December 2025 General Discussion

[frostfern]

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

We dont get big snows with temps in the teens and nw flow.

The trough has to retrograde a little to open up the gulf, which didn’t happen with this outbreak.  That doesn’t mean it’s impossible for a big dog to occur during a below average period.

[Stevo6899]

1 minute ago, frostfern said:

Unless you’re up in northern Minnesota, snow missing south has more to due weak disturbances with lack of phasing than temps being too cold.  Big dogs don’t have trouble cutting up into arctic airmasses, provided they have the necessary depth.  Pacific intrusions never help because they tend to split the jet.

Yes but the big dogs usually bring some warmer temps with more moisture, if they make it this far north with arctic air in place. There's a reason detroit didnt get more than 3 inches in one event in the cold pattern we've been in for 2 weeks+.

[frostfern]

4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yes but the big dogs usually bring some warmer temps with more moisture, if they make it this far north with arctic air in place. There's a reason detroit didnt get more than 3 inches in one event in the cold pattern we've been in for 2 weeks+.

They do, but that warmth has to come from the south due to a southern stream low phasing and strengthening, not from a Pacific garbage airmass coming in from the west.

[Chicago Storm]

We dont get big snows with temps in the teens and nw flow.

we don’t?

you may want to inform central illinois that their 6-9” on saturday was a mirage.

[Chicago Storm]

There's a reason detroit didnt get more than 3 inches in one event in the cold pattern we've been in for 2 weeks+.

bad placement.

take a break, hoss.

[A-L-E-K]

while i grow to hate cad more each passing year, you really do need deep cold nearby for the big dogs that really crank

[frostfern]

15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

while i grow to hate cad more each passing year, you really do need deep cold nearby for the big dogs that really crank

Yep.  The only exception I can think of is one of those late season stalled fronts where it’s shorts weather to the south and waves of snow a couple hundred miles north.  It isn’t the right time of year for that.  It’s late Feb through early April for that kind of setup.

Mid-winter big dogs need that arctic air nearby, usually to the NW.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

we don’t?

you may want to inform central illinois that their 6-9” on saturday was a mirage.

He doesn't consider 6-9" a big storm lol

[frostfern]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

He doesn't consider 6-9" a big storm lol

He’s still wrong though.  GHDI was on the heels of prolonged cold.  Maybe that one wasn’t so good for SE Michigan, but the problem wasn’t too much cold.

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, frostfern said:

He’s still wrong though.  GHDI was on the heels of prolonged cold.  Maybe that one wasn’t so good for SE Michigan, but the problem wasn’t too much cold.

I didnt say he isn't, just pointing that out. GHD1 was still a big storm here...it just failed to reach expectations in SE MI. Actually boggles my mind that this bust is still talked about with everything thats happened in the 15 years since. Its not like we expected 3 feet and got 0, we expected 12-18" and got 8-11"  GHDII (16.7" DTW) and Jan 22 2005 (12.2") were huge storms at Detroit with plenty of arctic air around...to say nothing of the insanity of Jan 6, 2014. Following nearly 11" of snow temps dropped to -14° in hours.

[frostfern]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I didnt say he isn't, just pointing that out. GHD1 was still a big storm here...it just failed to reach expectations in SE MI. Actually boggles my mind that this bust is still talked about with everything thats happened in the 15 years since. Its not like we expected 3 feet and got 0, we expected 12-18" and got 8-11"  GHDII (16.7" DTW) and Jan 22 2005 (12.2") were huge storms at Detroit with plenty of arctic air around...to say nothing of the insanity of Jan 6, 2014. Following nearly 11" of snow temps dropped to -14° in hours.

Yea.  I just don’t remember those storms as I was living in Seattle part of the time and missed them.  GHDI was better here in GRR (though still a little short of the forecast with 15” verified as opposed 18” forecast) while GHDII was more concentrated along I-94 with lighter totals north (8-12”).