December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF with a pretty significant improvement with heights out west. went from nothing to something

[WxWatcher007]

26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Me too but I wouldn’t huddle at home for it.

That was just a one off post from me but it’s southern VA. If they’re beating climo in the first 1/3 of December it’s notable no matter the amount.

Anyway. I’m liking the weekend. Never wavered on that. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF with a pretty significant improvement with heights out west. went from nothing to something

And the warmup is gone on the euro

[dryslot]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI Euro is nice

Without even looking, It must show snow in the bronx.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah euro has it too. A little suppressed. Nothing crazy but prob advisory type stuff south of pike. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Without even looking, It must show snow in the bronx.

And SNE

[dryslot]

Just now, MJO812 said:

And SNE

Obviously.............

[ORH_wxman]

If you start trending that ridge taller, you could quickly turn that event into something a bit bigger. It would likely be a fast mover…but those cold thickness quick hitters can sometimes be very good. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

Obviously.............

Actually it’s not. I’ve seen him post something looks great and it’s scraping the south coast. 

[wxsniss]

vs. 6z, EC significantly improved western ridge, not sure energy will dig and tilt enough to deliver on this specific run, but 14th a definite contender

[weatherwiz]

The good news is the Euro has been pretty consistent with the wave moving from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes region in the Thursday-Friday timeframe (its wavered with timing) but its been dead consistent since Friday. This wave is important because, while it may not do anything for us, it likely sets the stage for the "potential" with that follow up wave for the weekend.

[ORH_wxman]

The preceding shortwave on the euro also gives like an inch of snow to CT/RI. Icon was more bullish on that first shortwave and other guidance basically puts it through meat grinder so it’s nothing or flurries. But can’t rule that one o it yet either…but the better focus definitely looks like 12/14

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually it’s not. I’ve seen him post something looks great and it’s scraping the south coast. 

I had to go look and it has 0.4-0.75" or so qpf on skynet in SNE out towards the cape but i'm talking the 15th.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The preceding shortwave on the euro also gives like an inch of snow to CT/RI. Icon was more bullish on that first shortwave and other guidance basically puts it through meat grinder so it’s nothing or flurries. But can’t rule that one o it yet either…but the better focus definitely looks like 12/14

I think the framework the follow up wave sets up is way more important than worrying about whatever the ridge in the West will do. This how the west ridging will unfold game the last few years has done absolutely nothing. We've countless times seen models trend well with that inside 96-120 hours...only for a total slap back in the other direction, even inside 72 hours. I am willing to bet by 12z guidance Wednesday, we see guidance scale back with that ridging. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I had to go look and it has 0.4-0.75" or so qpf on skynet.

A lot of these solutions are actually in a historically good spot for D6. The key is the trend…if we a slowly amp that ridge a little more, could be a solid event for a chunk of New England…esp southeastern 2/3rds which would include your area. 
 

What we don’t want is to see the trend in the ridge regress again. 

[weatherwiz]

I guess this is the feature to watch over the next day or two (Coming out of the Aleutians). How this evolves in the next 48 hours will likely tell us whether the ridge will amplify or not

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of these solutions are actually in a historically good spot for D6. The key is the trend…if we a slowly amp that ridge a little more, could be a solid event for a chunk of New England…esp southeastern 2/3rds which would include your area. 
 

What we don’t want is to see the trend in the ridge regress again. 

I really had not looked that far out as we have had a few events in the short term here and another one tomorrow night into weds.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I guess this is the feature to watch over the next day or two (Coming out of the Aleutians). How this evolves in the next 48 hours will likely tell us whether the ridge will amplify or not

That’s a good visual of how the arctic jet strengthens from Siberia to AK/N Canada as that WPO block strengthens. 
 

In addition, the stronger WPO block helps force that vortex down south of Aleutians which helps pump the PNA ridge…I think it was @Typhoon Tip who talks about their inverse correlation with a small lag. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a good visual of how the arctic jet strengthens from Siberia to AK/N Canada as that WPO block strengthens. 
 

In addition, the stronger WPO block helps force that vortex down south of Aleutians which helps pump the PNA ridge…I think it was @Typhoon Tip who talks about their inverse correlation with a small lag. 

I just hope its right but the models have struggled greatly within this domain.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just hope its right but the models have struggled greatly within this domain.

Can you get a similar view of the Euro? (if/when it is available)?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And the warmup is gone on the euro

Breathtakingly special times then.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Can you get a similar view of the Euro? (if/when it is available)?

Someone could probably do better from weatherbell or something but this is from weathermodels (don't see of anyway you can just select frames like you can on cod) and this goes way too quickly lol. 

Anyways, there are subtle differences between the Euro and GFS (GFS a bit more amplified with the ridge) but the subtle differences have a significant impact on the evolution. This is precisely why these patterns are extremely difficult to forecast in. The most subtle of differences can mean the difference between a 4-8" event and a C-2" lol.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

There won’t be two events. They always morph into one . I’d bet this turns into a Saturday night into Sunday morning deal .. splits the difference between models 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thank you Paul.  

[weatherwiz]

Our best chance for something bigger later this month is hoping for any PV lobes to phase in with the northern stream. Just picking a random time frame just to illustrate but the PV is forecast to become quite large which will benefit us in the since that every now and then we'll get pieces of PV lobes tossed our way. But I feel like overall we need to weaken the PV and that may help relax the flow a bit. But there is also extremely uncertainty with how the AO evolves the second half of this month 

[weatherwiz]

If this piece of PV energy that's closed off could even dig into the base of the trough just a tick earlier this would allow for LP to explode just south of Long Island. Might actually be some room to get the Cape a decent whack out of this

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The good news at least is that Cali and the entire SW region is dry. The winters of death troughs in the pac west just could be behind us now…

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The good news at least is that Cali and the entire SW region is dry. The winters of death troughs in the pac west just could be behind us now…

Given the background -PDO/Nina, we’ll almost certainly deal with west coast troughing again this winter…but I’d rather roll the dice with it in later January and February versus December. And hopefully it’s not digging into Baja…a lot more manageable when it’s a PAC NW trough. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Given the background -PDO/Nina, we’ll almost certainly deal with west coast troughing again this winter…but I’d rather roll the dice with it in later January and February versus December. And hopefully it’s not digging into Baja…a lot more manageable when it’s a PAC NW trough. 

I think this time last year and even the year before, we already started to see storms digging deep into California. Looking for any glimmer of hope possible.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Given the background -PDO/Nina, we’ll almost certainly deal with west coast troughing again this winter…but I’d rather roll the dice with it in later January and February versus December. And hopefully it’s not digging into Baja…a lot more manageable when it’s a PAC NW trough. 

Yea. We were buried with stubborn troughs into Cabo early and often past several shitty seasons.