December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[clueless]

It’s a Christmas gift just having something to track.  

[stormy]

I lost 1.13"  qp with the 12z run thru Saturday evening.     BAD DEAL

Of course, the idea is still there..................... 

[mitchnick]

AIGFS is colder aloft than Gfs fwiw. 

[Paleocene]

Canadians north. Toss

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AIGFS is colder aloft than Gfs fwiw. 

Exactly.

It is also important to watch where models track the redeveloping slp. AIGFS is off the VA/NC border. Thats pretty key.

Eta: is a function of the  nao and the hp strength so yeah, all interconnected here

[TowsonWeather]

15 minutes ago, T. August said:

Damn I didn’t think it would fold so quick

Really dude? lol

[AlexD1990]

10 minutes ago, clueless said:

It’s a Christmas gift just having something to track.  

this. better than being bored.

[Ji]

I was tracking 71 on boxing day 2 days ago. Now im tracking a wintry mix.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

this. better than being bored.

And tracking if we can hit 80 in Dec lol. I honestly think this is just the beginning of something really interesting happening. Blocks are fun. They do fun stuff without a lot of lead time. I have a feeling this is going to evolve into a coastal storm. 

[AlexD1990]

7 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

And tracking if we can hit 80 in Dec lol. I honestly think this is just the beginning of something really interesting happening. Blocks are fun. They do fun stuff without a lot of lead time. I have a feeling this is going to evolve into a coastal storm. 

It would be nice. The January 22 storm was a lot of fun in these parts.

[stormy]

34 minutes ago, T. August said:

Damn I didn’t think it would fold so quick

What folded?

[baltosquid]

GEFS moved south, pretty noticeably.

[T. August]

15 minutes ago, stormy said:

What folded?

It was a joke - I said Trenton-NYC will be the jackpot then 10 minutes later the GFS showed exactly that.

[NorthArlington101]

11 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

GEFS moved south, pretty noticeably.

A rainbow of options for sure. 

I'm going to (likely) be in Staunton for this one so I don't think I care too much what happens. Probably face the wrath of my girlfriend and retreat back to DC if it somehow trends to a higher end advisory storm, otherwise I'm fine missing a sleet/ice mess. 

[87storms]

On 12/20/2025 at 9:39 PM, EastCoast NPZ said:

And not just snow storms.   It's any storm.

I had to come to Vegas to get a flood watch lol.

 

[T. August]

14 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

GEFS moved south, pretty noticeably.

Pretty significant improvement. Wetter and colder. Kind of surprised to see how many snowy solutions there are.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

A rainbow of options for sure. 

I'm going to (likely) be in Staunton for this one so I don't think I care too much what happens. Probably face the wrath of my girlfriend and retreat back to DC if it somehow trends to a higher end advisory storm, otherwise I'm fine missing a sleet/ice mess. 

Plenty of time too.

[baltosquid]

Just now, T. August said:

Pretty significant improvement. Wetter and colder. Kind of surprised to see how many snowy solutions there are.

Yeah op was a disappointment but also given how quickly the presentation of this event is changing, really shouldn’t get discouraged with the ensembles still trending south. We’ll probably windshield wiper along the way even if it does pan out for us.

[baltosquid]

Also might have missed mention of it but the Ukie also moved south, still just some light mixy stuff for northern parts of the subforum though.

[bncho]

Look at that SW trend! 2" in Baltimore as well!

 

[baltosquid]

Euro AI was another nudge SW, nothing too dramatic though.

[Ruin]

shit id take 2 inches Just hope it lays enough to be called a white christmas. i remember years back we had snow it accumulated a good amount but then local weather did the song and dance we ddint get enough snow to be called a white christmas even tho everything was covered.  

[AlexD1990]

39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

A rainbow of options for sure. 

I'm going to (likely) be in Staunton for this one so I don't think I care too much what happens. Probably face the wrath of my girlfriend and retreat back to DC if it somehow trends to a higher end advisory storm, otherwise I'm fine missing a sleet/ice mess. 

P02 please and thank you.

[TSSN+]

Euro pretty much the same as 0z 

[Ji]

Euro pretty much the same as 0z 

No it was colder

[stormy]

1 hour ago, T. August said:

It was a joke - I said Trenton-NYC will be the jackpot then 10 minutes later the GFS showed exactly that.

That"s fine!   You're good!

For those who may seriously be disgruntled because of the 12z run of the GFS, take heart.

Yes, hp was weaker and qp less, but this is 4 days away.  As long as it holds on to the general idea, we have a long ways to go.

[baltosquid]

EPS mean snow depth (I don’t have a sub to look at actual quantity on pivotal) moved SW some

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

No it was colder

I mean sure if you’re talking about a few nose hairs colder. 

[TSG]

51 minutes ago, Ruin said:

shit id take 2 inches Just hope it lays enough to be called a white christmas. i remember years back we had snow it accumulated a good amount but then local weather did the song and dance we ddint get enough snow to be called a white christmas even tho everything was covered.  

This storm is on the 26th

[mitchnick]

AIEURO came south with snowfall.