December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[MJOatleast7]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I teach acquired brain injury clients on regaining basic life skills so we are cut from the same cloth. Nah we always have the memories thrown in conversation usually waiting for the next model run. Thank you for what you do both my parents died with dementia.  Toughest times of my life. At any rate modeling isn't terrible at all smoothed out. 

  Is that the AI (first time seen on Tropical Tidbits) doing the smoothing on  GFS?

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Part of me is wondering if there is some scaling back in that regard due to climo. I agree that we certainly may end up below average as a whole, but unless we get some persistent HP to our north...we are going to be caked into a southwesterly surface flow. But the boundary is going to be very close by. It really can go either way 

Actually its flow out of Eastern Canada 

[Kitz Craver]

32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Same shit last week…12z sucks, 6z good.  Laughable. 

I’m not sure it’s quite that linear 

[Ginx snewx]

Wind!

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

 

That was me citing the GFS, not Euro. Just speaks to how much models diverge on this razor's edge setup. 

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One little change here or there is like a 30F difference for us lol. 

An all or nothing type setup. I don't like it at all, but again I'd prefer being on the bleeding edge than guaranteed to be torching in Topeka. 

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully some wind damage, nothing else exciting to track

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess 2015 was a bit more CJey than 1996...I had a foot more in the latter...probably also because March turned SOP in 2015...1996 did not.

Is there a map anywhere with totals from 96? I think I had more than 2015 too.

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I asked @OceanStWx about that and supposedly it had better results over GFS op (early testing anyways) but didn’t perform as well in anomalous events which one would expect when a model is training on past events. 
 

The other thing he said is that each vertical level is trained independently, so it’s possible the 500mb pattern may not match what you’d think to see for MSLP. 

Speaking of him, Where has Chris been?

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully some wind damage, nothing else exciting to track

Those gust maps from the 3k/HRRR on COD are usually a little more conservative than some of those gust products and they’re both pretty big down in SNE tomorrow. A lot of 60kt+.

[weatherwiz]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Actually its flow out of Eastern Canada 

It certainly may be. It all depends on really what side of everything we're on. We could be southwesterly or northeasterly. Heck, probably even get a mixture of both.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Speaking of him, Where has Chris been?

He’s been gone since very early in govt shutdown . Took offense to a few posts . I was wondering who else would notice 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Those gust maps from the 3k/HRRR on COD are usually a little more conservative than some of those gust products and they’re both pretty big down in SNE tomorrow. A lot of 60kt+.

Yeah those typically are more conservative. Eye popping to see the gusts on those .60-70+. Hoping ….

[dryslot]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s been gone since very early in govt shutdown . Took offense to a few posts . I was wondering who se would notice 

I noticed quit a while ago but was reminded when Scott mentioned it so thought i would ask.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Those gust maps from the 3k/HRRR on COD are usually a little more conservative than some of those gust products and they’re both pretty big down in SNE tomorrow. A lot of 60kt+.

That LLJ does hang back through early afternoon.

Unlike that setup some weeks back where models trended east with the LLJ inside of 48 hours...this one has not

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dryslot said:

I noticed quit a while ago but was reminded when Scott mentioned it so thought i would ask.

I remember the posts and poster he got upset about lol. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

That LLJ does hang back through early afternoon.

Unlike that setup some weeks back where models trended east with the LLJ inside of 48 hours...this one has not

The LLJ also backed west and slowed down from earlier in the week which is helping 

[CoastalWx]

He’s around. But in his defense, the NWS is really getting hosed. It’s a tough situation for all of them and I’ll just leave it at that. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The LLJ also backed west and slowed down from earlier in the week which is helping 

yup for sure. I am definitely a bit more intrigued than I was 24 hours ago. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

The NWS map looks underdone to me for eastern/central LI and eastern Connecticut. I would expect widespread gusts of 55+ mph and scattered 65-70 mph gusts.  HREF *mean* has 70 mph hugging the South Shore of Suffolk County and the Twin Forks, and HRRR is similar.   We often overperform in southerly windstorms in the winter ahead of cold fronts.


 

 

[weatherwiz]

Still have to watch though because if its just a non stop rain with no break between the initial area and line ahead of the front, gusts will be greatly diminished. It looks like the window for gusts 50-60+ is going to be relatively small and might end up being something more localized versus widespread. 

If there is a break between the initial area and incoming line, it will absolutely rip for a few hours

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Still have to watch though because if its just a non stop rain with no break between the initial area and line ahead of the front, gusts will be greatly diminished. It looks like the window for gusts 50-60+ is going to be relatively small and might end up being something more localized versus widespread. 

If there is a break between the initial area and incoming line, it will absolutely rip for a few hours

You can see the temps bounce up and down on the hrrr. Almost looks like a batch of heavy rain late morning ahead of LLJ core and then more scattered after until fropa. Any breaks in between and sky brightness will help boost temps a tick or two. Hrrr is like 61 here lol. 

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s around. But in his defense, the NWS is really getting hosed. It’s a tough situation for all of them and I’ll just leave it at that. 

Yeah, I see him on the AFD's for up here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s around. But in his defense, the NWS is really getting hosed. It’s a tough situation for all of them and I’ll just leave it at that. 

Yup.  going backwards

[CoastalWx]

BOX upgraded srn RI and along cstl MA to HWW. But imho, that logic should include the rest of SE MA 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm sensing a recurring theme there where the AI interpretations are always slightly to moderately "better" ( referring to winter enthusiast lensing - ) than whatever the operational non-AI tenor of that run cycle is.  

I'd like to know how these Artificial Intelligentsia model variations are actually constructed - how/what is/are processing.  It seems to me there might be some climate tainting the AI ... like part of what it does ( just pure speculation here - ) is factor in all inputs that might be factored, like at all ..., and if climate from 1980 is involved in that, it would be bad. 

The other thing is I don't mean to impugn the AI modeling technology.  It's fledgling and probably primitive - obviously - for having just recently been invented.  10 years from now, who knows.   It's a journey that's probably got to be made full of the usual peregrinations of successes and failures along the way... all that.   

How have the AI models done up to this point in time, this year?   I don't really count last year - I don't think.  It was just too primitive and sparsely existing.  But now there appears to be an actual competitive market getting going so it should be time to compare verification and scoring 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can see the temps bounce up and down on the hrrr. Almost looks like a batch of heavy rain late morning ahead of LLJ core and then more scattered after until fropa. Any breaks in between and sky brightness will help boost temps a tick or two. Hrrr is like 61 here lol. 

Going to be an interesting day for sure. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to be an interesting day for sure. 

18z Nam shows just that. Almost like a WF moving in with kink in isobars at 15z.

[weathergoat]

Going back to the topic of NWS cutbacks, is that the reason NWS Taunton doesn't have the links to Climate/Hurricanes/River etc anymore at the bottom of the forecast pages? Ridiculous.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z Nam shows just that. Almost like a WF moving in with kink in isobars at 15z.

She’s a very kinky girl?

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z Nam shows just that. Almost like a WF moving in with kink in isobars at 15z.

Was just going to post on that. Some of the soundings are pretty impressive 

I'm also curious about the potential for some squalls to fire up later in the afternoon.