First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Will close to the water?

No you. I thought Kev was talking about you.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Rains to ME?

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You ?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

No you. I thought Kev was talking about you.

Why when I directly asked Will ? Cocked?

[Lava Rock]

You ?

I welcome it. Still in a biblical drought

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[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

What are you looking for? Foot plus? Wait a week when we have pure Arctic Air antecedent days . There's your high end. This is a 6 to 8 for the best 

Whooooosh.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

I welcome it. Still in a biblical drought

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Dendy always says droughts don’t matter in the winter 

[rimetree]

I'd sign for the GFS

[CoastalWx]

I feel like we’ve had three seasons straight of hammering how bad clown maps are in borderline situations and here we are slapping dongs to them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Not really, he has high amounts much farther south

I just gave it a quick eyeball....matched up generally speaking, I didn't compare it that specifically. 

[CoastalWx]

Avg snow for the  winter season based off clown maps since 2022 has been about 65” 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like we’ve had three seasons straight of hammering how bad clown maps are in borderline situations and here we are slapping dongs to them.

Does this bear any similarities to that early Dec event last year?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Does this bear any similarities to that early Dec event last year?

Is that the one where you got like 8 inches? Honestly, except for a couple events,  I pretty much took one of those pens from men in black and erased everything up to 2022. So I have no clue.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The weaker SE solutions don’t necessarily translate to snow. If the whole thing is just weak sauce it’s so borderline it’s going to be white rain

[CoastalWx]

Probably will do the same with this. Whoever does it, just give me a fake scenario where I got 10” of paste. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Is that the one where you got like 8 inches? Honestly, except for a couple events,  I pretty much took one of those pens from men in black and erased everything up to 2022. So I have no clue.

Yeah that one . Not that this is that at all . Just wondering if anything similar 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

8” max now . Most should end up 3-6” which is perfect . December is winter and always used to snow start to finish . It’s back 

Yes, this was never going to be more than 8" IMO.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that one . Not that this is that at all . Just wondering if anything similar 

I honestly don’t remember the set up in that one, I think that was more of an elevated deal if I recall.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

It's amazing how close it is to all snow on the GFS for interior CT.  925 temps are around .5 to 1.5 Celsius during peak warming.. surface 32-34 , 850s around freezing .. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly don’t remember the set up in that one, I think that was more of an elevated deal if I recall.

It was . I have a feeling elevation will matter in this to a lesser degree 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's amazing how close it is to all snow on the GFS for interior CT.  925 temps are around .5 to 1.5 Celsius during peak warming.. surface 32-34 , 850s around freezing .. 

Doesn’t the GFS have a warm bias? I feel like Will has mentioned that many many times over the years 

[CoastalWx]

AI looks a tad slower and stronger vs 12z. Maybe similar track. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

18z GEFS more spread at 12z Tuesday but more consolidate by 18z Tuesday.

[ineedsnow]

18z EURO bumping north a bit

[MJO812]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18z EURO bumping north a bit

Similiar to 12z but more precip

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Similiar to 12z but more precip

Dual lows

[CoastalWx]

Euro is doing an awful double low thing. It’s definitely effing it up. But it could also be real.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is doing an awful double low thing. It’s definitely effing it up. But it could also be real.

Don't worry, it will consolidate into a blizzard in time for that fat, bald dude to do his obnoxious siren video, and collect another 5,236 followers.

[WinterWolf]

8 hours ago, das said:

Sorry, the data just does not bear this out.  The steady progression of model fidelity and accuracy continues and will actually start another upward spike as AI-based models are integrated with physics-based models. 

 

Sorry, das Bullshit! Compared to what it was 8 yrs ago, the Frieken thing blows now! Period! 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Sorry, das Bullshit! Compared to what it was 8 yrs ago, the Frieken thing blows now! Period! 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Sorry, das Bullshit! Compared to what it was 8 yrs ago, the Frieken thing blows now! Period! 

The reason you have this impression is because it's run more often now, which provides more opportunity for error, but it is actually more accurate in the mean.