Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GFS got more interesting for the Tuesday am weak wave chance. This run gets 1 to 2 inches of snow into the LSV.

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z GFS got more interesting for the Tuesday am weak wave chance. This run gets 1 to 2 inches of snow into the LSV.

Snow is all gone here so would be nice to get a little cover Christmas week. 

[Superstorm]

Snow flurries


.

[Itstrainingtime]

I just had a house-shaking gust. Looks like a mid 50s gust down the road.

[Yardstickgozinya]

There's definitely no hype to some of these wind events this fall and early meteorological winter. As I said before I find in my general area that these events usually can't get there advertised winds to the ground and that hasn't been the case over the last few months. I've also had several extra truckloads of tree debris from all my clients this year from Union Deposit to Dillsburg. This morning is possibly one of the most gnarly wind event I can remember at my home since the historic low dew point derecho of 1989.

  Below is some information on the 1989 low dewpoint Derecho. One of the most interesting and rare weather event most of us got to experience in our lifetimes. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/6824/noaa_6824_DS1.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiai_iXisuRAxVzFlkFHbeBElcQFnoECFoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2L8H8kDzIM5k9RkZFJmF4U

[Voyager]

17 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My station is too protected to get anything close to accurate wind speeds. At the airport right down the road, a gust of 53mph was just recorded:

Mine is quite sheltered too. I had a peak wind gust of only 16.2 mph yesterday in my backyard.

[mahantango#1]

Still over 16,000 customers of PPL without power this morning. 17 this morning.

[canderson]

Found my downspout extenders. The wind took both off the end of my downspouts and blown them across the street into a field.  

[pawatch]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

Still over 16,000 customers of PPL without power this morning. 17 this morning.

My power went out 3 times, but was back on within 5 minutes. Some other people were less fortunate. 
We had 53 mph wind gust and a 1/4” of rain dumped on us in less than a couple minutes.

Crazy weather.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 23. Total rainfall was .54”. Have to host a big family gathering today. Lots of work to do this morning. Enjoy the weekend everyone!

[canderson]

42 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 23. Total rainfall was .54”. Have to host a big family gathering today. Lots of work to do this morning. Enjoy the weekend everyone!

What time is dinner -my invite I guess was lost in the mail. 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS & 6z GFS are still showing interesting looks for potential Winter storm chances towards end of the month into the first few days of the New Year.

The onset of Blocking really throws models fits until they can see the full impact of the -NAO. If it sets up just right, we could be tracking a meaningful potential storm.

The 0z GFS showed this beauty of a chance at the end of its run.

 

[canderson]

It’s going to 50+ Christmas day and even warmer - maybe pushing 60 -  Dec 26. Boooooooooo

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

What time is dinner -my invite I guess was lost in the mail. 

All are welcome! Arrive anytime after 1. Hints are that I have a 17601 zip code and live about one mile west of the west hempfield and east hempfield township line. Good luck and safe travels. 

[ChescoWx]

A return to chillier weather today with highs in the mid-40's. We stay below normal through Monday with maybe some wet snow arriving toward Tuesday morning. This should turn to rain pretty quickly from SW To NE across the area. Temperatures look to be near normal for Christmas Eve Day before we rise to about 4 degrees above normal for Christmas Day. Boxing Day looks to be the warmest day of the week before we cool down as we move toward the New Year's holiday.

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

It’s going to 50+ Christmas day and even warmer - maybe pushing 60 -  Dec 26. Boooooooooo

Maybe in western PA, cool air has a good chance of holding in the rest of the state east of the Alleghenies Christmas Day. GFS a bit cooler than the Euro (actually slightly below average in eastern PA), but even the Euro only has MDT getting into the low 40s or so. Even if it did bust 50 degrees the +5 to 10 departure that would make high-wise is pretty tame compared to where the real torch is centered. + Anomalies Christmas Day in the central plains are bananas, in the realm of 30-40 degrees above average. We may have a couple fairly warm days on or just after Christmas, but the -NAO blocking is likely going to keep us from being overrun with any kind of warmth like that. 

12z GFS temps/anomalies

 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Maybe in western PA, cool air has a good chance of holding in the rest of the state east of the Alleghenies Christmas Day. GFS a bit cooler than the Euro (actually slightly below average in eastern PA), but even the Euro only has MDT getting into the low 40s or so. Even if it did bust 50 degrees the +5 to 10 departure that would make high-wise is pretty tame compared to where the real torch is centered. + Anomalies Christmas Day in the central plains are bananas, in the realm of 30-40 degrees above average. We may have a couple fairly warm days on or just after Christmas, but the -NAO blocking is likely going to keep us from being overrun with any kind of warmth like that. 

12z GFS temps/anomalies

 

I hope (and believe) you're right. CTP is seeing something different because they have me in the 50s on Christmas day.

[anotherman]

I hope (and believe) you're right. CTP is seeing something different because they have me in the 50s on Christmas day.

CTP has the reaction time of a sloth. It’s really pathetic how overly conservative they are.

[Voyager]

Much to my chagrin, that beautiful warm air just can't get east of the mountains. Seeing Iowa and Nebraska in the 60s depresses me.