December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

Ai ensembles looked half decent. Lots of HP to our north for events. 
 

We just have to hope for half ass shortwaves in the flow because if one is strong enough we’re in shorts. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Oh boy...pope is chiming in; this should be about as refreshing as morning breath.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, it's not hopeless....which in and of itself is all you can ask for.

I’ve been in the snow to ice camp . Possibly the 23rd.. but more likely Xmas Day 

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IDK about the rest of you guys, but in a rudimentary sense...give me volatility, over the single digits on NW flow.

Absolutely. Models insist on temps being cold all the way up. Go Skynet!

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve been in the snow to ice camp . Possibly the 23rd.. but more likely Xmas Day 

Hopefully the grid is taken down Christmas morning and kids are left with no power for a week. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully the grid is taken down Christmas morning and kids are left with no power for a week. 

I think most would root for and welcome that scenario 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully the grid is taken down Christmas morning and kids are left with no power for a week. 

Spoken from the guy that doesn't have 4 under the age of 7

[jbenedet]

Euro with 978 mb in southern Ottawa.

61 is record high for the date here. They will be under threat regionally 

 

Should be taking notes that all of our big storms have been cutters.

 

From someone who only wants big snowstorms, and seasonal cold. This is pattern is trash.

 

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

18 years ago today, the best SWFE that god ever created was upon us.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 

Yea, that was a few days before my favorite one on 12/16/07.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Euro with 978 mb in southern Ottawa.

61 is record high for the date here. They will be under threat regionally 

 

Should be taking notes that all of our big storms have been cutters.

 

From someone who only wants big snowstorms, and seasonal cold. This is pattern is trash.

 

It does suck, I agree. But it could be worse and we have certainly seen worse this time of year.. I wouldn't be surprised if most of us had an inch or two on the ground for xmas. That said, this is not the pattern for a major snow...completely agree.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that was a few days before my favorite one on 12/16/07.

 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It does suck, I agree. But it could be worse and we have certainly seen worse this time of year.. I wouldn't be surprised if most of us had an inch or two on the ground for xmas. That said, this is not the pattern for a major snow...completely agree.

Prolific overunning can be a major snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Prolific overunning can be a major snow.

Exceedingly rare.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Prolific overunning can be a major snow.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 Thanks. That’s based on my 1st list, which is of those Decembers that had 1+ days dipping lower than -3.48. But those Decembers didn’t necessarily have a solid -WPO dominating through the entire month. One of those Decembers, 1996, actually averaged a +WPO overall. Also, 1983 and 1977 didn’t average a negative enough WPO. And there were a bunch of Decs left out of that 1st list that had a very -WPO with it dominating throughout but that didn’t have at least one day dip below -3.48 like 2013, 2010, 2009, 1995, 1980, 1961, and 1956.

 OTOH, the 2nd list included some that weren’t -ENSO through the winter or at all like 2009, 1989, 1980, and 1956. In addition, 2005 and 1995 had a moderate or strong +PNA in Dec.

 So, what are we left with for the best analogs based on solid -WPO throughout Dec, -ENSO through the winter, and a moderate to strong -PNA in Dec? 2013, 2010, and 1961. Of these three, the PNA flipped to positive in Jan in 2014 and 2011 and to neutral in Jan of 1962.

  So, the closest -ENSO/Dec -WPO/Dec -PNA analogs are 2013, 2010, and 1961.

Not a bad list there on the bottom-

[ariof]

I can’t remember who was asking but the report from Boston is that the Charles basin is pretty much fully frozen over. Looks thin and will probably not last through the grinch on Friday. But still rare for December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ariof said:

I can’t remember who was asking but the report from Boston is that the Charles basin is pretty much fully frozen over. Looks thin and will probably not last through the grinch on Friday. But still rare for December.

I was just noticing small bodies of water frozen over around Boston on the drive in this AM.

[weatherwiz]

I would love to pull off one major storm before my next semester starts so I can at least enjoy it alot more. Keep em ripping after that but will be harder to enjoy/dig deep into the forecasting pocket for. I am cautiously optimistic for early January...the pattern may not be entirely supportive for a biggie but it could be active. We also may introduce some southern stream involvement...I don't see the southern stream being active, but if the southern stream can shoot some energy our way and phase up with a northern piece...there's our biggie potential 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, ariof said:

I can’t remember who was asking but the report from Boston is that the Charles basin is pretty much fully frozen over. Looks thin and will probably not last through the grinch on Friday. But still rare for December.

I don’t know if I’d call Fridays Storm a grinch…at 6 days away from Xmas, a little to far away from Xmas imo. But just my opinion. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t know if I’d call Fridays Storm a grinch…at 6 days away from Xmas, a little to far away from Xmas imo. But just my opinion. 

I think it is...it wipes everyone out.

[Snowcrazed71]

48 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Euro with 978 mb in southern Ottawa.

61 is record high for the date here. They will be under threat regionally 

 

Should be taking notes that all of our big storms have been cutters.

 

From someone who only wants big snowstorms, and seasonal cold. This is pattern is trash.

 

So, you may be correct thus far. But just because it's not been snowmageddon for the first half of December does not make the pattern trash. Winter officially starts next week. Your take on things are always shyte. 

Let's talk about it in March when winter is coming to a close and see where we're at then.

[moneypitmike]

Caught this sighting this morning.  Better winter indicator than squirrels.

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exceedingly rare.

Hmm not really 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it is...it wipes everyone out.

Definitely a grinch within a week of Christmas.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it is...it wipes everyone out.

We’ll in SNE for sure…NNE will be fine. but being 6 days away from the holiday, and if we can grab(it’s tenuous but not zero) a little something on 12/24 or 12/25, is it a true grinch?   Maybe a hybrid grinch? 

[Ginx snewx]

51 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Euro with 978 mb in southern Ottawa.

61 is record high for the date here. They will be under threat regionally 

 

Should be taking notes that all of our big storms have been cutters.

 

From someone who only wants big snowstorms, and seasonal cold. This is pattern is trash.

 

53 will be your high. Lock it up

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Definitely a grinch within a week of Christmas.

qualifies here, for sure 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Definitely a grinch within a week of Christmas.

I’m shocked that you feel that way…would have never thought that coming from you.    
 

Your beloved op runs looked decent…where’s your comments on them this morning? I guess they didn’t look bad enough this morning for some real negativity huh.  

[Ginx snewx]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Damn Kev lay of the IPAs

https://youtu.be/czmjOvR6O5E?si=Ei9YCn4RNqI8vcLQ