Discussion OBS for minor to possibly moderate impact winter storm interior 4A Tue - midnight Tue 12/2/25, may bring first measurable snow-sleet to coastal areas including NYC

[qg_omega]

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s also southeast winds lol. That rarely works out!

28 here. It’ll jump 10 in an hour once it turns SE. 

[Picard]

Schools are closing already for tomorrow up this way.  I would've been out anyway battling the crud, but I still think these early calls in iffy setups are not sound decisions and people should plan for the possibility of a closing or delay being called.
The one thing we might have going for us is the low temps, which could lead to more icing if warm air overruns, especially in the AM.  I wouldn't rule that possibility out and I've seen us get stuck in the low 30s before with warm air just above.

 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

28/26f here.. colder then forecasted that's for sure. Whatever precip gets here won't be liquid to start.

[snywx]

17 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

28/26f here.. colder then forecasted that's for sure. Whatever precip gets here won't be liquid to start.

You will be above freezing before any precipitation falls 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

28 here. It’ll jump 10 in an hour once it turns SE. 

down to 26, coldest of the season. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

down to 26, coldest of the season. 

25 here. Shame it's for nothing. 

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

25 here. Shame it's for nothing. 

Yea plummeting now, 25 here as well. At least it cools down the local waters for later in the season 

[eduggs]

Two things I've noticed while looping recent HRRR runs... the model has been playing catchup for 6 or 7 runs on temperatures overnight. It has been steadily correcting colder throughout the Northeast. And it hasn't been correcting (i.e., trading off) dewpoints to compensate. It's a cold airmass.

The second thing that is well depicted is the strong surge of warmth/higher dewpoints coming from the SSE right into our area during the day tomorrow. That should warm the boundary layer in a hurry.

That suggests maybe there could be a quick burst of snow/sleet (surprisingly heavy?) to just west of I-95 tomorrow morning with snow then changing to rain pretty far north of the area as the day progresses.

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, snywx said:

You will be above freezing before any precipitation falls 

Yeah that ocean wind will raise temps for any coastal areas pretty quick.
I am at 27 right now, which might be the low for the overnight hours. 

 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

 It's crazy how much bust potential is involved here,any tick s and e and we all back in the game. All it takes is a mile here or 10 miles there. Also 0z gfs ticked cooler. Patterson,nj is now the furthest west the rain falls.

[TJW014]

Sitting above freezing here with the slightest onshore breeze. Just inland is in the low 20s and still dropping. Wouldn't be surprised if inland South Jersey starts off as wintry precip tomorrow

[Wannabehippie]

13 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

 It's crazy how much bust potential is involved here,any tick s and e and we all back in the game. All it takes is a mile here or 10 miles there. Also 0z gfs ticked cooler. Patterson,nj is now the furthest west the rain falls.

The Euro has been pretty consistent. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

definitely colder than forecasted 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

It's 27/18f. Much colder then my 32 degree forecast. The precip is racing our way currently.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

 It's crazy how much bust potential is involved here,any tick s and e and we all back in the game. All it takes is a mile here or 10 miles there. Also 0z gfs ticked cooler. Patterson,nj is now the furthest west the rain falls.

Keep in mind the antecedent high pressure is moving away. So it's cold now, but once the HP exits in the next 4-6 hours, temps will rise.

WX/PT

[NorthShoreWx]

Looks like some light OES (or freezing drizzle) in the southerly flow, mostly near and east of the CT/RI border.  Maybe a few snowflakes, but illustrates the wind direction nicely.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

6 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Looks like some light OES (or freezing drizzle) in the southerly flow, mostly near and east of the CT/RI border.  Maybe a few snowflakes, but illustrates the wind direction nicely.

Out there yes,it's a se flow. Here in the city we still have a northerly flow. It's 31/26 with a nne wind here in the bronx. Whatever precip makes it here will fall likely fall frozen. Winds haven't shifted southerly yet..

[ForestHillWx]

28/19; precip out in PA. Just got the call that our school district has closed.

Gotta admit this one is frustrating due to pending work schedule for both of us; a delay would have been somewhat more manageable. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, ForestHillWx said:

28/19; precip out in PA. Just got the call that our school district has closed.

Gotta admit this one is frustrating due to pending work schedule for both of us; a delay would have been somewhat more manageable. 

Yeah its about to be wintry really fast by your area. Much colder then anticipated im guessing also. Alot of icing problems.