Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[sbnwx85]

Last hour of the HRRR plus kuchera amounts. It’s making me a little nervous seeing how far north that warm air is budging in… and a potential dry slot.

[Baum]

^ somewhat expected. - perLOT AFD
 

THE INCREASINGLY FAVORED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM WEST-   CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY   AFTERNOON AND NIGHT INDICATES THAT SNOWFALL QUALITY WILL   DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL WARMING OCCURS   BELOW AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT   AREAS EAST OF I-57 MIX WITH OR EVEN BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO   DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL   THEN DEPART LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, ENDING   THE BROADER SYNOPTIC PRECIP POTENTIAL.  

[Sciascia]

Operational NAM cooking up another weenie run, especially for E IA/NW IL/SW WI. Hi-res NAM still high but a couple inches lesser.

[SchaumburgStormer]

6 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

NAM cooking up another weenie run, especially for E IA/NW IL/SW WI

Widespread 10-12+. Would be fun

[Harry Perry]

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

I don’t know what kind of ratios this is.  I prefer to look at 10:1 and bump it up a little in my head.  It’s hard to get 15:1 or better this time of year without lake enhancement.  WAA snow tends to be somewhat denser, at least in my area with E wind off the land.

I did read somewhere in one of the previous AFD’s that ratios would be as high as 16-17:1 which would be pretty impressive by November standards. 

[hawkeye_wx]

This evening's regionals/CAMs have not backed off at all.  In fact, every model so far has inched farther north. (NAM/3kNAM/FV3/RDPS/HRRR/RRFS)

[ChiTownSnow]

Fully sampled with tonights runs or tomorrow morning? 

[frostfern]

12 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

I did read somewhere in one of the previous AFD’s that ratios would be as high as 16-17:1 which would be pretty impressive by November standards. 

That would be unusual.  I’m just used to dry layers below the DGZ screwing with flake size during WAA snow events with an east wind, especially the early part of the storm.  The good thing is this is a long duration event.

[nwohweather]

Shocked there hasn’t been a huge March north. I’d lean 2-4” for Toledo and 3-6” for places west of I-75 to the border

[Sciascia]

00z GFS nearly a carbon copy of 18z in terms of snow amounts