Tue 11/11/25 Minor impact OBS-Nowcasts for marginal scattered gusts 45-50 MPH 9A-9P and possibly the first snow Trace of the season at CP

[wdrag]

For fun, since we have modeled guidance posts the past several days of a deep highly anomalous cold unstable trough passage Tuesday.  Momentum transfer via the NAM FOUS BL Wind hreshold of 27 kt and the Richardson Number as viewed on Bob Harts web pages, suggests winds do not exceed 45 MPH .  However ECMWF EPS suggests marginal gusts 45-50 MPH southern part of the NYC subforum midday spreading into the NYC-Long Island and ridges above 1000 feet late in the day or evening. Impact mainly air travel and possibly isolated or scattered broken branches impeding traffic here and there.

Of greater interest to the NYC subforum is the likelihood of flurries or even scattered light snow showers moving across the forum area including NYC-Li midday-afternoon. Could this be CP's first trace of snow for the 25-26 winter?

06z/10 EPS range via prob 10% (high gust) and 90% (low gust)

06z/10 median wind gust (marginal) 

and First measurable snow history

 

Posted fina 1218PM/10 (0718z/10

 

[wdrag]

18z/10 ECMWF op says prepare for flurries tomorrow and gusts to at least 45 MPH parts of our area with power outages, esp NJ/PA/e LI. 

40KT gust ATL recently, best fit 18z ECMWF. All other models a bit more conservative.

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 4sw:  515A 0.2" and 27F... snow starting to stick on driveway. Steady light snow in progress. Walt

[wdrag]

We do know Vernon NJ has measurable melted snowfall last 3 hours per the NJ Climate network. 

Also Roanoke 41 KT recently. snow showers and wind coming for at least some in our NYC subforum. 

[binbisso]

Furries here in the bronx 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

First flakes of the season here in the bronx. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Picked up 1" of snow. Currently cloudy 25.1

[wdrag]

Thanks for the obs... snow today NYC metro mainly before 2PM if its to occur.

Wind gust tools too low throughout the NYC forum.  Trying to avoid being wrong, but I expect gusts to reach 40 knots at least at some I95 corridor ASOS's this afternoon PHL-NYC-BDR.  Gusts already higher than Blend Of Models and all tools.  This is an anomalously strong trough passage. I add the power outage map from 625AM as a baseline check to look back at 4PM today to see if anything happened.  I don't like crying wolf but I am a fan of the ECMWF wind gust tool and secondarily all other tools. The secondary's are all lower.  I prepare for a buffeting this afternoon and possibly a downed tree branch-power outage.  

[donsutherland1]

Larchmont, NY:

[Bxstormwatcher360]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Larchmont, NY:

2 good bursts of snow in the last 25 mins here. Looks nice with the wind blowing.

[sussexcountyobs]

Roads are treacherous. Ice under coating of snow. Numerous accidents on rt 23 in Stockholm and Jefferson. Also one on Canistear rd 1 block from my house. Sitting in dead stop traffic on 23 in front of old Jorgensen's restaurant. Road crews really dropped the ball on this little event.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Roads are treacherous. Ice under coating of snow. Numerous accidents on rt 23 in Stockholm and Jefferson. Also one on Canistear rd 1 block from my house. Sitting in dead stop traffic on 23 in front of old Jorgensen's restaurant. Road crews really dropped the ball on this little event.

Nov 11th,doubt they expected more snow then forecasted with a flash freeze overnight. It happens.

[Nibor]

First snow flakes of the year here in Jersey City. 

[kat5hurricane]

It's what I would qualify as light snow in Manhattan. What a beautiful sight

[FPizz]

[wdrag]

Keep em coming... more snow this morning, maybe a heavier burst for NYC than what has already occurred. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Official first flakes in west babylon 

[wdrag]

JFK and LGA first flurries of the season between 711A-739A. I am unsure of what the normal first date of Trace.  A big hand for ECMWF and HRRR on this one.

[STORMANLI]

Small Flakes

[Bxstormwatcher360]

It's possible some of the same areas get snow later as well, depends how much of it gets over the apps. It's snowing pretty good in central pa currently.

[STORMANLI]

Would expect enough instability to produce.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, STORMANLI said:

Would expect enough instability to produce.

HRRR has a nice small burst around noon for NYC 

[ForestHillWx]

Cold and saw a few flurries in Chester, but nothing like up north. 

[Picard]

Pretty up this way, a quick 0.3" in Sparta to whiten everything into a mini winter wonderland.
The roads were quite treacherous.  The salt spreaders were just getting going as I got closer to school.

I was concerned about all of our busses and student drivers.  Thankfully, I haven't heard of any accidents from this morning, although a few busses were late and had to detour around 206 in Sandyston.

[Rmine1]

This is already better than last year!

coating on car tops in Brightwaters 

[FPizz]

Flurries

[wdrag]

Majority of ASOS's LI and nw NJ have had their first flurries between 7 and 9A. Not sure of mean first date of T.  I thought it used to be in the LCD. Can't seem to get XMACIS to look at Trace or greater, first-last date. Minor so unless someone adds, will let it go.  I'll take it as a positive. 

[Sundog]

Here's the coating from the earlier burst of snow:

[Brian5671]

Feels like a January day here-windy cold and 35

[2112wxgrl]

Many accidents in Sussex County, including my 18 yr old on the way to school. Thankfully, she’s okay. Trooper got 6 more calls while writing up the report. He noted the icy conditions as he himself slid while pulling up to the scene.