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Tropical Storm Jerry


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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025
 
...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 44.6W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be required
later today or tonight.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical 
Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6 
West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h).  A 
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is 
expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the 
core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the 
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a 
hurricane in a day or two.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical 
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header 
WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward 
Islands on Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

The system we have been monitoring (Invest 95L) over the tropical 
central Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized thunderstorm 
activity and a low-level center to be considered a tropical cyclone. 
This system is far from land, roughly 1000 miles east of the 
Windward Islands.  An ASCAT pass from around 12Z showed peak winds 
between 35 and 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity 
is set at 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Jerry.  Convective 
bands are increasing around the center, and the strongest winds are 
on the storm's east side. 

Jerry is moving quickly westward at about 21 kt on the 
south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge.  A turn to the 
west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed is expected 
during the next couple of days as Jerry nears the southwestern edge 
of the ridge.  This should bring the core near or to the north of 
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.  Around that 
time, the models show a deep-layer trough amplifying over the 
western Atlantic, which should erode the ridge.  In response to the 
pattern change, Jerry is forecast to turn northward over the 
west-central Atlantic this weekend.  The NHC track forecast is a 
little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best 
agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which 
have been performing quite well so far this year. Interests in the 
northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry as there is 
uncertainty on how close the core of the system will get to the 
islands later this week. 

The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to 
strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds 
appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding 
moisture.  The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a 
hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the 
northern Leeward Islands.  After the system passes by the islands, 
the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry 
moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable 
upper-level wind pattern.  For now, the official forecast shows no 
change in strength from days 3 to 5, but confidence is low for that 
portion of the intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern 
Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should 
monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf, 
and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that 
area later today or tonight.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 11.5N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 12.3N  47.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 13.5N  51.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 14.9N  54.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 16.5N  57.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 18.1N  60.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 19.8N  61.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 24.4N  63.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 29.4N  62.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Hmmm, recon shows Jerry’s circulation might be opening up

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
 
The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating 
Jerry this morning, and the radar and flight-level wind data show 
that the storm remains lopsided with nearly all of the strong winds 
and convection on the system's east side.  The center itself has 
been difficult to fix, but the data generally support a position 
that is located south-southeast of the previous track.  The initial 
intensity is held at 55 kt based on a combination of the aircraft 
data and satellite estimates.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
 
Satellite images, aircraft observations, and ASCAT data indicate
that Jerry is a poorly organized and strongly sheared tropical
storm.  The low-level center is now fully exposed and elongated,
with the main area of deep convection located on the system's south
and southeast sides.  The initial intensity is again held at 55 kt,
but that could be a little generous.  The center of Jerry is less
than 100 miles from the northern Leeward Islands, which is often
close enough to experience strong winds.  However, the ASCAT and
aircraft data showed that the strongest winds are confined to a
region east of the center.  In fact, winds are quite light on the
west side.
 
Jerry has been moving erratically today, but smoothing through the 
fixes suggest that the storm is gradually turning to the right.  The 
initial motion is now estimated to be 300/16 kt.  This general 
motion should continue through early Friday, taking the center of 
the system near or over the northern Leeward Islands during that 
time.  However, as mentioned above, the strongest winds should pass 
to the east of the islands due to Jerry's asymmetric structure.  A 
turn to the north is expected to occur by late tomorrow, and that 
motion should continue through most of the weekend as the storm 
moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge.  Early 
next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is 
forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies.  Jerry is expected to pass 
east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward 
asymmetry, significant impacts appear unlikely there.  No 
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and 
this prediction is in best agreement with the HCCA and Google 
DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
Strengthening in the short term seems unlikely given Jerry's poor 
initial structure.  However, after the storm passes the northern 
Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear could decrease some while 
Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass. Therefore, 
slow strengthening is predicted from late Friday through Sunday. The 
opportunity for strengthening will likely end early next week when 
the system moves into stronger shear and over cooler waters.  The 
NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward due to a combination 
of the storm's poor initial structure and latest guidance.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, 
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through 
Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban 
areas and in steep terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 17.3N  60.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 18.6N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 21.0N  63.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 23.7N  63.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 26.5N  63.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 28.4N  62.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 30.7N  61.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 32.3N  57.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 32.2N  51.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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