Duca892 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago OP EURO was east as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ai terminated the good vibes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago starting to think this one could be a whiff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Quote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, MickeyTim6533 said: starting to think this one could be a whiff relax. plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, hazwoper said: relax. plenty of time. not really.......Not lots of time for the things that happen early on to change though. The storm may be 5 days out, but what happens day 1-3 matters a ton in how the storm plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago It's great that the suffering is kept to a minimum being only five days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, MickeyTim6533 said: not really.......Not lots of time for the things that happen early on to change though. The storm may be 5 days out, but what happens day 1-3 matters a ton in how the storm plays out I've doing this for years. Believe me, there is plenty of time. GFS had this storm as a bomb of Friday, lost it till early runs today. There is plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The other guys all started storm threads you can't do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Such small changes in the tilt of the upper low makes it much easier to bring this thing back. It’s not like we have short wave inference with a kicker or washed out short wave. Look how this past week went we are still in a great spot here. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago It has a good chance of coming back the weekend rule is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 days out from yesterday's storm we were all thinking either suppressed south or low impact all snow...... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: 5 days out from yesterday's storm we were all thinking either suppressed south or low impact all snow...... This is true. I explicitly remember GFS being squash city last Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago In other news it's the day after a good snowstorm with the coldest ending to January since 1994 plus the best looking February since 2015 Still not dug out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Still time to be a good hit, but it is a volatile setup according to what’s being posted, Need quite a few pieces to be in place. Still not dug out from this storm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Jeebus we have short memories! Didn't we learn anything from this past weekend?? Last week at this time we were looking at a suppressed storm. How did that work out? I'm not saying we're getting slammed this weekend. But let's give it to Thursday or so before pulling the plug. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago 13 minutes ago, hazwoper said: 5 days out from yesterday's storm we were all thinking either suppressed south or low impact all snow...... Yep, I still think we may have to worry about it being too tucked to the coast based on how last week played out. It’s a different set up but this ain’t over by a long shot. I’m out right now but I’m curious to actually see the euro and euro ai, I wonder if that low to the west that it had at 00z(believe it was in Montana or north of that) had anything to do with it. I saw it earlier and thought if that feature is any faster it possibly shunts everything east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago EPS a little more SE than we'd like this turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted 46 minutes ago Share Posted 46 minutes ago 6 minutes ago, Zeus said: EPS a little more SE than we'd like this turn. Yeah, but it is a pretty massive spread. Plenty of time. EDIT - in fact the spread is actually wider earlier on at 138hr as opposed to 144 which tells me they are having a hard time handling the upper level steering that has been showing it tuck back into the coast at that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago If a storm thread gets started before Thursday, I swear I will hunt you down!! Both landlord and my son were here. We're dug out. I have a flat tire AND a broken windshield washer thingy --on the driver's side of course! Son has the piece needed but he's in the tractor and the part is in his truck. I might be stuck home another day! Temps are going to dip this evening. It's frigid out there. @ 25F but sun feels nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 35 minutes ago Share Posted 35 minutes ago I like where we're at. If we see things continue to trend worse over the next 2-3 days, well then yeah this might just go OTS. Let's just hold it here and I'm fairly confident we can back this NW with favorable ticks with the ridge out west and the TPV split. There is absolutely no reason to be cliff jumping, I mean a lot of y'all just got double digit snows yesterday. We just saw very favorable shifts on the GFS suite, Canadian suite, and ICON. Lean on the ensembles for the next 2-3 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 33 minutes ago Share Posted 33 minutes ago 24 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Jeebus we have short memories! Didn't we learn anything from this past weekend?? Last week at this time we were looking at a suppressed storm. How did that work out? I'm not saying we're getting slammed this weekend. But let's give it to Thursday or so before pulling the plug. All I look at is the ensembles and the latest European indeed shows accumulating snows back through our area....that is all that matters not any one operational run. Suspect another busy tracking week ahead! Stay warm my friends!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 30 minutes ago Share Posted 30 minutes ago 2 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said: Wouldn’t it draw in warm air if the LP deepens too much? The storm almost becomes warm core secluded with intense CAA/N winds on the western side of the system. Plus when it becomes vertically stacked, it occludes and you lose that mid-level WAA. Such an intense system would have an intense thermal contrast and there'd be a CCB/fronto band on the western side that helps to cool the column as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 27 minutes ago Share Posted 27 minutes ago Yeah when the Ukie & Ai came out I had a feeling this would happen. Not throwing in the towel yet, if that bowling ball is farther N in latitude it still would work. The “what could have beens” are the hardest part of this hobby lol. Just a small change turned the euro from the Blizzard of 26 to OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted 25 minutes ago Share Posted 25 minutes ago Differences between 6Z Euro-AI and 12Z Euro-AI were very subtle. If you look at 12Z, the backside energy isn't getting phased into the storm as quickly. At 6Z, that energy was almost immediately getting pulled into the mix. I think that has to do with spacing between the waves and the elongation of the lobe itself. If it is more stretched, it is closer to the backside energy and more likely to phase the two. A more condensed lobe separates and moves too far east. Ridge position looks nearly identical to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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