December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Oh and off-topic...but @stormtracker, you changed your Beethoven icon look I see??

Indeed

[stormtracker]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ohhh you'd better believe it!! Which reminds me I'm gonna start the listening binge early and make it a multi-day thing! Oh hey @stormtracker you never watched "The Genius of Beethoven" did you? Lol Both of ya if you haven't seen it, go on YouTube and watch, I'm telling ya. Best docudrama on Beethoven and a brilliant portrayal by Paul Ries.

imma check it out!

[stormtracker]

GFS looks about the same...scoots just south of us

[Ji]

00z HRR/NAM would get DCA and IAD to ~100% of December snowfall climo.

What Nam?

[pazzo83]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just now realizing how delusional it is to truly be trying to extrap the hour 15 of the HRRR its like this

curry would make this tho

[SnowenOutThere]

13 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

curry would make this tho

So what I'm hearing is that I'm the Curry of HRRR extrapolations? Should put that on the wall and in my signature tbh

[stormtracker]

GFS has a little something sliding through on the 12th.  Weird accum distribution..but like an inch or two

[stormtracker]

H5 for the follow up got worse unfortunately.  Flatter out west

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

H5 for the follow up got worse unfortunately.  Flatter out west

While the ridge is a bit diminished I think its more so the NS is just completely different around hours 105 which I don't think helps us out. 

[SnowenOutThere]

I tried analyzing how those like 15 NS interactions would impact a downstream storm and all I could gleam was this:

[Ji]

H5 for the follow up got worse unfortunately.  Flatter out west

Hard to believe the GFS is not exactly the same eight days out as it was the last run

[stormtracker]

59 minutes ago, Ji said:

Hard to believe the GFS is not exactly the same eight days out as it was the last run

It’s much like your mood when you post. Lots of wild swings every 6 hours. 

[Steve25]

Tonight’s Euro is probably the worst case scenario in terms of cashing in on our December cold. There’s the mid-week clipper well to the north and then just a whole lot of nothing before a warm up leading into Christmas. 

[dailylurker]

I could hear the crickets in here before I opened the thread lol

[mitchnick]

39 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I could hear the crickets in here before I opened the thread lol

Miserable runs for many.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Miserable runs for many.

Hey.. at least VA gets more cold smoke tomorrow. The annual Christmas torch looks to be gaining legs. Hopefully this isn't our two weeks of winter for the season lol

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Hey.. at least VA gets more cold smoke tomorrow. The annual Christmas torch looks to be gaining legs. Hopefully this isn't our two weeks of winter for the season lol

Not so sure about the Christmas torch, at least according to yesterday's Euro weeklies. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512060000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202512150000

[CAPE]

There is still a shot at some snow late week, probably Friday. Multiple cold fronts coming through mid week into the weekend with all sorts of vorticity in the flow. Hard for models to pin down. Probably something on the lighter side if it does happen.

[CAPE]

44 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not so sure about the Christmas torch, at least according to yesterday's Euro weeklies. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512060000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202512150000

The pattern goes zonal at the end of the latest EPS and GEFS runs leading up to Christmas, but verbatim temps would be average to slightly below. 15 days out so fwiw as always.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The pattern goes zonal at the end of the latest EPS and GEFS runs leading up to Christmas, but verbatim temps would be average to slightly below. 15 days out so fwiw as always.

Long range warm-ups have generally been muted or reversed this season. So anyone hoping for lower heating bills better be prepared for no end. The pattern has to break at some point, of course, with February being the likely time frame if January fails. The problem remains snowfall as usual. 

[Weather Will]

Latest WB weeklies Dec. 20 to Jan. 20.  Looks pretty good to me.  Not a suppressed look and a little below normal temps and above normal precip. works in January.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Long range warm-ups have generally been muted or reversed this season. So anyone hoping for lower heating bills better be prepared for no end. The pattern has to break at some point, of course, with February being the likely time frame if January fails. The problem remains snowfall as usual. 

I’m going to keep being skeptical of SE ridges past D5-7. Maybe it happens this time just in time for Santa. 

[frd]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest WB weeklies Dec. 20 to Jan. 20.  Looks pretty good to me.  Not a suppressed look and a little below normal temps and above normal precip. works in January.

Euro seasonal is warm generally in the January to March period.

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, frd said:

Euro seasonal is warm generally in the January to March period.

And it was AN for November and December and we've seen how that's turned out. All those seasonal models, except the Cansips, are seemingly programmed for AN as the default. 

[Interstate]

10 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

curry would make this tho

He has 1K threes more then anyone else in NBA history. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

And it was AN for November and December and we've seen how that's turned out. All those seasonal models, except the Cansips, are seemingly programmed for AN as the default. 

Last year the Euro seasonal run in December had above normal for January and last January ended up well below normal.

[CAPE]

12z HRRR is further north with the wave for Monday. Gets SW/Southern DC burbs on the northern edge of precip. An inch or so for S MD over to the lower eastern Shore.

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z HRRR is further north with the wave for Monday. Gets SW/Southern DC burbs on the northern edge of precip. An inch or so for S MD over to the lower eastern Shore.

I saw that. Hopefully the gfs comes north some. I want to visit black water refuge tomorrow but I need that snow to come north. 

[Bob Chill]

LR ensembles have done poorly with the AO/NAO since the beginning of November. The GEFS 7 day progs are usually pretty darn close to reality but the last 2 sharp drops werent modeled well and the recent one was totally missed. This is the primary reason that LR "warmups" havent materialized. 

Right now ens seem to agree on a flip positive for both the AO and NAO. That would support a warming trend into mid month. My gut says there will be a relax but how much and for how long is hard to get a handle on given recent trends. My guess is blocking will redevelop before the end of the month so the warm period won't have legs if it happens. Personally, I'm leaning towards blocking coming back and another period of decent wintry weather before we close out the month. Fits the pattern personality we've been seeing so far. 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

LR ensembles have done poorly with the AO/NAO since the beginning of November. The GEFS 7 day progs are usually pretty darn close to reality but the last 2 sharp drops werent modeled well and the recent one was totally missed. This is the primary reason that LR "warmups" havent materialized. 

Right now ens seem to agree on a flip positive for both the AO and NAO. That would support a warming trend into mid month. My gut says there will be a relax but how much and for how long is hard to get a handle on given recent trends. My guess is blocking will redevelop before the end of the month so the warm period won't have legs if it happens. Personally, I'm leaning towards blocking coming back and another period of decent wintry weather before we close out the month. Fits the pattern personality we've been seeing so far. 

We had the SSW (barely) a few weeks ago which threw the models going warm for a loop. Now we have another Stratosphere warming, though not a technical SSW with negative winds, coming around the 15th per attachment.  I think we'll need to wait until after the 20th-25th to see how that effects the AO/NAO.