November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[CoastalWx]

10 hours ago, dendrite said:

There’s an inverted trough that swings through there N to S. The mesos initially push a convective band (horizontal to the flow) southwestward through the city and then behind that it aligns into a typical LES streamer where it slowly shifts east from the city to IN. But I agree with Scoot. I think the heaviest is more east toward the IN/IL border. But it should be pretty cold on the west side of the LES with NW sfc flow. 

Still having trouble seeing their forecast.

[Supernovice]

This looks fairly legit and I’m fairly jealous 

[Snowedin]

Tropical downpours coming down good right now. Now I know why there’s been so many frogs hopping around this evening!

[dendrite]

So yeah…that’s your inverted trough moving through right now. The LES band is setting up in its wake and will move eastward with time.

[dendrite]

Here’s the 500mb vortmax that is inducing the inverted trough. You can see the “kinks” in the isobars it’s causing (the actual trough) as the PVA induces pressure falls.

It’s the same type of way we get our inverted troughs. But it’s perfectly situated so that it moves southward over Lake Michigan. The extra instability from the warm lake waters is making this locally heavier than it would’ve been otherwise. And yeah, then the low level flow aligns along the long length of the lake and we get the LES streamer behind it for a short time.