yoda Posted Tuesday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:44 PM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 44.6W ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:45 PM Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 The system we have been monitoring (Invest 95L) over the tropical central Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized thunderstorm activity and a low-level center to be considered a tropical cyclone. This system is far from land, roughly 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. An ASCAT pass from around 12Z showed peak winds between 35 and 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Jerry. Convective bands are increasing around the center, and the strongest winds are on the storm's east side. Jerry is moving quickly westward at about 21 kt on the south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as Jerry nears the southwestern edge of the ridge. This should bring the core near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Around that time, the models show a deep-layer trough amplifying over the western Atlantic, which should erode the ridge. In response to the pattern change, Jerry is forecast to turn northward over the west-central Atlantic this weekend. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which have been performing quite well so far this year. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry as there is uncertainty on how close the core of the system will get to the islands later this week. The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the northern Leeward Islands. After the system passes by the islands, the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable upper-level wind pattern. For now, the official forecast shows no change in strength from days 3 to 5, but confidence is low for that portion of the intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf, and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that area later today or tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 11.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.5N 51.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.9N 54.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.5N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 19.8N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:45 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:57 PM Going to be a close call for the islands. Shear is a big wildcard as the NHC notes, but this has major potential if it can avoid that. Another big genesis bust for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted Tuesday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:34 PM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:17 PM Has the look of another over-achiever on sat. HWRF says it gets close to a mid October cat 5. I’ll start putting a little more stock in the hurricane models now that we have a defined system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted Tuesday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:41 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted Tuesday at 09:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:51 PM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted Tuesday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:12 PM @bigtenfan@Scott747 Title update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnow93 Posted Tuesday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:39 PM Jerry's on the ACE board! Let's see if he can get us at or above average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted Wednesday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:01 AM 2 hours ago, MDSnow93 said: Jerry's on the ACE board! Let's see if he can get us at or above average Let's go Jerry! LET'S GET US TO KAREN!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 03:47 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:47 AM Really has to slow down to vertically align Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted Wednesday at 01:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:00 PM Hello, Jerry. Hello, Newman. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted Wednesday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:08 PM 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted Wednesday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:00 PM @Newman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Wednesday at 11:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:07 PM Welp this one will not over perform. Might still get a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted Wednesday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:45 PM Jerry, all alone in the Atlantic, appears to be the Master of his Domain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Hmmm, recon shows Jerry’s circulation might be opening up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Hmmm, recon shows Jerry’s circulation might be opening up Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jerry this morning, and the radar and flight-level wind data show that the storm remains lopsided with nearly all of the strong winds and convection on the system's east side. The center itself has been difficult to fix, but the data generally support a position that is located south-southeast of the previous track. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on a combination of the aircraft data and satellite estimates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 Satellite images, aircraft observations, and ASCAT data indicate that Jerry is a poorly organized and strongly sheared tropical storm. The low-level center is now fully exposed and elongated, with the main area of deep convection located on the system's south and southeast sides. The initial intensity is again held at 55 kt, but that could be a little generous. The center of Jerry is less than 100 miles from the northern Leeward Islands, which is often close enough to experience strong winds. However, the ASCAT and aircraft data showed that the strongest winds are confined to a region east of the center. In fact, winds are quite light on the west side. Jerry has been moving erratically today, but smoothing through the fixes suggest that the storm is gradually turning to the right. The initial motion is now estimated to be 300/16 kt. This general motion should continue through early Friday, taking the center of the system near or over the northern Leeward Islands during that time. However, as mentioned above, the strongest winds should pass to the east of the islands due to Jerry's asymmetric structure. A turn to the north is expected to occur by late tomorrow, and that motion should continue through most of the weekend as the storm moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant impacts appear unlikely there. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Strengthening in the short term seems unlikely given Jerry's poor initial structure. However, after the storm passes the northern Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear could decrease some while Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass. Therefore, slow strengthening is predicted from late Friday through Sunday. The opportunity for strengthening will likely end early next week when the system moves into stronger shear and over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward due to a combination of the storm's poor initial structure and latest guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.3N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 21.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 63.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 26.5N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 30.7N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 32.3N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 32.2N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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