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OBS for Halloween 2025 afternoon-evening scattered gusts 45+MPH w a few damage power outage reports from limbs/trees down

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
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Follow and. further NWS updated advisory statements and possible police detours.

Now that yesterdays has passed, backside wind gusts will be increasing to 40 MPH throughout the area this afternoon, with scattered or isolated gusts to 50 MPH breaking a few tree limbs and even causing rain softened ground to permit fully leaved trees to possibly topple. This would be life threatening to those unfortunately in the path of limbs breaking. Be aware of possible detours and delays this afternoon-evening. 

Air travel continues to be impacted, especially Noon to near midnight with certainly delays, and probably some cancels. 

Using the 00z/31 EPS max wind gust tool, max gusts are anticipated to be 45-50 MPH with the SPC HREF Fire MINIMUM wind gust tool offering at a minimum, near 40MPH gusts on land, except 50 MPH one the ridges and of course on the water.   I do not have access to other sounding wind gust tools. 714A/31

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wdrag

wdrag

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I just checked the 09z/31 HRRR and it doesn't forecast 45+ MPH for our area today except ridges/water. Maintain NWS messaging. I do think there will be a few gusts 40-44kt (46MPH+) so the conservative guidance is that... I can live with the 00z/31 SPC HREF MIN gust tool and the EPS MAX Gust tool. 

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wdrag

wdrag

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All comments agreed... I am a little leery of the sounding but I erred on the side of caution mainly cause of EPS wind gusts and wet ground.  Sometimes the EPS is 5 MPH too high and concerned the 12z HRRR itself as well as 06z NAM just not quite there.  06z FOUS BL wind 26 KT at KLGA which is just below my criteria for alerting wind advisory. 1 knot below is possible modeling error so it can happen but if it doesn't, then many models had us just below. anyway, caution advised this afternoon and a beneficial call. 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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6 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Winds howling and temps have dropped.  Was kinda warmish when I let dog out this morning.  A bit chilly now.  The less kids coming to door tonight means more reeses for me this weekend lol

With it being a Friday I think we get more kids...doubt some wind keeps them from free candy lol

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wdrag

wdrag

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Yes criteria gusts at many of the ASOS's 40-43 kt as of 3PM ish.  Conversion factors on the 06z models except ECMWF were too weak. Multi NWS office Wind Advisory verifies!

Power outages today, almost twice that of yesterday-see below. We've had a brief outage in Wantage NJ. Most of the branches I've seen down in Sussex County from Wantage, Andover-Hopatcong are the 1-2" dead ones but one larger in Hopatcong was being removed around 130PM.

Outages by StateOutages by Utility
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