MJO812 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 40 minutes ago, eduggs said: The last two GFS op runs are well east of the GEFS mean days 5 through 6 with the shortwave and SLP in the east. The GEFS mean shows precipitation primarily in the lower MS valley while the op GFS shows it along and off the east coast. Discounting the op runs for now though an eastward trend is noted in the other mid-range op models. The GEFS seem to be somewhat of a compromise between the 12z EPS and GEPS. The GEFS would put us right on the edge of both significant precipitation and marginal temperatures for wintry precipitation. 18z AI Euro ticked northwest. Gives the coast and Inland some accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Anyone looking at the 0z gfs ? Nice snowstorm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago ka ching on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Can't complain about the 0z GFS. We haven't had a widespread coastal snowstorm like that in a while. Gorgeous ouput! CMC, ICON, ECM, and ensembles close enough for interest. Hopefully no big swings from here on out (doubtful)... Small, incremental improvements would be ideal. We are still almost a week out, so it's still going to be tough to pull this off I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: Can't complain about the 0z GFS. We haven't had a widespread coastal snowstorm like that in a while. Gorgeous ouput! CMC, ICON, ECM, and ensembles close enough for interest. Hopefully no big swings from here on out (doubtful)... Small, incremental improvements would be ideal. We are still almost a week out, so it's still going to be tough to pull this off I think. Gfs is active and cold . Nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago The UK is also an excellent run at 0z (both surface and aloft). Supports the GFS - maybe slightly better even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is an active and cold run. Nice to see. The 0z GFS is an absolutely filthy glutton for snow. I'm going to pretend I didn't see the extended run and keep my personal focus on the mid-range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Just now, eduggs said: The 0z GFS is an absolutely filthy glutton for snow. I'm going to pretend I didn't see the extended run and keep my personal focus on the mid-range. Nice ridge out west and plenty of cold. What a turnaround from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nice ridge out west and plenty of cold. What a turnaround from the models. The GFS retrogrades the CA ULL west into the Pacific. If that doesn't happen, the longwave flow across the US would be significantly altered. Our downstream weather is extremely sensitive to the modeled evolution of the western trof over this period. Could still end up balls cold or periodically torched days 6-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Ukie is also on board with the storm along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 0z GEFS is slightly drier/south compared to 18z. So the GFS and GEFS moved towards each other this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Anyone looking at the 0z gfs ? Nice snowstorm next week. The important feature is the strong enough cold enough HP in southeast Canada staying PUT long enough to keep feeding the cold enough air in and storm track is perfect Benchmark because of this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The OZ UKMET looks to be a closer to the coast track as the HP in southeast Canada is not as strong - starting at least as Frozen in the metro - the Canadian and the Euro AI are offshore tracks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The 0Z Euro starts as frozen in the metro BUT that HP does not stay anchored like in the GFS run so there is a change over to rain - still to early to predict the outcome except to say the storm chances are increasing and a frozen to rain scenario is favored right now IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: The 0Z Euro starts as frozen in the metro BUT that HP does not stay anchored like in the GFS run so there is a change over to rain - still to early to predict the outcome except to say the storm chances are increasing and a frozen to rain scenario is favored right now IMO Quite possible. Just need the right track. Here is the 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago We can only go down from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted 4 minutes ago Share Posted 4 minutes ago 1 minute ago, binbisso said: We can only go down from here. The clickbait crowd will be going into overdrive. Imagine all the weather segments that will lead with this… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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