December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[CentralNJSnowman]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This has been debunked by many meteorologists. 

Read my post.  Pretty sure it explains the confusion/contention

[WeatherGeek2025]

for now I'm going with the least snowy model until something changes... that's the trend. I've been let down far too long to be excited for Sunday!

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

for now I'm going with the least snowy model until something changes... that's the trend. I've been let down far too long to be excited for Sunday!

someone said wait til 48-72 hrs to jump on board-that makes sense too vs a week out

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, NittanyWx said:

Snow and Nina correlations are abysmal and you're not bound by prior analogs for it.

Over 90% success rate for 14 out of the last 15 La Ninas spanning 30 years.

[SACRUS]

 

37 / 29, Highs in the 40s, will make this the warmest day through next Wed.  Rain/ showers pushing through, cloudy once to mid morning.   Overall cold Dec 11 - 17th with the coldest 72 hours Sun - Tue highs sub freezing in places one or all 3 days.  Snow squall / showers overnight Sat/Sun possible with arctic front reinforcing cold.   Moderation to and above normal by the 18th into Christmas as ridging noses east.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 72 (1946)
NYC: 70 (1946)
LGA: 70 (1946)
JFK: 59 (2015)


Lows;

 

EWR: 8 (1968)
NYC: 3 (1876)
LGA: 9 (1968)
JFK: 9 (1968)


Historical:

 

1699 - A severe ice storm hit Boston, MA, causing much damage to orchards. (The Weather Channel)

1904: 7.0 inches of snow occurred in in Washington, DC and 10.0 inches in Baltimore, MD. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1919: Bend, Oregon: A new 24-hour snowfall record for the state is set when Bend records 28 inches. (Ref. WxDoctor)
Cheyenne, WY reported the last of five straight days of snow. On this date, they set a daily record with 9.3 inches and 18.6 inches over the five days.Record low temperatures were set from the Plains to the West Coast including: Glasgow, MT: -32 °F, Waterloo, IA: -29 °F (broke previous record by 14 degrees), Havre, MT: -28 °F, Williston, ND: -27 °F, Bismarck, ND: -26 °F, Norfolk, NE: -26 °F, Duluth, MN: -23 °F, Scottsbluff, NE: -22 °F, Rochester, MN: -21 °F, Lander, WY: -21 °F: Tied, Great Falls, MT: -20 °F--- While Gainesville, FL set a record high with 83 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1946 - The temperature at New York City soared to 70 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1946: High pressure along the southeast coast brought a south to southwesterly flow of unseasonably warm air to the east. Record high temperatures for the date included: Roanoke, VA: 73 °F, Newark, NJ: 72 °F, Harrisburg, PA: 71 °F, Baltimore, MD: 70 °F, Allentown, PA: 70 °F, New York (Central Park), NY: 70 °F, Lynchburg, VA: 69 °F-Tied, Atlantic City, NJ: 68 °F, Philadelphia, PA: 68 °F, Wilmington, DE: 67 °F, Hartford, CT: 67 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1949 - The barometric pressure at Las Vegas, NV, reached a record low reading of 29.17 inches (987.8 millibars). (The Weather Channel)

