December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z GFS is basically the same as 18z GFS but slightly warmer and less precip

 Umm.  I must be seeing something else cause I didn't  see the same thing

 

 Unless I'm looking at it wrong lol

[Ji]

CMC is a carbon copy of Tuesday 

We’ve become the Carolinas.

[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

CMC is a carbon copy of Tuesday 

 Well it's a week away and it's the cmc lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO for Tuesday.

Other thread 

[bncho]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO for Tuesday.

its almost a perfect balance. it was a touch more amped but the extra boost in precipitation really gave those snow bands a boost, helping the metros overcome the marginal temps for a longer time.

[mitchnick]

Euro looks to be getting ready for next weekend too.

[mitchnick]

Not this run. Lol

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro looks to be getting ready for next weekend too.

I do not know with the way the Highs are sitting. Looks like maybe a little ice could be possible, but that is a poor look

[WxUSAF]

 

[mitchnick]

6z brings it back similar to Tuesday but a few degrees colder.

[frd]

[NorthArlington101]

EPS median looks nice end of week. Love having two events to track in the MR

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS median looks nice end of week. Love having two events to track in the MR

Looks like I need to re-up my WxBell subscription today.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS median looks nice end of week. Love having two events to track in the MR

i just realized that was median and not mean. LFG!

[frd]

Here is the ext 

 

[clskinsfan]

55 minutes ago, frd said:

Mjo stuck in phase 8 is tasty.

[NorthArlington101]

15 minutes ago, frd said:

Here is the ext 

 

At some point my weenie brain made a mental note that Phase 8 is secretly all that matters. I’m sure that’s wrong, but I hope some part of that is right 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Mjo stuck in phase 8 is tasty.

Yes get stuck in Phase 7, 8, 1 for a few weeks.

[Terpeast]

And the SPV will weaken again in mid late dec - might be helpful for early mid Jan too

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And the SPV will weaken again in mid late dec - might be helpful for early mid Jan too

you said that you would release another winter outlook in november if your idea about winter changed. maybe it's time?

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And the SPV will weaken again in mid late dec - might be helpful for early mid Jan too

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

you said that you would release another winter outlook in november if your idea about winter changed. maybe it's time?

Overall idea hasn’t changed much, but we may get “luckier” with snowfall amounts. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

And the SPV will weaken again in mid late dec - might be helpful for early mid Jan too

I see that in the modeling. Interesting I read the event was more of a reflective manner,  and did not couple the SPV and the TPV.

Of note is the current AO which despite Canada, and basically a large portion of North America cold, the AO has not dropped. 

Wonder if that changes going forward. I looked a couple days ago and believe long range modeling has the AO going negative.   

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

11 hours ago, Ji said:

We’ve become the Carolinas.

That’s way more snow than the Carolinas get these days.

[frd]

Will not show the whacky GFS

 

 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Will not show the whacky GFS

 

 

Interesting it shows an AK vortex but still ridging over the west coast. Probably because it is pos tilted. Orientation matters.

[frd]

Close up on the 10 th.

Wonder, and hoping, we get a better + PNA spike as we get closer to this time period. 

[NorthArlington101]

12z GFS is close to something better on the 6th but I’d still take an easy 0.5-1”

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z GFS is close to something better on the 6th but I’d still take an easy 0.5-1”

CMC looks decent 

[Ji]

30 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

CMC looks decent 

always a low in the great lakes. Its like a permeants feature now