Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Baum]

11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Dusters and cad aren't my jam

I know. Get the cold and the snow will come.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

The GFS keeps Minneapolis below zero for ~72hrs next weekend. Good stuff. 

[Chicago Storm]

Dusters and cad aren't my jam

i’m waiting for the dry part of the CAD to show up.

[Geoboy645]

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

The GFS keeps Minneapolis below zero for ~72hrs next weekend. Good stuff. 

Yeah this cold blast could be significant from a duration perspective. Nothing super crazy for temps, but we could be talking at least a week of sub 20 highs if we undershoot Wednesday by a couple degrees which is possible with the fresh snowpack. The Holiday cold wave was sub 20 for 12 days here so that's the modern mark for duration of a cold wave imo.

[nvck]

OV the place to be next weekend ??

 

[A-L-E-K]

And it's gone

[ILSNOW]

 Not for Oklahoma and Arkansas.

[A-L-E-K]

Powerball pattern

[DocATL]

If you want snow gotta move south.

[DocATL]

i’m waiting for the dry part of the CAD to show up.

Euro seems to have that nice dry CAD we’ve been hoping for. Nice southern snow signal across the models.

I’m all in on a warm February even if it’s without the goods.

[A-L-E-K]

Ugliest euro run of the winter?

[Chicago Storm]

Euro seems to have that nice dry CAD we’ve been hoping for.

three shots of accumulating snow over the next week is the opposite of CAD.

[cutlew]

The GFS keeps Minneapolis below zero for ~72hrs next weekend. Good stuff. 

The Euro is even colder and has us -10 to -25 for about 48h from midnight Friday AM to midnight Sunday AM


.

[A-L-E-K]

Cad classic

 

[Chicago Storm]

Cad classic

tth

[cyclone77]

CAD would be correct if it stood for cold and dusters.

[nvck]

euro ensemble keeps trending colder for next weekend, though the gefs has yet to really cave.

[beavis1729]

Nice

[A-L-E-K]

Looks like pure zzzzs after the midweek duster

[Radtechwxman]

Im in a piss poor spot for anything. Clippers missing me north and the southern stream systems well south. I love cold and dry. Bring on tornado season at this point. 

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, Radtechwxman said:

Im in a piss poor spot for anything. Clippers missing me north and the southern stream systems well south. I love cold and dry. Bring on tornado season at this point. 

p rough, most of the qpf over n il is the mid week duster so things about to get extra north dakota mode later this week

[nvck]

Record lowest max temp for jan 23 in mt pleasant is 7. 

New euro ensemble has a high of -3 on that day....

[DocATL]

Impressive run to run consistency on southern snow/ice while we clamor for clipper scraps.

[Chicago916]

Verbatim, if something like the latest Canadian happens, wouldn't the thermodynamics for lake effect be nuclear given the Arctic air mass? Doubt that happens though but the timing of the cold air could allow for that. 

[A-L-E-K]

let's ride it

[Chicago Storm]

Verbatim, if something like the latest Canadian happens, wouldn't the thermodynamics for lake effect be nuclear given the Arctic air mass? Doubt that happens though but the timing of the cold air could allow for that. 

the GEM (and RGEM to an extent) over-do cold temperatures, sometimes significantly so.

[Chicago916]

13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

the GEM (and RGEM to an extent) over-do cold temperatures, sometimes significantly so.

Yeah. It's the 2nd worst verification score for medium range models I think. Definitely not believing it's output this model run, but I guess it does show probably the best outcome up here because I doubt anything can overcome high pressure as strong as what's progged.

[Powerball]

56 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Impressive run to run consistency on southern snow/ice while we clamor for clipper scraps.

Hate to see it, but still plenty of time for more changes...

[WestMichigan]

53 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

Verbatim, if something like the latest Canadian happens, wouldn't the thermodynamics for lake effect be nuclear given the Arctic air mass? Doubt that happens though but the timing of the cold air could allow for that. 

When it gets very cold, lake effect goes from dendrites to tiny ice crystals and doesn't stack up very fast.  Makes for very poor visibility but not great accumulations.