December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Jersey Andrew]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12/6 2-4"+ on Gfs

Pretty please that’s my birthday

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

It's the 50th anniversary of "Jaws" this year...hey, that's gotta be worth something!

[mitchnick]

18z Gefs is a bit better on snowfall fwiw than 12z.

[Weather Will]

Yes indeed! (WB 18Z GEFS is better!) (last picture comparison to 12Zz)

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs is a bit better on snowfall fwiw than 12z.

[Eskimo Joe]

^that would give everyone north and west of I-95 close to December climo snowfall

[NorthArlington101]

AI Euro now 2-3” area wide… map shortly 

[bncho]

18z euro a hair too far north.

[simbasad2]

The "Worlds Most Consistent Model" with a 200 mile jump to the NW. Anyway I love the changes I'm seeing on the 18z suite so far, certainly feeling more optimistic about next week's threat compared to yesterday.

[winter_warlock]

Euro AIFS

 

[winter_warlock]

9 minutes ago, simbasad2 said:

The "Worlds Most Consistent Model" with a 200 mile jump to the NW. Anyway I love the changes I'm seeing on the 18z suite so far, certainly feeling more optimistic about next week's threat compared to yesterday.

 Not bad at all considers is 6 days out

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Yall drew me in for this shit.  It better deliver. 

Well Randy u might wanna cross ur fingers bro just in case..... And a prayer wouldn't hurt lol 

[CAPE]

Just an op run but 18z GFS is a much better H5 look for frozen on the 6th for the corridor and points east for early Dec.

At the surface- broad area of HP to the north, instead of a High sliding off the NE coast for the Dec 2-3 storm. All subject to change ofc.

[poolz1]

18z Euro would probably be a decent hit west of the fall line.  Nice SLP track, just need a better HP position for everyone to win.  Although it is stronger and and in a better spot than 12z.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

    What difference 12 hours makes   rainy  this run

CAB

The good snows portrayed last night in 10 of 100 panels still has a 1 in 10 chance and the models  are now cycling through the other 9 out of 10 

 

[Ji]

28 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

CAB

The good snows portrayed last night in 10 of 100 panels still has a 1 in 10 chance and the models  are now cycling through the other 9 out of 10 

 

welcome to your 25th year on the message board and your still spouting the same stuff about models lol. You are probably 80 by now so i am going to give you a pass!

[winter_warlock]

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

welcome to your 25th year on the message board and your still spouting the same stuff about models lol. You are probably 80 by now so i am going to give you a pass!

One thing I have learned the last 15 years  being with AmericanWx.....   Ji doesn't sugar coat anything!! 

[Interstate]

Yeah and getting +10 before Dec 20 is almost impossible. 

[Weather Will]

WB latest weeklies has Christmas to NY cold.

[winter_warlock]

FWIW..... JMA. Hour 144 and 168

[winter_warlock]

00z ICON

 

 

[TSSN+]

For s.a.g before gfs

 

 

[mitchnick]

At 105hrs on 0z, Gfs trough a touch weaker than 18z fwiw.

[mitchnick]

111hrs it's now a touch stronger than 18z. Damn see-saw ride.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

At 105hrs on 0z, Gfs trough a touch weaker than 18z fwiw.

I think this is gonna be a continuation of the bad 18z trend - norther

[TSSN+]

Ton of qpf incoming at 130. Will to be cold enough is the question. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ton of qpf incoming at 130. Will to be cold enough is the question. 

It’s rain in all of WVA - no shot. Might work for verrry northern MD and PA 

[winter_warlock]

Gfs hr 126

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s rain in all of WVA - no shot. Might work for verrry northern MD and PA 

We got tomorrow, I hope

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s rain in all of WVA - no shot 

I think it's a bit slower too which let's the High move offshore  and we get the southerly flow.

[stormtracker]

just too amp'd