December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

[WestBabylonWeather]

23 degrees 

[WeatherGeek2025]

19 here

[MJO812]

0z gfs for Sunday 

[MJO812]

Cmc way further north . 

[RU848789]

AIFS has been fairly consistent on this threat.  Sign me up.  Note that there's a few to several inches of snow before this storm N of 84 on this map.  

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

AIFS has been fairly consistent on this threat.  Sign me up...

And Upton and Mt. Holly are dismissing the storm all together with Sunny Skies......as of this evenings updates - NY NJ PA Weather  agrees with this snow map........Who is a Weenie to believe ?

 

[RU848789]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

And Upton and Mt. Holly are dismissing the storm all together with Sunny Skies......as of this evenings updates - NY NJ PA Weather  agrees with this snow map........Who is a Weenie to believe ?

 

Well, given our recent track record, betting against snow isn't the dumbest thing in the world, lol.  

[RU848789]

Bad track for most of us, but at least there's a storm on the Euro...

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Bad track for most of us, but at least there's a storm on the Euro...

 

Probably - I still think when the advertised SOI starts to crash towards the end of December that's when the southern jet will begin to produce more wound up systems along with another Strat Warming Event the cold enough air will be available producing more frozen percip...........

[RU848789]

Looks like the Euro Op is likely on the NW side of the ensemble envelope, given the Ens mean...