November 2025 General Discussion

[nvck]

8 hours ago, KeenerWx said:

IEM is such a fun little rabbit hole to sink into. Especially when things are quiet. Looked at tornado warning counts over the past nearing 20 years (2005-2025). A few things stood out to me in particular right away. 
 

There was one small area in Illinois that has had 0 tornado warnings in the past 20 years, near Dalzell (NNW of Peru) in LaSalle County. 
 

 

Similarly, two small areas in Iowa that have had 0 tornado warnings in same period. One in W Winneshiek County, around/east of Protivin. The other in Ida County around Battle Creek.
 

 

Indiana appeared to have full coverage over the period, which is what I’d expected from IL/IA. MN/WI/MI/OH had several gaps, but again expected given areas reaching further outside the core climatological favored areas for svr/tor. 
 

One interesting part for MN, though, was the boundary between Grand Folks & Duluth CWA. Particularly pronounced between Wadena & Cass Counties. You’ll see it immediately.  There’s definitely more county boundary differences that become noticeable but that one jumped out to me quite a bit compared to the rest of the field I looked at. 

 

 

nice! yeah its a really easy way to spend an hour or two when i should be studying, to waste time. grand forks does seem a little trigger happy on their eastern counties there...

[Brian D]

Now that gov is open again, have data for Sept & Oct. Both on the warmer side. 5 & 10 yr trend charts for each month shown respectively. 

[A-L-E-K]

the euro is pretty rough 

[TheClimateChanger]

https://twitter.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1990908932274225661?s=20

[A-L-E-K]

miss south^

[DocATL]

Don’t want to be in the bullseye of the storm tracks this far out. Good to have the pieces coming into place.

[nvck]

got down to 18 this morning, with some very efficient radiational cooling. Still have a layer of ice pellets on the grass from yesterday's bizarre very wet snow/sleet mix. 

[A-L-E-K]

looks like we're waiting until past tday before any system of note looks likely to impact the region

snow chances still naso great imby climatologically speaking but we're not far off now

[Frog Town]

You don't see this that often so things can, and have, been worse.  

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, Frog Town said:

You don't see this that often so things can, and have, been worse.  

 Absolutely they've looked/been worse but last year was cold and slightly AN snow for my area including a solid white Christmas but Dec climo is much stronger here as well. Second morning in the mid-teens and large ponds held ice all day despite ample sun. Matter of time now and seeing if a decent system can come together to kick-start the December party.

[Jackstraw]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

 Absolutely they've looked/been worse but last year was cold and slightly AN snow for my area including a solid white Christmas but Dec climo is much stronger here as well. Second morning in the mid-teens and large ponds held ice all day despite ample sun. Matter of time now and seeing if a decent system can come together to kick-start the December party.

My climo isn't exactly December friendly but lately winter isn't friendly period. That snow the first week of this month was half of my total last year. That ain't climo, that's just stupid lol

[cyclone77]

Don't think I've ever seen this much drought throughout the entire country.  Where the hell have all the weather systems gone?

 

[A-L-E-K]

has a weird splotchy look too

suspect the answer is bad news

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[Brian D]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Don't think I've ever seen this much drought throughout the entire country.  Where the hell have all the weather systems gone?

 

Only 0.21" so far this month here. 2.18" is the avg for Nov. A very dry Oct-Nov up here. Oct was 10th driest with 0.63".

[TheClimateChanger]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Looking specifically at Erie, the low end GLERL projection would bring lake levels down to 173.78 meters by late winter, which has only been reached or exceeded twice since the mid 1960s on a monthly average - 173.78m in March 2003 & 173.75m in February 2011. That's going with the low-end projection, so it might not happen, but certainly a stark contrast from the near record high levels of 2019 & 2020.

[Chinook]

5 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Don't think I've ever seen this much drought throughout the entire country.  Where the hell have all the weather systems gone?

 

at 46.12% drought, it's the most since 49.84% drought one year ago (almost exactly)

Blame La Nina

or something smarter than that.

[A-L-E-K]

getting some low grade mammies from these elevated waa showers 

[cyclone77]

Had a few raindrops hit the windshield on the drive home from work.  Guess it wasn't a total shutout for today's system.

[Baum]

13 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Had a few raindrops hit the windshield on the drive home from work.  Guess it wasn't a total shutout for today's system.

Rarely has anyone captured the pure excitement of our recent run of weather, so well and descript  in written word.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Fantasy land on the GFS looks really good for the upper Midwest, but time will tell if it’s a trend or mirage.
 

0.03” of precipitation in November, something has got to give. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Euro and GFS both have a broad, highly amplified western trough for the end of the month. Far too early for specifics especially lately, other than to say it "should do something somewhere," from to  to .

Ceiling might be limited by a tendency for a positively tilted ejection with the stronger flow hanging on the back side, and of course thermodynamics this time of year. Although after days like February 8, 2024 I never count out tornado threats based solely on T/Td values, it looks like this setup would need colder temperatures aloft than what's currently being depicted verbatim to realize adequate instability.

 

[cyclone77]

16 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Euro and GFS both have a broad, highly amplified western trough for the end of the month. Far too early for specifics especially lately, other than to say it "should do something somewhere," from to  to .

Ceiling might be limited by a tendency for a positively tilted ejection with the stronger flow hanging on the back side, and of course thermodynamics this time of year. Although after days like February 8, 2024 I never count out tornado threats based solely on T/Td values, it looks like this setup would need colder temperatures aloft than what's currently being depicted verbatim to realize adequate instability.

 

Definitely something in the works for this period.  We just need the shortwaves to play ball and sync up properly.  Nice to have something to watch for a change.

[A-L-E-K]

Would be nice if this mid range look doesn't go poof

[Baum]

Who’s going to start the thread: “Post Turkey Day Hooker” :BEYOND THANKSGIVING, SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A TURN TOWARDS   A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS   THIS WEEKEND GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. OVERALL, THE   LARGER SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO FAVOR   UPPER TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER   RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE   PRESENCE OF GREATLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL   FLOW INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN SUCH A PATTERN IS NOTORIOUS FOR   STEERING NUMEROUS IMPULSES ACROSS OUR REGION. ACCORDINGLY, SOME   PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WE   HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT AS   IS TYPICAL, WHILE THE PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY ACTIVE, THE   FINER SCALE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT REMAIN LARGELY UNCLEAR AND WILL   NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS   PERIOD WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL   WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT COULD IMPACT   HOLIDAY TRAVEL. STAY TUNED.  

- LOT 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

One last day of record warm temperatures before reality sets in. Getting the last of the yard work completed and tracking 3 systems, life is good. 

[Brian D]

Looks like 3-6" potential starting tomorrow night. 

Followed by a decent chill for late Nov.

[hawkeye_wx]

The ICON and GFS are coming in hot this morning for the end-of-week snow event.  Both have potential for 6+" across Iowa and Illinois if the rates are heavy enough to counter the warm ground.

[cyclone77]

[hawkeye_wx]

Meanwhile, the Canadian is much weaker and drier with this system, plus it is dry Sunday-Tuesday while the GFS has two more significant events.