December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[MJO812]

JB agrees with Roundy about a brief break in the cold.

[dendrite]

So the 00z euro was weaker (a little more open) with the SPV and further south with it than other runs. To my eyes, it tries to squash the shortwave and it ends up more of an elongated, sheared mess as it reaches the northeast. The better runs have kept the SPV a hair further north with a few closed contours and that shortwave dives under more intact, they do a little fuji, and then we get the good punch of dPVA curling near SNE as the SPV merges in behind it. As Ray said, this is all happening at high speed.

But there’s a lot going on in the arctic with these pieces over the next 24hrs before they start to separate themselves and become more clean cut. People get pissed at the models, but it doesn’t take much of a change upstream 96hrs out to throw things out of whack.

[dendrite]

6z GFS brings the 591dm ridge back.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dendrite said:

6z GFS brings the 591dm ridge back.

Should I install?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Rain train on the GFS OP

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It just looks cartoon resolved with that one particular metric is all.  

It's not one or the other, tho.  It can be developed more and mashed S of CT with flurries on the Cape too. 

Yea, if the nascent mid level lows are far enough south, sure....just going by the position on those ensemble products neat the BM. I would have to assume the mid level lows would be far enough north to impact most of the area.

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Rain train on the GFS OP

It literally can go either way, 50/50 as far as Christmas and a warm up or staying chilly. 

I think staying on focus for the possible snow event this Sunday makes more sense. We can't even figure out what's going to happen in 4 days let alone 2 weeks

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It literally can go either way, 50/50 as far as Christmas and a warm up or staying chilly. .

 

I think it's pretty clear the pattern is going to break.

[dendrite]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

It literally can go either way, 50/50 as far as Christmas and a warm up or staying chilly. .

 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It literally can go either way, 50/50 as far as Christmas and a warm up or staying chilly. 

I think staying on focus for the possible snow event this Sunday makes more sense. We can't even figure out what's going to happen in 4 days let alone 2 weeks

 

Only question is how warm and do we go 70s or not

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Only question is how warm and do we go 70s or not

If the ground is bare, then i'll take 60+

[dendrite]

Just spitballing here, but even if that SE ridge starts cycling like JB, that temp gradient may be close by and we could pull off some overrunning events…obviously CAD spots would be favored for more glop.

So even though I like to poke the embers with d16 op maps of +20C 850s it doesn’t mean I’m calling for it and that we can’t get some wintry weather. Maybe a reshuffling of the deck would work in everyone’s favor.

[dendrite]

This would be lol though

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just spitballing here, but even if that SE ridge starts cycling like JB, that temp gradient may be close by and we could pull off some overrunning events…obviously CAD spots would be favored for more glop.

So even though I like to poke the embers with d16 op maps of +20C 850s it doesn’t mean I’m calling for it and that we can’t get some wintry weather. Maybe a reshuffling of the deck would work in everyone’s favor.

I said that to some of the guys in a group text last night....the second half of the month will be better for snow, even though it will be milder.

[Snowcrazed71]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's pretty clear the pattern is going to break.

Not saying it's going to break or it's not going to break. Even if it does, I don't think it's going to be a long-term, warm pattern for the rest of the winter. My point is, no reason to break down. 

By the way, I really do appreciate reading your breakdown of what you expect for this winter. Nothing ever goes exactly as we plan, but I believe the general consensus of what will happen this winter will fall well into what you had explained in your winter Outlook. Thank you for that

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said that to some of the guys in a group text last night....the second half of the month will be better for snow, even though it will be milder.

Yup, let’s shake the beotch up some. I’m fine with a few milder days, and then see where we stand. Be nice to get the next system though…hope that can work out for us/the area.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Not saying it's going to break or it's not going to break. Even if it does, I don't think it's going to be a long-term, warm pattern for the rest of the winter. My point is, no reason to break down. 

By the way, I really do appreciate reading your breakdown of what you expect for this winter. Nothing ever goes exactly as we plan, but I believe the general consensus of what will happen this winter will fall well into what you had explained in your winter Outlook. Thank you for that

Nope, and that's how we learn...in that respect, AI and actual intelligence are alike.

Thank you.

[dendrite]

21.0° overcast

Had 0.1” overnight…racking up those tenths

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, if the nascent mid level lows are far enough south, sure....just going by the position on those ensemble products neat the BM. I would have to assume the mid level lows would be far enough north to impact most of the area.

right. 

you know, tracking that s/w's spacing back in the flow ..it's not even yet over the American owned sounding domain.  I'm sure we're not exactly purchasing sounding data from Russia heh ...if they are even plumbing the skies over Siberia at all in the first place. 

Anyway, it's all based on assimilation. Although satellite sounding.  Still, it's almost like the models assume something should be there in the flow in that spatial-temporal/geometric region, then propagating the assumption along ...at difficult to manage, ludicrous speed. Perhaps if there was better physically realized, direct sampling the handling might be more stable.  

I mean I suspect something like this is going on.  Look at the Euro's last 4 cycles ... left to right, the most recent to 24 hours ago ( 6 hours apart).  On off on off... That's been rather predictable just within that small range.  Something perhaps added than missing every other run

 

[Layman]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

21.0° overcast

Had 0.1” overnight…racking up those tenths

[Typhoon Tip]

If this suddenly arrives in the grids and has more physical forcing then those on-panels (above) might get 10 or 20% more meaningful to the region ( S-E).  If less, the flatter versions there prevail. 

 

[weatherwiz]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This would be lol though

I'm ready for May. Time to fire up the thread

[weatherwiz]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just spitballing here, but even if that SE ridge starts cycling like JB, that temp gradient may be close by and we could pull off some overrunning events…obviously CAD spots would be favored for more glop.

So even though I like to poke the embers with d16 op maps of +20C 850s it doesn’t mean I’m calling for it and that we can’t get some wintry weather. Maybe a reshuffling of the deck would work in everyone’s favor.

Yup...definitely something to consider. Could see 564 heights at 500 and +10C at 850 but could easily be wedged at the sfc 

[metagraphica]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This would be lol though

Let's DEW it!

[weatherwiz]

Might see a Christmas Day severe weather outbreak in the Mississippi/Ohio Valley if this keeps up 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Might see a Christmas Day severe weather outbreak in the Mississippi/Ohio Valley if this keeps up 

It’ll verify here as variably cloudy and 38°

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dendrite said:

It’ll verify here as variably cloudy and 38°

along with scattered rain showers 

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL, the CFS from 00z is the best model of all for the 14th

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’ll verify here as variably cloudy and 38°

right... 74 in Central Park, and 68 in BTV, too

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Might see a Christmas Day severe weather outbreak in the Mississippi/Ohio Valley if this keeps up 

...and a Melt Outbreak for some people here lol