OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.

[SnoSki14]

GFS looking a bit stronger, more organized 

System does look quite potent on satellite 

[psv88]

46 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Still a fairly nice day on the water.  A little chop 15-20kt , but otherwise a beautiful fall morning.  

 

 

Going down the boat later to take down the canvas. A few gusts near 50 and it probably rips off…it’s old and already falling apart 

[wthrmn654]

Highest low tide all week this morning.  It's coming

[Sundog]

Waiting for the Euro to cave

[winterwx21]

17 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Waiting for the Euro to cave

12z Euro doesn't really bring the rain in until tomorrow night, but then gives us a decent soaking tomorrow night and Monday. A little over an inch of rain for this area. Overall this storm doesn't look as bad as it did a few days ago, but I'm glad we're gonna get some much needed rain. 

[TJW014]

In person university classes cancelled Monday. Repeat texts from sheriff's department and the township about this system tomorrow/Monday. 

Full on bread & milk mode from the officials

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, TJW014 said:

In person university classes cancelled Monday. Repeat texts from sheriff's department and the township about this system tomorrow/Monday. 

Full on bread & milk mode from the officials

A run on the supermarkets for a run of the mill rainstorm lol

[the_other_guy]

6 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

In person university classes cancelled Monday. Repeat texts from sheriff's department and the township about this system tomorrow/Monday. 

Full on bread & milk mode from the officials

Isnt it Columbus Day? Surprised there were classes at all!

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

In person university classes cancelled Monday. Repeat texts from sheriff's department and the township about this system tomorrow/Monday. 

Full on bread & milk mode from the officials

Insanity

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Isnt it Columbus Day? Surprised there were classes at all!

It’s college not elementary school

[qg_omega]

Never seen a 1000mb “strong” Nor’easter before, forecasts are pure insanity

[SnoSki14]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Never seen a 1000mb “strong” Nor’easter before, forecasts are pure insanity

Pressure gradient and prolonged east flow will pile water up. 

[Dark Star]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Never seen a 1000mb “strong” Nor’easter before, forecasts are pure insanity

Possibly because of wind being channeled between the systems, pulling water further inland?

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro doesn't really bring the rain in until tomorrow night, but then gives us a decent soaking tomorrow night and Monday. A little over an inch of rain for this area. Overall this storm doesn't look as bad as it did a few days ago, but I'm glad we're gonna get some much needed rain. 

1-2 inches of rain is plenty we don't need more than that.

 

[uofmiami]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Isnt it Columbus Day? Surprised there were classes at all!

Universities don’t have many holidays.  Only had Labor Day & Thanksgiving off at UM back in the 90s for fall semester. 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Sundog said:

A run on the supermarkets for a run of the mill rainstorm lol

Staten Island half marathon also canceled.

The Road Runners Club said they canceled it because they were afraid for the safety of the runners.....

 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Staten Island half marathon also canceled.

The Road Runners Club said they canceled it because they were afraid for the safety of the runners.....

 

and tomorrow morning will likely be dry lol

[jm1220]

Long weekend ruiner for most. It's a complex interaction with the shortwave to the north which is throwing models for these fits, but generally seems to be settling into a nuisance event that hopefully replenishes the water table to some degree. Back bays and NJ coast will see moderate flooding in some places due to the easterly fetch, but beyond that an inch of rain and some gusts to 40 isn't notable at all. 

[qg_omega]

15 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Possibly because of wind being channeled between the systems, pulling water further inland?

We have had real nor’easters down into the 960s against 1040 highs that were less hyped

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We have had real nor’easters down into the 960s against 1040 highs that were less hyped

media and social media just run wild with everything these days...

[Sundog]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

media and social media just run wild with everything these days...

I hear we're going to have oppressive sunshine later this week, NJ is thinking of declaring a SOE. 

[wdrag]

Comments:

Strength of storm not dependent on Lowest Pres but pressure gradient (MB between high and low at least 1kt/mb-my own rule of thumb) 

Not sure of the average return interval for an October northeast wind coastal wind event of G50 MPH?

This looks to be a bit above average nor'easter in winter taking into account: qpf, coastal flood and wind gusts impact on travel. 

We shall see what wind and water do for any power outages... tomorrow night Monday morning?  Unknown. If there is tree branch on your car... or in the road. 

MINIMUM gusts NJ coast and s Coast LI should be 40-45 MPH per 12z/11 SPC HREF. 

Suggestion is to stay with NWS messaging and not confuse the issue-mislead.  Preparedness can be important. 

 

 

 

[MANDA]

Periods of very light rain, mist and drizzle ongoing here for last 90 minutes or so.

[dseagull]

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I hear we're going to have oppressive sunshine later this week, NJ is thinking of declaring a SOE. 

It really has risen to that level of stupidity.  People are slowly waking up to it, at least.   

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Long weekend ruiner for most. It's a complex interaction with the shortwave to the north which is throwing models for these fits, but generally seems to be settling into a nuisance event that hopefully replenishes the water table to some degree. Back bays and NJ coast will see moderate flooding in some places due to the easterly fetch, but beyond that an inch of rain and some gusts to 40 isn't notable at all. 

Lee Goldberg said we shouldn't blame the models because it's very difficult to make accurate predictions before the low forms.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I hear we're going to have oppressive sunshine later this week, NJ is thinking of declaring a SOE. 

we'll definitely be doing it for frost advisories and freeze warnings at this rate

 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We have had real nor’easters down into the 960s against 1040 highs that were less hyped

Didn't we have hype like this for the April noreaster last Spring?

I remember we were complaining about that too.

 

[dseagull]

Wind is slowly starting to pick up a bit.  Strong enough for spray to ruin my sandwich on my way across the bay, but I simply dont see the Major flood criteria being achieved as forecast.  Im just not buying that this will be 8/10th of a foot less than Sandy.  

I imagine they will slowly walk it down.  

[wthrmn654]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't we have hype like this for the April noreaster last Spring?

I remember we were complaining about that too.

 

Sir I think you mean to say every storm. 

[wthrmn654]

Gusting over 20 mph already. Waves are quite big with white caps. Kinda surprised to see that already.