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October 2025 Discussion and Obs


wdrag
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58 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Maybe he's just talking about the low tide smell of hydrogen sulfide gas

One of the main offenders causing that is excess nitrogen runoff into our waterways leading to the smelly algal blooms. Had that issue when I lived on the GSB. But natural marsh smells in a more pristine environment come with living near the shore. Most of the time it’s just in the background. More overpowering and persistent smells are usually a sign of pollution.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we get these really juicy long range Euro forecasts which end up verifying lower the closer in time we get. Eventually, one of these long range heavy rainfall forecasts will work out. But it’s already wavering for later in the month. Hard to get excited for anything beyond 120-168 hrs with so much high pressure dominating up in Canada.
 

New run more high pressure suppression

 

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Old run was much wetter

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In my opinion this above is misleading.  EPS and EPSAI for 10/28-31 are substantial... in addition the modeling shown here is Operational.  Operationals are not the most likely solution... one member of many.

The two event rainfall ending this morning compare to the ensembled EPS two day event as shown below.  Imperfect but reasonable.  That's a short 84 hour compare. I cant go back further on the EPS.  In this case,  the first event was less than modeled, the second more. 

Modeling tracking differences occur, but the forecaster community does not rely on operationals for overall decision making. 

I corrected the 10/18 12z EPS to extend to 12z/22. same idea. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Man you say some dumb shit. Some of your opinions and approaches need to be discussed somewhere else. Maybe it's time to take a break from this place. 

Agreed. He should really be 5 posted or have his nonsense moved to banter. He is ruining this board with his gibberish and I don’t know why the moderators continue to let him destroy this place 

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6 hours ago, wdrag said:

In my opinion this above is misleading.  EPS and EPSAI for 10/28-31 are substantial... in addition the modeling shown here is Operational.  Operationals are not the most likely solution... one member of many.

The two event rainfall ending this morning compare to the ensembled EPS two day event as shown below.  Imperfect but reasonable.  That's a short 84 hour compare. I cant go back further on the EPS.  In this case,  the first event was less than modeled, the second more. 

Modeling tracking differences occur, but the forecaster community does not rely on operationals for overall decision making. 

 

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I realize that. But some of the very wet posts showing up on social media were based on the wet OP Euro runs and not the ensembles. I posted the OP since it’s what has been getting the most attention.

There are a few issues with the ensembles also. First, they can smooth out important features which lead to lesser amounts like stronger high pressure to the north. On paper the late month period looks like events in the past which have produced decent rainfall events here. But as we have seen in recent times, as we approached the event time the rainfall amounts became lesser.

The Euro originally forecast the coastal event around the 13th to be further west with a more consolidated low pressure. There were several runs which had the heavier rains further west than they wound up. So it was more of a coastal event with a sharp rainfall cutoff and two weaker lows.

So now I don’t have any confidence yet in the wetter model runs for the last week of October. Since there may be more high pressure and 500 mb ridging pressing down from the north than the smoothed ensembles are showing. Would like to see wetter solutions hold to 120hrs and under to be more believable. 

The old saying is that the long range OP runs are just another ensemble member. I am hoping the end of the month period is close to some of the EPS forecasts. But will not have confidence in the details and if a sharp cutoff until under 120 hrs. 

We will need one of the wetter long range forecasts to verify in order to get the ball rolling on a reversal of the drought which began back in September 2024. Since most outcomes have been drier than the original day 6-10 forecasts over the last year. 

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Conversation on ensembles and rainfall brings me to this... 

Our reservoir levels, I think, are within tolerance, considering the drier 12 months period of I guess roughly 5-10" below normal. Yet NYC reservoir only 6% below normal. 

The ET and water balance maps are added here to show at least in my mind, where all the parameters are met for objective analysis (including solar radiation)... much less concern,  in my mind,  for drought up here.   Note the positive balance up here vs the drought in TEX. 