1963: A winter storm moved across Oklahoma through the 11th. Freezing rain and sleet glazed highways, along with snow depths reaching two inches on top of the ice. 100 traffic accidents occurred at Oklahoma City alone during the evening rush hour the next day, and more than 14 injuries were reported due to falls on the ice. Ice accumulations on telephone lines knocked out service to parts of northwest Oklahoma. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967: During the overnight hours, a tornado struck Ft. Walton Beach, FL and Ocean City in Okaloosa County destroying 35 homes and nine businesses. One person was killed and 40 people injured. 33 businesses and 290 homes were damaged. An hour later, a tornado touched down briefly at Tyndall Air Force Base and again across the Bay in Parker and Callaway. One fatality occurred at Tyndall AFB as did most of the severe damage with 34 injuries. 39 homes at Tyndall were destroyed. A few hours later, a tornado destroyed four farmhouses and several barns in the rural area between Blountstown and Altha, FL. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1971: A strong ridge across the Florida Straits brought unseasonably warm temperatures from the Great Lakes to the Southeast. Charleston, WV tied their record high for December with 80 °F. Other daily record highs for the date included: Orlando, FL: 85 °F, Montgomery, AL: 78 °F, Pensacola, FL: 78 °F, Huntington, WV: 76 °F, Bristol, TN: 76 °F, Nashville, TN: 74 °F, Beckley, WV: 73 °F, Knoxville, TN: 73 °F, Birmingham, AL: 72 °F-Tied, Columbus, OH: 72 °F, Elkins, WV: 72 °F, Lexington, KY: 72 °F, Paducah, KY: 72 °F, Louisville, KY: 71 °F, Oak Ridge, TN: 71 °F, Evansville, IN: 70 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1972: A deep upper level trough extending from the Rockies to the West Coast continued to bring brutally record cold. Yosemite, CA reported their earliest sub-zero temperature on record with -1 °F. Las Vegas, NV recorded a high temperature of 32 °F. This was the coldest high temperature ever recorded in December. (Ref. Wilson - Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1977: The eastern two-thirds of Iowa struggled with blizzards from the 8th ending on this date as 5 to 12 inches of snow fell. Locally heavier amounts fell over the northeast portion of the state. Bitterly cold temperatures of -10 degrees below zero combined with winds of 50 mph to produce wind chills of around -70 °F. Drifts piled up to 10 feet. The blizzard closed roads, stranded motorists and caused equipment to be brought in from western Iowa to help clear roads. The winds broke power lines shutting off heat and water for some residents. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - A cold front brought high winds to the eastern slopes of the Northern and Central Rockies. Winds gusted to 97 mph at Mines Peak CO. In Wyoming, up to a foot of snow blanketed the Teton Village Ski Resort, northwest of Jackson. Strong chinook winds in the Central High Plains Region, gusting to 61 mph at Scottsbluff NE, warmed temperatures to near 70 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Squalls produced heavy snow in the Lower Great Lakes Region. Totals in northeastern Ohio ranged up to 14 inches at Harpersfield, and totals in western New York State ranged up to 14 inches at Sodus. In the snowbelt of Upper Michigan, the Ontonogon area reported two feet of snow in two days. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Heavy snow fell across the northern and central mountains of Colorado, with 24 inches reported at Steamboat Springs. Six to twelve inches of snow fell in the Denver and Boulder area delaying plane flights and snarling traffic. Heavy snow also spread across the Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Winner SD received 11 inches of snow, and more than ten inches of snow was reported north of Sioux City IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989: Heavy snow fell across the northern and central mountains of Colorado, with 24 inches reported at Steamboat Springs. Six to twelve inches of snow fell in the Denver and Boulder area delaying plane flights and snarling traffic. Heavy snow also spread across the Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Winner, SD received 11 inches of snow, and more than ten inches of snow was reported north of Sioux City IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
 

1992 - A slow-moving Nor'easter storm batters the northeast U.S. coast killing 19 people.



1995: Intense lake effect snow squalls buried Buffalo, NY under 37.9 inches of snow in 24 hours, the city's greatest 24 hour snowfall and biggest snowstorm ever. Watertown, NY recorded 39 inches of snow in just 12 hours, and had 4 inches of snow an hour for 6 consecutive hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1998: Santa Ana winds started on the 9th and ended on this day across southern California. Gusts reached 101 mph at Modjeska Canyon, 93 mph at Fremont Canyon, 83 mph at Ontario and 52 mph at Santa Ana. Trees and power lines were downed, vehicles overturned, and property damage was done to property. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)



 

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[North and West]

With the bad winters happening consistently lately, I can't remember how many years exactly so far now many other years has a similar outcome occurred based on record keeping stats? If rarely much at all,  the big question that comes to mind is, will this be the new kind of winter we will be seeing from now on,  with a warmer world?? Seems to me that part history versus what happens storms wise has been falling short.  One example would be the forecasts for record breaking hurricane seasons the past 2 years falling a little short, with a couple monster storms... 
 
Or were simply stuck in a dam loop and can't seem to break it?

Don’t you think it’s more averages coming out of snowy 2000s and 2010s, and now less snowy 2020s? Cyclical + Warmer Background Temperatures?


.

[TheClimateChanger]

Blockbuster season out there:

 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, North and West said:

Don’t you think it’s more averages coming out of snowy 2000s and 2010s, and now less snowy 2020s? Cyclical + Warmer Background Temperatures?


.

In a warming climate we can get larger snowstorms which is what happened during 2010 to 2018. The main caveat was that we needed the dominant storm track to be colder to our southeast in order to realize the higher snowfall potential. With the northwest and warmer shift to the storm tracks since 2018-2019, we have resumed the long term downward trend in the snowfall setting all-time 7 year record lows for snowfall.
 

 

[forkyfork]

can't wait for the nam to tuck a low south of li

[NEG NAO]

Can't believe all the complaining here and some folks saying we will never have a return to several above average snowfall seasons in a row here - - once again look at  this history of NYC snowfall and try to explain it - we will return to above average snowfall seasons soon enough - its just that some of you younger folks have been spoiled by all of the  much above average seasons since 2000........without a long stretch of much below normal seasons 

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Blockbuster season out there:

 

Add Syracuse to that list.  What an great start for them. 

[SHELEG]

Something tells me this post will not age well.

[SHELEG]

Just now, SHELEG said:

Something tells me this post will not age well.

 

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In a warming climate we can get larger snowstorms which is what happened during 2010 to 2018. The main caveat was that we needed the dominant storm track to be colder to our southeast in order to realize the higher snowfall potential. With the northwest and warmer shift to the storm tracks since 2018-2019, we have resumed the long term downward trend in the snowfall setting all-time 7 year record lows for snowfall.
 

 

 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, SHELEG said:

Something tells me this post will not age well.

Exactly which part of the historic snowfall record do you disagree with?

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Over 90% success rate for 14 out of the last 15 La Ninas spanning 30 years.

