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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs


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There's definitely no hype to some of these wind events this fall and early meteorological winter. As I said before I find in my general area that these events usually can't get there advertised winds to the ground and that hasn't been the case over the last few months. I've also had several extra truckloads of tree debris from all my clients this year from Union Deposit to Dillsburg. This morning is possibly one of the most gnarly wind event I can remember at my home since the historic low dew point derecho of 1989.

  Below is some information on the 1989 low dewpoint Derecho. One of the most interesting and rare weather event most of us got to experience in our lifetimes. Screenshot_20251219_204121_Chrome.thumb.jpg.1ca7981fef2d8e38398aae0ba9133010.jpg

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/6824/noaa_6824_DS1.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiai_iXisuRAxVzFlkFHbeBElcQFnoECFoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2L8H8kDzIM5k9RkZFJmF4U

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1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

Still over 16,000 customers of PPL without power this morning. 17 this morning.

My power went out 3 times, but was back on within 5 minutes. Some other people were less fortunate. 
We had 53 mph wind gust and a 1/4” of rain dumped on us in less than a couple minutes.

Crazy weather.

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0z GFS & 6z GFS are still showing interesting looks for potential Winter storm chances towards end of the month into the first few days of the New Year.

The onset of Blocking really throws models fits until they can see the full impact of the -NAO. If it sets up just right, we could be tracking a meaningful potential storm.

The 0z GFS showed this beauty of a chance at the end of its run.

 

IMG_1185.png

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A return to chillier weather today with highs in the mid-40's. We stay below normal through Monday with maybe some wet snow arriving toward Tuesday morning. This should turn to rain pretty quickly from SW To NE across the area. Temperatures look to be near normal for Christmas Eve Day before we rise to about 4 degrees above normal for Christmas Day. Boxing Day looks to be the warmest day of the week before we cool down as we move toward the New Year's holiday.

image.png.bc26f20924f56c62006e2cc1c305da86.pngimage.thumb.png.3e640a5eacd7191475da84a477170243.png

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

It’s going to 50+ Christmas day and even warmer - maybe pushing 60 -  Dec 26. Boooooooooo

Maybe in western PA, cool air has a good chance of holding in the rest of the state east of the Alleghenies Christmas Day. GFS a bit cooler than the Euro (actually slightly below average in eastern PA), but even the Euro only has MDT getting into the low 40s or so. Even if it did bust 50 degrees the +5 to 10 departure that would make high-wise is pretty tame compared to where the real torch is centered. + Anomalies Christmas Day in the central plains are bananas, in the realm of 30-40 degrees above average. We may have a couple fairly warm days on or just after Christmas, but the -NAO blocking is likely going to keep us from being overrun with any kind of warmth like that. 

12z GFS temps/anomalies

image.thumb.png.4e781b5969d40e9ff082297619b34650.png

image.thumb.png.8b7210fb0494409efb072e88468dc06a.png

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Maybe in western PA, cool air has a good chance of holding in the rest of the state east of the Alleghenies Christmas Day. GFS a bit cooler than the Euro (actually slightly below average in eastern PA), but even the Euro only has MDT getting into the low 40s or so. Even if it did bust 50 degrees the +5 to 10 departure that would make high-wise is pretty tame compared to where the real torch is centered. + Anomalies Christmas Day in the central plains are bananas, in the realm of 30-40 degrees above average. We may have a couple fairly warm days on or just after Christmas, but the -NAO blocking is likely going to keep us from being overrun with any kind of warmth like that. 

12z GFS temps/anomalies

image.thumb.png.4e781b5969d40e9ff082297619b34650.png

image.thumb.png.8b7210fb0494409efb072e88468dc06a.png

 

I hope (and believe) you're right. CTP is seeing something different because they have me in the 50s on Christmas day.

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so far going back through this winter the temp forecasts have not been very accurate when it comes to 1 how long cold or warm would last and 2 overall temps have busted lower then forecasted many times. 

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Finally looked back at Fridays stats for Tamaqua (my backyard). Max wind, as I mentioned earlier, was well below most places due to houses and nearby mountains sheltering my neighborhood.

High temp: 57

Low temp: 24

Wind gust: 16.2 mph

Rainfall: 1.26"

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