Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Jns2183]

current radar  precip looking way ahead of schedule and very spotty/dry too?

I thought you might appreciate this swipe at models

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[Jns2183]

Seems we are in a bit of uncharted territory here with the analogs. I wonder what the AI's take is with this.

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[WmsptWx]

There was a "blizzard" on Friday, December 26, 1947 that dropped 26" on NYC. Do we have data available to see if this area was impacted by that storm and what the setup was in the days prior?

[Ruin]

29 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I thought you might appreciate this swipe at models

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hah

[pasnownut]

10 hours ago, TimB said:

But not for the forum he’s supposed to be in, which isn’t this one either.

hes 1 county (and about 20 miles) east of me.

 

Your 230 miles west.

 

Furthermore hes no troll like you.  He offers tons more than you, and his reports are rather similar to much of the LSV.  

Try all you want, but you blew it in here a long long time ago.  We've had this conversation before as well.  You wont win anyone over in here.  The only one you amuse is you and your climate pal that you call in for support .  Take the hint and stop muckin up our forum.  

 

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m not sure what CTP is thinking for Friday, but they have not updated their forecast discussion at all in the long range portion. They updated their point & click grids this afternoon as a few folks mentioned, but they still aren’t addressing the growing concern for Wintry weather on Friday, which again will be a major travel day for many.

While it is trending better (like 0z GFS), I think they too are a little perplexed at the evolution.  It's really an outside curveball IMO, but hey contact is contact when youre swingin at anything that'll get ya snow.  

[Jns2183]

While it is trending better (like 0z GFS), I think they too are a little perplexed at the evolution.  It's really an outside curveball IMO, but hey contact is contact when youre swingin at anything that'll get ya snow.  

I think the issue is there are not many analogs for this setup. It's exciting because it's rare. It also makes uncertainty go sky high. Throw in it being a big travel day and Im starting to feel bad for these guys.

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[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS & 0z Canadian both show a sleet fest for many of us on Friday.

[Jns2183]

0z GFS & 0z Canadian both show a sleet fest for many of us on Friday.

How's our Quebec low this run vs prior?

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[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I think the issue is there are not many analogs for this setup. It's exciting because it's rare. It also makes uncertainty go sky high. Throw in it being a big travel day and Im starting to feel bad for these guys.

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I just looked back over again, and I'm just not feeling it.  Surface high isnt anchored, its scootin NE as SLP approaches.  Thermals are on a razors edge for many southers, so we know how that cut feels.  Otoh, SLP stays SE of Pa, so I think we'll need to see how much antecedent cold can hold when qpf arrives and how strong SLP gets.  I'd root for a weaker slp, based on current evolution.  JMO's 

[pasnownut]

32 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I think the issue is there are not many analogs for this setup. It's exciting because it's rare. It also makes uncertainty go sky high. Throw in it being a big travel day and Im starting to feel bad for these guys.

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Yep.  Look at 500's at timestamp of storm, and then paint a surface picture that youd think would logically fit.  0z GFS is not it to me, but as i've said a couple times, NAO is trending down as is AO, and that might be what is bring the surface maps slowly south as we get closer.  Thats how I'm looking at it anyway. 

[Jns2183]

Yep.  Look at 500's at timestamp of storm, and then paint a surface picture that youd think would logically fit.  0z GFS is not it to me, but as i've said a couple times, NAO is trending down as is AO, and that might be what is bring the surface maps slowly south as we get closer.  Thats how I'm looking at it anyway. 

I wouldn't expect anything more than CAD doing its thing. Snow, no; Ice, yes

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[Festus]

2 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

There was a "blizzard" on Friday, December 26, 1947 that dropped 26" on NYC. Do we have data available to see if this area was impacted by that storm and what the setup was in the days prior?

Per Millersville archive, we received 3.5" on December 26, 1947.  Geez, getting fringed even way back then.