December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[ORH_wxman]

EPS QPF 50-75 miles would be big for a lot of the population  

[Greg]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would feel hopeful for CT, RI and se MA, but I don't see how this ends up anything appreciable up here, at this point...then we can get back to our regularly scheduled program of me being 3 miles too far to the south.

I feel ya! I remember when it actually snowed in December, Boston area included. Now for whatever meteorological reason the last several years has been concerning overall. My worry right at this point in time is pretty much close to a patricial shutout of December not the entire winter of course. The reason why I said a partial shutout for Dec. is because we did get a little snow so far for the month, but the rest is looking a little iffy ATT. 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS QPF 50-75 miles would be big for a lot of the population  

That would be about .15-.20 inches of qpf here..if it’s fluffy there’s my 2”

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course, it was way too far south for last week, and it ended up being rain, but it will nail this one being too far to the south. Can't make it up. Past decade....if it snows for SNE, it's wrong, if it doesn't, it's right.

I have been saying for years now, especially down here....doesn't matter what model it is, in the mid range, take the least snowiest model and it will be correct....works almost every single time, its laughable at this point. 

[Damage In Tolland]

56 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Are there specific years in CT where December was wire to wire snowy?

And NJ till I moved up here when I was 7

[Damage In Tolland]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’re in a good spot for this one I think. Prob like a 2” floor but with some decent upside/ceiling. 

Most of us are.. at least pike south and probably north 

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, Greg said:

I feel ya! I remember when it actually snowed in December, Boston area included. Now for whatever meteorological reason the last several years has been concerning overall. My worry right at this point in time is pretty much close to a patricial shutout of December not the entire winter of course. The reason why I said a partial shutout for Dec. is because we did get a little snow so far for the month, but the rest is looking a little iffy ATT. 

I remember many winters when I was a kid in the 60s and 70S that had snow by Christmas, also I remember a lot didn't. It's less than 50-50 in Southern New England.

[CT Rain]

Even the Euro which is meh has us saturated from 550mb to 850mb all between -10c and -20c. Could be some big time fluff somewhere with this thing. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I see we have already erased 2020 from your memory. 

Never will happen.  RA+ and 50s ate 5" snow in a flash, would've melted 15" if we'd had that much.  Greatest positive departure for any day here, 1° more than 3/22/12.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Even the Euro which is meh has us saturated from 550mb to 850mb all between -10c and -20c. Could be some big time fluff somewhere with this thing. 

There’s a few here that are focused on qpf amounts. This thing is a big fluff bomb . 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Even the Euro which is meh has us saturated from 550mb to 850mb all between -10c and -20c. Could be some big time fluff somewhere with this thing. 

Most of the soundings on other guidance has a really deep saturated snow growth layer too. This one has good ratio potential if we can just get that lift in here.  

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I have been saying for years now, especially down here....doesn't matter what model it is, in the mid range, take the least snowiest model and it will be correct....works almost every single time, its laughable at this point. 

This is the 80’s to a frieken T!  Something would always go wrong, and sabotage a good system, and now we are right back to it again. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of the soundings on other guidance has a really deep saturated snow growth layer too. This one has good ratio potential if we can just get that lift in here.  

I’ll take .25” of liquid, fluff it up and give me 4”…that’d be fun. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I remember many winters when I was a kid in the 60s and 70S that had snow by Christmas, also I remember a lot didn't. It's less than 50-50 in Southern New England.

You really need to be outside of 495 and north of I-84 to get higher than 50/50 chances for White Christmas climatologically in SNE. ORH was around 60-65%. 
 

Obviously recent years have been bad. I think last year in 2024 is the only White Xmas in the 2020s. For ORH, then you have: 2019, 2017, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2002, 2000.
 

You could maybe count 2020 on a technicality (the snow wasn’t 100% wiped out by 12z which is the measurement time but certainly by 18z it was) 

So we’re sitting at about 50% since 2000. 

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 fluff it up and give me 4”…that’d be fun. 

Please keep the bedroom talk between you and wifey private, thanks wolfman 

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You really need to be outside of 495 and north of I-84 to get higher than 50/50 chances for White Christmas climatologically in SNE. ORH was around 60-65%. 
 

Obviously recent years have been bad. I think last year in 2024 is the only White Xmas in the 2020s. For ORH, then you have: 2019, 2017, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2002, 2000.
 

You could maybe count 2020 on a technicality (the snow wasn’t 100% wiped out by 12z which is the measurement time but certainly by 18z it was) 

So we’re sitting at about 50% since 2000. 

Yep since 1975 25 out of 50 years had 0 snow cover here

[weatherwiz]

there is almost a better shot at getting severe weather on May 31 than there is a white Christmas 

[Ginx snewx]

Dec snows last 100 plus years in Hartford  50/50 shot of big snows. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Dec snows last 100 plus years in Hartford  50/50 shot of big snows. 

that data gap is so stupid. It pisses me off everytime I look at snowfall data.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

that data gap is so stupid. It pisses me off everytime I look at snowfall data.

Will has it. Dec is actually a very prolific month and up there on highest monthly average. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will has it

I have the gaps in the data in a notebook that Will posted way back in the day and some stuff from Ryan too for BDL. It just sucks you check the records online and you either have no data or incorrect. Just think of the discrepancies it elicits. Like if you go check BDL on threadex for 1995-1996...it only has BDL like 106" or something versus 115.2" or 116.2" (forgot what it is).  

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will has it. Dec is actually a very prolific month and up there on highest monthly average. 

December can have some biggies but that also shows that March used to be just as snowy, if not snowier than December. I'm sure the BDL average for March the past 10-15 years has went down

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have the gaps in the data in a notebook that Will posted way back in the day and some stuff from Ryan too for BDL. It just sucks you check the records online and you either have no data or incorrect. Just think of the discrepancies it elicits. Like if you go check BDL on threadex for 1995-1996...it only has BDL like 106" or something versus 115.2" or 116.2" (forgot what it is).  

Climate data on snowfall is absolutely horrible.  The real reliable sites are COOPs like Jeff in Staffordville CT and Stacey in North Foster RI, also Revere Mass and Blue Hill

[CT Rain]

Posted this discussion after the 12z runs in case anyone is interested. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ps6sgVtw0nA

 

[KTBFFH1905]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Are there specific years in CT where December was wire to wire snowy?

Not that I can recall. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

December can have some biggies but that also shows that March used to be just as snowy, if not snowier than December. I'm sure the BDL average for March the past 10-15 years has went down

No actually steady.  Huge Marchs skew the data like the 40s in 1956 and 1993 but as a whole negligible 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No actually steady.  Huge Marchs skew the data like the 40s in 1956 and 1993 but as a whole negligible 

March definitely has a higher standard deviation of snowfall than December. You can get some absolute monster totals in March but usually less likely to get those in December. (ORH is similar) 

They average out close but March a little snowier and also more likely to get a big dog in March. December probably has more “near average” months than March does. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I hope southern peeps can at least get inch or two.  This seems like a coating for the Rt 2 folks.

[ineedsnow]

18z HRRR way looks better 

[WinterWolf]

So with all that said…December is as we all thought, sometimes they suck for snow, sometimes they are good.  Kevin’s ideas on December are from a skewed view.