November 2025 General Discussion

[Chicago916]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

track would be a banger month or two later but should be a white rain event at best imby

few models selling some LES making it's way into NE IL, riding obviously 

 

Canadian now with a casual 17" imby lol

[Spartman]

Shades of November 2018....

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, Chicago916 said:

Canadian now with a casual 17" imby lol

that model has been shitting out huge LES events on our side of the lake for two or three years now, none of which have verified

euro and others showing some accumulating snow in and around the area tho so decent chance we see some flakes out of this to kick off the season

[Chicago916]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

that model has been shitting out huge LES events on our side of the lake for two or three years now, none of which have verified

euro and others showing some accumulating snow in and around the area tho so decent chance we see some flakes out of this to kick off the season

Yeah I think the Ukie as well recently have been completely inaccurate. I'm cool with some snow, which at least looks likely with some mood flakes this weekend.

[hawkeye_wx]

The model trend is for a weaker system as it moves across Iowa.  There is no guarantee I'll see any flakes.

[sbnwx85]

Getting damn near giddy.

More persistent lake-effect snow appears most likely during the
Sunday night through Monday evening time frame as very cold north-
northwesterly low level flow sets up along Lake Michigan with H85
temperatures plunging to near -10 deg C above a still very warm lake
surface (Lake-H85 difference around 20 C), courtesy of yet
another (this time rather vigorous) short wave diving across the
western Great Lakes during the day on Sunday. While it is
difficult to iron out any specifics at this time range, this
does appear to be something to watch over the next several days.
The latest NBM shows roughly 60 percent probabilities of 4+
inches of 24-hour snowfall accumulation across Berrien, La
Porte, and St. Joseph (IN) counties. Further, latest ECMWF EFI
shows values of around 0.9 downwind of LM with Shift of Tails
(SOT) values of 2 to 5. This would generally indicate greater
confidence in potential for a more significant event relative to
climatology. Stay tuned.

[A-L-E-K]

showers and storms look like a lock tonight before another day in the 60s (maybe our last of the year?) 

[WestMichigan]

Looks like I am about to get NAM'd.  Per usual cut this in half and maybe we are talking something realistic.