December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not sure how this gets weenied as it’s just a fact per models they don’t show nothing in the extended period precipitation wise but keep it chilly. 

The number of vorts flying around gives me some hope that we can get something in the right spot over the next two weeks. Does suck to exit a period of tracking with nothing obvious on the horizon. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Yeah sounds accurate to me. Something could definitely pop up but looks northern stream driven for the next 10 days atleast. Hoping to get a clipper get underneath of us.

Yup

 

[Paleocene]

We need the cold air first to win (at least in UHI-world). So i'll take the cold and hope for the best.

[yoda]

Euro is interesting at 162...

[WxUSAF]

Euro says wait 7 days and we’re back baby

[NorthArlington101]

Northern crew avert your eyes. Would be amazing to be back to tracking again. Was briefly mourning having nothing to look at. 

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Northern crew avert your eyes. Would be amazing to be back to tracking again. Was briefly mourning having nothing to look at. 

This is the one that’s going to screw all you greedy southerners. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, ravensrule said:

This is the one that’s going to screw all you greedy southerners. 

You’re joking but it’s true. Clipper type systems are likely going to trend north with time. So far north that AI and gfs already have it too far north 

[Chris78]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Northern crew avert your eyes. Would be amazing to be back to tracking again. Was briefly mourning having nothing to look at. 

I might be reaped if that happens....

[TSSN+]

10 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

This is the one that’s going to screw all you greedy southerners. 

Eh atmospheric memory. They will win again lol. We cooked 

[TSSN+]

Euro ai for that storm

 

[ravensrule]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro ai for that storm

 

Lol. Let’s do it. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Lol. Let’s do it. 

Clippers have been so rare, be nice to get one 

[H2O]

Good thing storms a week away always happen as they are shown now

[WxUSAF]

Not a ton of support in EPS to the Euro op’s solution of a storm passing well south of us. But looks like a good handful or two. Just eyeballing Pivotal maps.

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Don't look now, but the extended 00z EPS cancels out any major warm up through New Year's. While the pattern does not appear favorable for a HECS, it sure as heck beat Pacific Puke for Christmas.

I'm not writing off Pac Puke just yet.  The solstice warm-up seems to be the most unstoppable atmospheric force on earth for 15+ years.  It hasn't mattered whether we're in Nino, Nina or Nada.  It hasn't mattered whether the first half of the month was good, bad or meh. It hasn't always meant a warm Christmas day per se as we've had a couple of powerful yet ultimately transient cold shots.  And several times we've had normalish surface temps but with torched mid and upper levels.

2017 - 2018 is probably the biggest exception to this rule that I can remember off the top of my head.  It was warm right before Christmas but then turned chilly on Christmas day and then brutally cold around New Years and the first 10 days or so of January.  Even then it was a dry cold with no big storms.

[Chris78]

42 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Clippers have been so rare, be nice to get one 

What's great about the 12z euro is 2 clippers are north and 1 clipper south. 

M/D area in the screw zone for all.

Dought it goes down like that but it's comically sad for our area.

[bncho]

38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not a ton of support in EPS to the Euro op’s solution of a storm passing well south of us. But looks like a good handful or two. Just eyeballing Pivotal maps.

Very true, and I'm okay with that. It shows a decent signal for DC north. 

[Ji]

3 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Long range right now looks dry but chilly. 

hopefully this gives us something

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

hopefully this gives us something

Do you always have to be so negative?

[Eskimo Joe]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Do you always have to be so negative?

No that's just an add on. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

You’re joking but it’s true. Clipper type systems are likely going to trend north with time. So far north that AI and gfs already have it too far north 

I just did an h5 analysis of that Euro run and the intricate interplay between multiple pieces of energy(vorticity) that allows the one that induces 'our' storm to sharpen and dig that far southward and it is pretty insane how it worked out. What would really help get a NS vort to track underneath is a sharper/more amped PNA ridge, but its being kept a bit 'flat' by the positively tilted WPO ridge and downstream trough.

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No that's just an add on. 

Actually,it was intended to be a bit facetious, but accurate, joke. He actually pointed out good numbers on the SOI showing the Niña fading, but the SOI numbers themselves were "negative."

[WxUSAF]

Happy hour for @Bob Chill for Monday-Tuesday

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Happy hour for @Bob Chill for Monday-Tuesday

Maybe I’m just feeling a little saucy since we did well today but part of me really wants to try and will this one back. Need to try and decipher the h500 to see what it would take but it can’t be impossible 

thanks @CAPE

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Happy hour for @Bob Chill for Monday-Tuesday

This could easily trend north- probably too far north lol.

Pretty nice h5 look in general. That vorticity lobe over the Canadian Maritimes is a bit problematic.

[WxUSAF]

Yeah I don't know if we can get that north enough for us.  That's a big ol' shredder to our north.  

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah I don't know if we can get that north enough for us.  That's a big ol' shredder to our north.  

I know a guy in Canada who can handle the energy in the maritimes. Gonna make some calls and we’ll check in again at 00z.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Northern crew avert your eyes. Would be amazing to be back to tracking again. Was briefly mourning having nothing to look at. 

The 13th is Wreaths Across America. Would be an amazing event in the snow.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah I don't know if we can get that north enough for us.  That's a big ol' shredder to our north.  

Yeah this is only a few days out. That said some minor tweaks could get our region in on the northern edge(again). Probably gotta root for more amplification earlier.