Chicago916 Posted yesterday at 11:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:16 AM 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: track would be a banger month or two later but should be a white rain event at best imby few models selling some LES making it's way into NE IL, riding obviously Canadian now with a casual 17" imby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Shades of November 2018.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 1 hour ago, Chicago916 said: Canadian now with a casual 17" imby lol that model has been shitting out huge LES events on our side of the lake for two or three years now, none of which have verified euro and others showing some accumulating snow in and around the area tho so decent chance we see some flakes out of this to kick off the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Just now, A-L-E-K said: that model has been shitting out huge LES events on our side of the lake for two or three years now, none of which have verified euro and others showing some accumulating snow in and around the area tho so decent chance we see some flakes out of this to kick off the season Yeah I think the Ukie as well recently have been completely inaccurate. I'm cool with some snow, which at least looks likely with some mood flakes this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago The model trend is for a weaker system as it moves across Iowa. There is no guarantee I'll see any flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Getting damn near giddy. More persistent lake-effect snow appears most likely during the Sunday night through Monday evening time frame as very cold north- northwesterly low level flow sets up along Lake Michigan with H85 temperatures plunging to near -10 deg C above a still very warm lake surface (Lake-H85 difference around 20 C), courtesy of yet another (this time rather vigorous) short wave diving across the western Great Lakes during the day on Sunday. While it is difficult to iron out any specifics at this time range, this does appear to be something to watch over the next several days. The latest NBM shows roughly 60 percent probabilities of 4+ inches of 24-hour snowfall accumulation across Berrien, La Porte, and St. Joseph (IN) counties. Further, latest ECMWF EFI shows values of around 0.9 downwind of LM with Shift of Tails (SOT) values of 2 to 5. This would generally indicate greater confidence in potential for a more significant event relative to climatology. Stay tuned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago showers and storms look like a lock tonight before another day in the 60s (maybe our last of the year?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Looks like I am about to get NAM'd. Per usual cut this in half and maybe we are talking something realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago RGEM says congrats, Chicago. This might set some kind of record. /s In all seriousness, Pivotal's output isn't as wild (obvious error in COD's algorithm), spitting out 10" in Chicago thanks to an intense mesolow crashing ashore. NAM and Euro appear to be picking up on a mesolow, as well, but it's a little slower -- coming onshore overnight Sunday. The timing of this early-season lake-effect event favors localized "big dog" totals, as it occurs at night. Plus, lots of deep cold air and a possible Lake Superior connection. Of course, where the bands set up/mesolow forms will be key. Happy tracking! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Going to miss out on the snow events this winter as I've moved to Texas now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 3 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Going to miss out on the snow events this winter as I've moved to Texas now That’s quite a change. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Picked up 0.01" overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago rgem takes the mesolow and flakes practically to atlanta 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Going to miss out on the snow events this winter as I've moved to Texas now brutal downgrade 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NAM dumps overhead for a few hours. In another month that's like three feet of snow, but I'd take 8 in early November. Still lots of leaves on the trees so whoever gets dumped on will also have tree damage and power outages to deal with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted 56 minutes ago Share Posted 56 minutes ago Miss south, suppression to start the season. Our time will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 27 minutes ago Share Posted 27 minutes ago thought today might be our last 60+ of 2025 but models selling temps at or above 60 in the extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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