Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[Chicago Storm]

NOW it won’t happen.

[ChiTownSnow]

The kiss of death here

The AI model seems to have a good beat on this one. Pretty consistent with the lead wave

[WestMichigan]

7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

The kiss of death here

The AI model seems to have a good beat on this one. Pretty consistent with the lead wave

I see the AI model referenced frequently.  Is this publicly available or behind a paywall?

[Malacka11]

2 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I see the AI model referenced frequently.  Is this publicly available or behind a paywall?

If it's at all helpful, I know that Tropical Tidbits offers some euro AI data with Pivotal Weather having a more extensive selection of publicly available products, including basic snowfall output for the euro AI and maybe its ensemble. 

https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf_aifs/sn10_acc-imp/conus?run=2025112412&forecastHour=156

[Radtechwxman]

Funny GFS was the one being aggressive with this before and euro not as much now gfs barely has anything and Euro has really uptrended. Definitely keeping my expectations low. At least we got an active pattern ahead. 

[sbnwx85]

IWX favoring the foreign solutions early on.

Friday through Monday...

Some lake effect is likely to linger into Friday, possibly briefly
shifting into NW Indiana for a period until the low level ridge axis
finally passes through Friday night in response to the next area of
low pressure taking shape. While models remain in agreement on a
baroclinic zone establishing itself across the area over the
weekend, timing and ptype issues persist, leading to an uncertain
forecast for those likely travelling home from the holiday weekend.
EC/GEM brings in precipitation during the day Sat with temp profiles
cold enough for all snow through Sat night before shifting east. GFS
delays precip till at least Sunday and maybe not till Monday, which
would suggest more of a mix to possibly all rain. The current
forecast leans towards the faster solution at this time with likely
pops Sat/Sat night. As would be expected this far out, confidence in
finer details is not overly high but worth watching.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

NOW it won’t happen.

“Potential”is the key word. Your maturing as a forecaster and have learned the 3 key letters of good forecasting CYA. It’s been a pleasure watching you grow through the years.

[Radtechwxman]

GFS still not playing nice on 18z

[Malacka11]

11 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

GFS still not playing nice on 18z

It's definitely at least a slight reversal though, right? I would say (just looking at my blues and greens ofc) that the front end of this threaded event looks a bit stronger and the possible follow-up event is also back. The overall synoptic evolution looks somewhat closer to what other models are showing. Combined with what chi storm was saying that's good enough for me

[Radtechwxman]

10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

It's definitely at least a slight reversal though, right? I would say (just looking at my blues and greens ofc) that the front end of this threaded event looks a bit stronger and the possible follow-up event is also back. The overall synoptic evolution looks somewhat closer to what other models are showing. Combined with what chi storm was saying that's good enough for me

Yeah follow up storm on edge of waa snows is just more west and north so draws up a big slug of warm air so precip goes all liquid. Euro further south with baroclinic zone and develops low much further south and cuts it more east. Allows for good waa snows than a nice wraparound with low. 

[sbnwx85]

18z Euro a little further north again. Totals around N. IN and SW. MI includes the lake effect from Thursday.

 

[ChiTownSnow]

If that L can eject out of the Rockies a bit quicker , it can catch up, be a bit flatter and ride that lead wave. 

[Baum]

1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said:

18z Euro a little further north again. Totals around N. IN and SW. MI includes the lake effect from Thursday.

 

Would be rare indeed to see that kind of snowfall this early. Though I guess we all know to slash ratios at this time of year. Positive would be this type of event falls into a number of winter projections this year. So perhaps it’s a tell.

[sbnwx85]

11 minutes ago, Baum said:

Would be rare indeed to see that kind of snowfall this early. Though I guess we all know to slash ratios at this time of year. Positive would be this type of event falls into a number of winter projections this year. So perhaps it’s a tell.

Yea, I was thinking that based solely on climo, the rain/snow line ends up much further north than currently forecast. Not a bad look, though, for late November. As you say, hopefully a sign of good things to come.

[sbnwx85]

GFS is a step in the right direction.

[Malacka11]

Good runs on both the gfs and gem

[Radtechwxman]

0z gfs for $500 Alex. Wowza. Multiple waves. If only we could lock that in now

[migratingwx]

00z Euro held course for Chicago.

 

[migratingwx]

With snowcover, Euro puts O'Hare at -1°F next Monday morning. 

[ChiTownSnow]

2 hours ago, migratingwx said:

00z Euro held course for Chicago.

 

different solution than GFS..but same outcome 

[Baum]

Cruel overnight runs sounds like.

[DocATL]

ICON feels more realistic, talking completely out of my arse. Whatever has the lowest totals. Also rain nosing northward on Euro after the early thump so there’s that too.

[nvck]

Quote

The above is just to give a rough idea of the spectrum of
outcomes, which range from a light to moderate event on some of
the guidance members, to a bonafide snowstorm on a surprisingly
large % of members. Can`t ignore this despite it being far out

LOT AFD

[sbnwx85]

6z Euro held serve and the 6z GFS was another step in the right direction. Warm air nudging in too far north is definitely a concern moving forward, but so far, so good.

[jlauderdal]

23 minutes ago, DocATL said:

ICON feels more realistic, talking completely out of my arse. Whatever has the lowest totals. Also rain nosing northward on Euro after the early thump so there’s that too.

EURO AI is more promising, keeping the freeze line farther south.  It's a favorable setup to keep snow plows busy.

[Baum]

The early ride up the roller coaster is my favorite part.

[ILSNOW]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

ICON feels more realistic, talking completely out of my arse. Whatever has the lowest totals. Also rain nosing northward on Euro after the early thump so there’s that too.

12z Icon welcome aboard

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[Radtechwxman]

Riding the rain/snow line on models. Imagine that. Lol. Scary place to be. I can't afford any north bumps. 

[RCNYILWX]

The last two EPS runs have been mighty impressive, which is usually the guidance suite you want on your side. Too far out to be super confident but if we don't see any sig backsliding, chances are pretty decent even at this lead time for the biggest synoptic event in this part of the subforum since the two weeks of winter in January 2024 (which isn't saying all that much given the lack of snow last winter).

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