What, specifically are you responding to?   The statistical correlation between ENSO 3.4 and NYC seasonal snowfall falls well below statistically relevant skill.

 

And, why, exactly is 4" a meteorologically significant threshold?  If we magically get 3.87" of snow vs 4.03" inches of snow we are SCREWED!

 

Sounds like overfitting to me, but what do I know.

[NorthShoreWx]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Exactly which part of the historic snowfall record do you disagree with?

The trend line is misleading.  It compares the past couple of years to the 1800s.  What does that look like if you start the chart in 1980?

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

What, specifically are you responding to?   The statistical correlation between ENSO 3.4 and NYC seasonal snowfall falls well below statistically relevant skill.

 

And, why, exactly is 4" a meteorologically significant threshold?  If we magically get 3.87" of snow vs 4.03" inches of snow we are SCREWED!

 

Sounds like overfitting to me, but what do I know.

 

Since 1995-1996 we have had 15 La Niña winters as defined by the RONI index. 14 out of 15 of those winters followed a repeating pattern which has been common the last 30 years. EWR, NYC, and LGA December snowfall pattern repeated throughout the entire winter. The Decembers with under 4” of snowfall at those stations went on to below average seasonal snowfall. With the Decembers over 4” or snow featuring average to naive average snowfall. 

You might ask how can this work out over 90% of the time?  My guess is that La Ninas tend to show what they are capable of early on in the season. Plus as our climate has warmed it has lead to more repeating and persistent patterns. So I view this December to winter snowfall relationship more as a marker of a deeper underlying shared pattern  rather than something that is directly causing the outcome. 

20 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The trend line is misleading.  It compares the past couple of years to the 1800s.  What does that look like if you start the chart in 1980?

What is misleading about showing the long term snowfall trend in NYC since the regular observations began in the late 1800s? As the long term climate has warmed, the snowfall has gone down.

There have been shorter term up trends like from the 80s to 10s against the long term decline.

Plus snowfall measurements prior to the 1980s would be higher if measurements were taken as frequently as we do today.They also substituted melted down snow gauge measurements at times like in 1888 blizzard which undercounted the higher ratios back in the much colder era.

So the actual downward trend line is steeper if we correct for the different way we measure snow now.

[SnowGoose69]

Still think we got another 36 hours or so til Sunday is figured out.  There continues to be a risk of anything from C-1 inch, several inches, a rainer, or a miss completely.  I am still not that sold on any major warmup, unfortunately there may be a 3-5 stretch that hits the XMas window dead on but until that WPO as Don has pointed out goes positive there is a chance that ridging isn't extended to the E Coast or the NE for more than just a brief period.  The EPO pop too on the EPS drops back towards neutral by 12/25

[MJO812]

Gfs more amplified for sunday

[MJO812]

Getting there

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Getting there

flurries verbatim

[the_other_guy]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Exactly which part of the historic snowfall record do you disagree with?

Nothing with history. You have a warm agenda. MJO has a snow agenda. The whole forum knows it. If you pick a point between the two of you, it is likely accurate

Warmth! Warming! Fast Jet! No snow ever again…haha

[WeatherGeek2025]

Hopefully I am good luck, I made a thread for the upcoming potential.

 

 

 

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Nothing with history. You have a warm agenda. MJO has a snow agenda. The whole forum knows it. If you pick a point between the two of you, it is likely accurate

Warmth! Warming! Fast Jet! No snow ever again…haha

What you call an agenda is simply the recognition of how much warmer our climate has become. We have had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 with only 1 top 10 coldest. So our colder periods like December 1 through December 16th this month have been few and far between. The link below shows just how much of a novelty this cold period has been compared to all the warm  months in the 2020s so far.

But I get it that you are a bit of a joker which is fine. I also come from a practical joker background and I can be a bit of a stand up comedian in person. We would probably have a fun time if we ever met at forum conference. Many of my friends from Long Beach which were in the aviation industry also had great sense of humor which I appreciated.

One of the wildest times post flight at the local airport bars occurred after encountering some surprise 60 KT winds which weren’t forecast very well on landing at JFK back in the late 80s. My friends roommate was one of the best pilots at the time and he said it was his bumpiest landing he ever had at JFK. The whole flight crew ran straight for the bar after that flight. 

 

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

flurries verbatim

Wrong

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Can't believe all the complaining here and some folks saying we will never have a return to several above average snowfall seasons in a row here - - once again look at  this history of NYC snowfall and try to explain it - we will return to above average snowfall seasons soon enough - its just that some of you younger folks have been spoiled by all of the  much above average seasons since 2000........without a long stretch of much below normal seasons 

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

100% correct!!

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

100% correct!!

 

Next winter may be telling, its TBD but if we have lets say a 0.6-1.2 El Nino and we continue to see the PDO sit more near -1 to like + 0.5 we really want to see some degree of slowing Pac flow/less -PNA etc...if we still see a heavily Nina type pattern even in that type of regime we may be in trouble or at least waiting 5-10 years til we see the Pac go back to a +PDO ERA