November 2025 General Discussion

[Chicago916]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

track would be a banger month or two later but should be a white rain event at best imby

few models selling some LES making it's way into NE IL, riding obviously 

 

Canadian now with a casual 17" imby lol

[Spartman]

Shades of November 2018....

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, Chicago916 said:

Canadian now with a casual 17" imby lol

that model has been shitting out huge LES events on our side of the lake for two or three years now, none of which have verified

euro and others showing some accumulating snow in and around the area tho so decent chance we see some flakes out of this to kick off the season

[Chicago916]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

that model has been shitting out huge LES events on our side of the lake for two or three years now, none of which have verified

euro and others showing some accumulating snow in and around the area tho so decent chance we see some flakes out of this to kick off the season

Yeah I think the Ukie as well recently have been completely inaccurate. I'm cool with some snow, which at least looks likely with some mood flakes this weekend.

[hawkeye_wx]

The model trend is for a weaker system as it moves across Iowa.  There is no guarantee I'll see any flakes.

[sbnwx85]

Getting damn near giddy.

More persistent lake-effect snow appears most likely during the
Sunday night through Monday evening time frame as very cold north-
northwesterly low level flow sets up along Lake Michigan with H85
temperatures plunging to near -10 deg C above a still very warm lake
surface (Lake-H85 difference around 20 C), courtesy of yet
another (this time rather vigorous) short wave diving across the
western Great Lakes during the day on Sunday. While it is
difficult to iron out any specifics at this time range, this
does appear to be something to watch over the next several days.
The latest NBM shows roughly 60 percent probabilities of 4+
inches of 24-hour snowfall accumulation across Berrien, La
Porte, and St. Joseph (IN) counties. Further, latest ECMWF EFI
shows values of around 0.9 downwind of LM with Shift of Tails
(SOT) values of 2 to 5. This would generally indicate greater
confidence in potential for a more significant event relative to
climatology. Stay tuned.

[A-L-E-K]

showers and storms look like a lock tonight before another day in the 60s (maybe our last of the year?) 

[WestMichigan]

Looks like I am about to get NAM'd.  Per usual cut this in half and maybe we are talking something realistic.

[sbnwx85]

RGEM says congrats, Chicago. This might set some kind of record. /s

In all seriousness, Pivotal's output isn't as wild (obvious error in COD's algorithm), spitting out 10" in Chicago thanks to an intense mesolow crashing ashore.

NAM and Euro appear to be picking up on a mesolow, as well, but it's a little slower -- coming onshore overnight Sunday.

The timing of this early-season lake-effect event favors localized "big dog" totals, as it occurs at night. Plus, lots of deep cold air and a possible Lake Superior connection. Of course, where the bands set up/mesolow forms will be key.

Happy tracking!

[Snowstorms]

Going to miss out on the snow events this winter as I've moved to Texas now 

 

[roardog]

3 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Going to miss out on the snow events this winter as I've moved to Texas now 

 

That’s quite a change. lol

[cyclone77]

Picked up 0.01" overnight.  

[A-L-E-K]

rgem takes the mesolow and flakes practically to atlanta

[A-L-E-K]

9 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Going to miss out on the snow events this winter as I've moved to Texas now 

 

brutal downgrade

[sbnwx85]

NAM dumps overhead for a few hours. In another month that's like three feet of snow, but I'd take 8 in early November. 

Still lots of leaves on the trees so whoever gets dumped on will also have tree damage and power outages to deal with.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Miss south, suppression to start the season. Our time will come.

[A-L-E-K]

thought today might be our last 60+ of 2025 but models selling temps at or above 60 in the extended

[Baum]

27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

thought today might be our last 60+ of 2025 but models selling temps at or above 60 in the extended

Last 60 these days is normally Christmas week

[A-L-E-K]

how could i forget

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Going to miss out on the snow events this winter as I've moved to Texas now 

 

omg are you serious!? Why the move?

[michsnowfreak]

Excitement for the first snowflakes/snowfall never gets old! Neither does the fact that the models are all over the place with each cycle.

[Powerball]

12 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Going to miss out on the snow events this winter as I've moved to Texas now 

 

Don't be so sure.

It's snowed every single year I've been here since November 2020, including 2 events that were 2"+. Larry Cosgrove's even calling for banner winter with 6" this season (for what little it's worth), lol...

What you're *NOT* going to see though is snowcover hanging around forever (unless there's another freak February 2021 disaster) and cloudy skies for 9 months out of the year. The sun actually comes out and stays out in between storm systems here

[A-L-E-K]

rgem, ukmet, and euro really hitting the mesolow into chicago, american models naso much

 

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Don't be so sure.

It's snowed every single year I've been here since November 2020, including 2 events that were 2"+. Larry Cosgrove's even calling for banner winter with 6" this season (for what little it's worth), lol...

What you're *NOT* going to see though is snowcover hanging around forever (unless there's another freak February 2021 disaster) and cloudy skies for 9 months out of the year. The sun actually comes out and stays out in between storm systems here

I dont think that one or two days of snowflakes a year will be quite the same as a Toronto winter.

[Powerball]

55 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont think that one or two days of snowflakes a year will be quite the same as a Toronto winter.

For sure it won't be anything like a Toronto winter.

But it's also not like going to Miami either, where they get *NO* snow or cold threats what so ever.

[A-L-E-K]

worst of both worlds^

[Chicago Storm]

If you're pulling for a scenario for the weekend, you want it to be the Euro (and company) solution... ULL, inverted trough and lake meso-low combo.

The lake parameters some guidance is showing is top tier.

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

omg are you serious!? Why the move?

Got an amazing job opportunity down here and I couldn't say no to it haha. Toronto kind of became unaffordable. 

But I'm going to miss winter storms. Might have to come to Michigan every now and then to experience some snow. 

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

Don't be so sure.

It's snowed every single year I've been here since November 2020, including 2 events that were 2"+. Larry Cosgrove's even calling for banner winter with 6" this season (for what little it's worth), lol...

What you're *NOT* going to see though is snowcover hanging around forever (unless there's another freak February 2021 disaster) and cloudy skies for 9 months out of the year. The sun actually comes out and stays out in between storm systems here

Really? That's interesting. Some of the locals I've talked to say they experience more ice than snow here. I'm closer to Fort Worth. 

I think 2" here shuts down the entire city lol. Maybe we'll great a freak storm like Houston did last winter. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Got an amazing job opportunity down here and I couldn't say no to it haha. Toronto kind of became unaffordable. 

But I'm going to miss winter storms. Might have to come to Michigan every now and then to experience some snow. 

Congrats on the job! And yes, come up and visit!