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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035
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MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

ChescoWx
ChescoWx

Another 1.0" has fallen here in East Nantmeal since 6am total snow 8.5"  Still some light snow temp down to 26.9

canderson
canderson

This gorgeous shot was posted in the HBGere with.Cameras group tonight.  https://www.facebook.com/share/p/14Pmn8ttuD2/?  

Posted Images

Yardstickgozinya

Yardstickgozinya

Posted
Posted

There's definitely no hype to some of these wind events this fall and early meteorological winter. As I said before I find in my general area that these events usually can't get there advertised winds to the ground and that hasn't been the case over the last few months. I've also had several extra truckloads of tree debris from all my clients this year from Union Deposit to Dillsburg. This morning is possibly one of the most gnarly wind event I can remember at my home since the historic low dew point derecho of 1989.

  Below is some information on the 1989 low dewpoint Derecho. One of the most interesting and rare weather event most of us got to experience in our lifetimes. Screenshot_20251219_204121_Chrome.thumb.jpg.1ca7981fef2d8e38398aae0ba9133010.jpg

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/6824/noaa_6824_DS1.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiai_iXisuRAxVzFlkFHbeBElcQFnoECFoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2L8H8kDzIM5k9RkZFJmF4U

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pawatch

pawatch

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

Still over 16,000 customers of PPL without power this morning. 17 this morning.

My power went out 3 times, but was back on within 5 minutes. Some other people were less fortunate. 
We had 53 mph wind gust and a 1/4” of rain dumped on us in less than a couple minutes.

Crazy weather.

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

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Posted

0z GFS & 6z GFS are still showing interesting looks for potential Winter storm chances towards end of the month into the first few days of the New Year.

The onset of Blocking really throws models fits until they can see the full impact of the -NAO. If it sets up just right, we could be tracking a meaningful potential storm.

The 0z GFS showed this beauty of a chance at the end of its run.

 

IMG_1185.png

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

A return to chillier weather today with highs in the mid-40's. We stay below normal through Monday with maybe some wet snow arriving toward Tuesday morning. This should turn to rain pretty quickly from SW To NE across the area. Temperatures look to be near normal for Christmas Eve Day before we rise to about 4 degrees above normal for Christmas Day. Boxing Day looks to be the warmest day of the week before we cool down as we move toward the New Year's holiday.

image.png.bc26f20924f56c62006e2cc1c305da86.pngimage.thumb.png.3e640a5eacd7191475da84a477170243.png

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Posted
1 hour ago, canderson said:

It’s going to 50+ Christmas day and even warmer - maybe pushing 60 -  Dec 26. Boooooooooo

Maybe in western PA, cool air has a good chance of holding in the rest of the state east of the Alleghenies Christmas Day. GFS a bit cooler than the Euro (actually slightly below average in eastern PA), but even the Euro only has MDT getting into the low 40s or so. Even if it did bust 50 degrees the +5 to 10 departure that would make high-wise is pretty tame compared to where the real torch is centered. + Anomalies Christmas Day in the central plains are bananas, in the realm of 30-40 degrees above average. We may have a couple fairly warm days on or just after Christmas, but the -NAO blocking is likely going to keep us from being overrun with any kind of warmth like that. 

12z GFS temps/anomalies

image.thumb.png.4e781b5969d40e9ff082297619b34650.png

image.thumb.png.8b7210fb0494409efb072e88468dc06a.png

 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Maybe in western PA, cool air has a good chance of holding in the rest of the state east of the Alleghenies Christmas Day. GFS a bit cooler than the Euro (actually slightly below average in eastern PA), but even the Euro only has MDT getting into the low 40s or so. Even if it did bust 50 degrees the +5 to 10 departure that would make high-wise is pretty tame compared to where the real torch is centered. + Anomalies Christmas Day in the central plains are bananas, in the realm of 30-40 degrees above average. We may have a couple fairly warm days on or just after Christmas, but the -NAO blocking is likely going to keep us from being overrun with any kind of warmth like that. 

12z GFS temps/anomalies

image.thumb.png.4e781b5969d40e9ff082297619b34650.png

image.thumb.png.8b7210fb0494409efb072e88468dc06a.png

 

I hope (and believe) you're right. CTP is seeing something different because they have me in the 50s on Christmas day.

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Ruin

Ruin

Posted
Posted

so far going back through this winter the temp forecasts have not been very accurate when it comes to 1 how long cold or warm would last and 2 overall temps have busted lower then forecasted many times. 

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted

Finally looked back at Fridays stats for Tamaqua (my backyard). Max wind, as I mentioned earlier, was well below most places due to houses and nearby mountains sheltering my neighborhood.

High temp: 57

Low temp: 24

Wind gust: 16.2 mph

Rainfall: 1.26"

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

Here is CTP for Monday night/early Tuesday for the Harrisburg area.

Monday Night
Snow likely before 4am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is CTP for Monday night/early Tuesday for the Harrisburg area.

Monday Night
Snow likely before 4am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overrunning precip on Monday night and Tuesday will be mainly
snow overnight, but could turn to rain in the Laurels and
central mtns before morning. As that change would occur, there
is a strong possibility that some ZR will occur. We will
continue to mention ZR in the wx grids and show a small patch of
ice accum in the central mtns late Mon night and early Tues AM.
We have 3 more periods to become more confident in the
forecast, but may eventually need a wint wx advy for that time
frame. Since there is expected to be SN at first and temps
hovering in the 30-32F range for much of the CWA late Mon night
and early Tues, the changeover to RA could occur without
creating dangerous ZR. The highest threat of ice accumulations
appears to be around AOO and UNV before sunrise. QPF will be
almost nothing on the MD border, but a widespread 0.20" in the
nrn half of the CWA. Most of that would be falling when it would
be SN. SLRs are very low (<10:1), and accums will be a max of
1-2" with the highest accums in Tioga & Sullivan Cos. A coating
(<1") is expected for much of the area before the SN turns to
RA. The precip should lift off to the NE and be over around
noon Tues. Temps max out in the upper 30s NE and near 50F
between AOO and HGR. Gusts will increase Tuesday evening to the
teens and 20s, but drop off through the day on Wed as high
pressure moves in.
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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

Happy first day of Winter to those that celebrate! We are at about our high temperatures for today with a cold front passing through this morning. Today’s temperatures will drop to freezing by evening. Below normal temperatures tomorrow with near normal high temperatures through Christmas Day. The warmest day of Christmas week looks to be on Boxing Day with temperatures well into the 40's and maybe even 50 in some valley locations. We turn chilly again on Saturday. It looks increasingly likely that snow will arrive by Tuesday morning's rush hour. We should see less than an inch of snow before any change to rain for most of the area with more up toward the Lehigh Valley. Additional rain shower chances for both Christmas and Friday.

image.png.6fd8e3ee71f9995df0c6b11721695939.pngimage.thumb.png.233b8893a3fcee0b76525fdc1f48ba93.png

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