covered. Currently to dark to see what it’s doing out.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

My forecast for Friday:

Friday

A chance of snow before 1pm, then snow and freezing rain. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night

Freezing rain, mainly before 1am. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Mine is snow & zr before 1pm, then rn & zr after. Meh

[Yardstickgozinya]

Light mix of snow and sleet here for about the last ten minutes. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 34 and a light coating of snow on all non-paved surfaces. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

8 hours ago, Ruin said:

current radar  precip looking way ahead of schedule and very spotty/dry 

I looked out on top of my pool just before the snow ,sleet mix started and there was the tiny bit of graupel on the ice that had fallen around 11:00pm last night. So between 11 and start time this morning, it looks like there was nothing.  The tiny graupel shower I got here was so brief I would imagine, it had to be localized and it basically amounted to absolutely nothing here. 

.

[Yardstickgozinya]

All snow right now at a moderate rate, big old fat radiant flakes again here.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Welp I just drove through whiteout conditions on the way to the train and am currently stuck behind an accident on the backroads. Going to miss the first train. Roads were mostly fine but definitely some slick spots and deteriorating quickly. Stay safe out there!

[Voyager]

Nary a flake in Tamaqua yet. We had a super light dusting on the vehicles that looked more like frost than snow. That has since melted due to the current temperature of 32.5

[canderson]

No snow or ice in the city from what I see  - it’s 35 and just a little rain (like .01”) 

[AccuChris]

1/2” of snow in Lebanon. Just tapered off it seems


.

[Jns2183]

No snow or ice in the city from what I see  - it’s 35 and just a little rain (like .01”) 

It's 32 and slippery in Camp Hill

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[ChescoWx]

Still snowing steadily here in East Nantmeal temperature is 31.4 and as of 7am we have 0.8" of snow. All surfaces covered.