The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[rjvanals]

Having snow miss us to the south sucks but I'd rather it be a "storm" like this where the upside is 4" rather than be a storm with real upside

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Are we really going to get the Feb 19-20 treatment again?

You just don't understand how bringing up this storm is triggering for me.  Like a trigger finger on the ban button.

[stormtracker]

The Euro will save us.   

They still owe us from the first 50 years of the 20th century.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

The Euro is still by far the best model, i would rather have it in my camp than any other model. 

Two things can be true.  The euro products are still the best, and if you can only have one thing in your corner that is the one you want...but the euro is not so dominant over all other guidance that it's typically right when it's all on its own.  If that was true forecasts would just be a rip and read copy of the euro.  A consensus between all the guidance is still typically more accurate than any one model.  The real skill is knowing when one model "Might" be on to something that others are missing.  Using experience and history and pattern analysis to try to figure out what the right weights are in each specific situation.  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You just don't understand how bringing up this storm is triggering for me.  Like a trigger finger on the ban button.

I don't usually let busts get to me anymore...but that one...yea that one... 

[rjvanals]

Canadian is a close miss south

[biodhokie]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You just don't understand how bringing up this storm is triggering for me.  Like a trigger finger on the ban button.

worst birthday present ever.

[Interstate]

The problem is that we need something in the upper atmosphere to turn it up the coast... and just are not seeing that right now.

[SnowenOutThere]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't usually let busts get to me anymore...but that one...yea that one... 

It was perfectly executed cause as much harm as possible by having the Saturday 12z GFS finally cave to a snowstorm so for exactly one run we had all models showing a major storm. Masterful ragebait I gotta hand it to the atmosphere on that one.

[rjvanals]

The March 6 2013 "storm" was the most painful bust especially coming off the terrible 11/12 and 12/13 winters. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

UK also says no thanks....it would've been nice to get any model on board with the Euro.

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

The March 6 2013 "storm" was the most painful bust especially coming off the terrible 11/12 and 12/13 winters. 

Facts. That was like getting knee capped in church. 

[Imgoinhungry]

Southern part of this forum jackpotted last winter… isnt it our turn for us from gaithersburg to pa border!?


.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Southern part of this forum jackpotted last winter… isnt it our turn for us from gaithersburg to pa border!?


.

write a letter, make sure they know 

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Southern part of this forum jackpotted last winter… isnt it our turn for us from gaithersburg to pa border!?


.

In fairness I wouldn't lose sleep over this 1-3 inch snowstorm missing to the south if that happens. Now, if we get a December 2018 then its worth it.

[Cobalt]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

A freezing or sub freezing high temp for DCA would be incredibly impressive. That’s like a -20F departure or more.

6z Euro tops out at 28F for the 5th at DCA. Almanac data says the daily record low max is 25F from 1886. A day later and it would be threatening that record low max of 29F (1910). 

[IronTy]

26 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Southern part of this forum jackpotted last winter… isnt it our turn for us from gaithersburg to pa border!?


.

No.  

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

6z Euro tops out at 28F for the 5th at DCA. Almanac data says the daily record low max is 25F from 1886. A day later and it would be threatening that record low max of 29F (1910). 

Yea the cold push is legit. Might be why this storm isn't gaining latitude. If only we had just a bit more moisture to work with.

[Weather Will]

What is this?  Hunger games fighting over the track of a 2 inch storm?!  

[SnowenOutThere]

I think the 12z Euro should be pretty similar to its 6z run 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO ticked SE...

 

[NorthArlington101]

EURO a decent tick further south (or at least just less precip on the north end) with the best of it's goods but I'll still buy what it's selling.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO ticked SE...

We are splitting hairs here man. 12z

6z

[bncho]

12z Euro will make less friends than 6z or 0z but it's fine

 

 

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

We are splitting hairs here man. 12z

6z

For me that is incorrect, I went from 1.5 inches to .2.  Or I went from a dusting to a flurry.  I hope someone in M.A. gets 2 inches. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

For me that is incorrect, I went from 1.5 inches to .2.  Or I went from a dusting to a flurry.

Yes, but unfortunately that is around .1 of actual qdf! The general synoptic pattern is locked in so now we just get to see how exactly it plays out. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

We are splitting hairs here man. 12z

6z

Not really...See that all too familiar wall at Baltimore City? That wasn't there at 6z, and is in keeping with what all sliders have done since 2018.

[WxUSAF]

Don’t know why, but I’m feeling really invested in this one lol. We don’t get many chances for cold powder daytime snows, let alone in December. I want something Friday!

[Maestrobjwa]

Man I'm done tracking sliders. They don't make it here and I'm beyond over it, smh