Spring summer are critical here... spring for the typical prescribed burn wildfires in s NJ,  and then growing season for farmers. Arguments for rainfall can be made for fall color as well as other concerns (bugs etc)

Anyway... if we go another 12 months significantly below normal rainfall...especially next spring-summer, then my concerns are heightened. 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 86 (1979)
NYC: 88 (1979)
LGA: 83 (1979)
JFK: 77 (1984)


Lows:

EWR: 30 (1940)
NYC: 30 (1940)
LGA: 33 (1940)
JFK: 37 (2003)

 

Historical:  

 

 

1884: A drought which began in August, extended through September and continued until the last week October brought hardship to Northern, Central, and Eastern Alabama. The 22nd was the first day of general showers, and gentle rains fell from the 26th to the 29th.

1965 - The temperature soared to 104 degrees at San Diego, CA. Southern California was in the midst of a late October heat wave that year. Los Angeles had ten consecutive days with afternoon highs reaching 100 degrees. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1969: The earliest and heaviest snow since October 1926 occurred in parts of northern New England. 12 inches fell at Rochester, NY, and in some mountain areas, more than a foot fell. There was limited skiing on some Vermont slopes on the 23rd. It set the October 24-hour record at Burlington, VT, with 5.1 inches, and the early season record at Portland, ME, with 3.6 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1985 - A guest on the top floor of a hotel in Seattle, WA, was seriously injured while talking on the phone when lightning struck. Several persons are killed each year when the electrical charge from a lightning bolt travels via telephone wiring. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Yakutat, AK, surpassed their previous all-time yearly precipitation total of 190 inches. Monthly records were set in June with 17 inches, in September with 70 inches, and in October with more than 40 inches. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) Twenty-two cities in the eastern U.S., most of them in the southeast states, reported record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 30 degrees at Athens GA, 28 degrees at Birmingham AL, and 23 degrees at Pinson AL, were the coldest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) Showers produced heavy rain in southern California, with amounts ranging up to five inches at Blue Jay. Flash flooding resulted in two deaths, ten injuries, and more than a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A "nor'easter" swept across the coast of New England. Winds gusted to 75 mph, and large waves and high tides caused extensive shoreline flooding. A heavy wet snow blanketed much of eastern New York State, with a foot of snow reported in Lewis County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A storm system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska brought rain to the Northern and Central Pacific Coast Region, with snow in some of the mountains of Oregon, and wind gusts to 60 mph along the Oregon coast. Six cities in Florida reported record low temp-eratures for the date, including Tallahassee with a reading of 34 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1996: Flooding from a major weekend storm continued to close schools and businesses in New England. Five people were killed during the storm, which dumped up to 19.19 inches of rain at Camp Ellis, ME to set the state's all time rainfall record. 140,000 people in Portland, ME were without water due to a water-main break. The town of Exeter, NH was also without water as the state experienced its worst flooding event since 1987. In New Jersey, the flooding was reported to be the worst since Tropical Storm Doria in 1971. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Wichita Kansas picked up 0.2 inch of snow for its earliest measurable snowfall on record. Snow also fell in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. As much as 8 inches fell at Boise City, Oklahoma, with 15 inches at the Cloudcroft Ski resort in the mountains of northern New Mexico. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

 

1997: Game 4 of the World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Florida Marlins was the coldest game in World Series history. The official game-time temperature was 38 degrees at Jacobs Field in Cleveland. Wind chills as low as 18 degrees was reported during the game.

 

1998: Tropical Depression Thirteen formed on October 22 over the southwestern the Caribbean Sea. By the 24th, this tropical depression became Hurricane Mitch. This hurricane would rapidly intensify over the next two days, reaching Category 5 strength on the 26th. Hurricane Mitch would end up being the second deadliest hurricane in the history of the Atlantic Ocean.


2005: Hurricane Wilma, with sustained winds near 130 mph crossed the Yucatan Peninsula near Playa del Carmen. The hurricane caused severe damage to the homes of nearly 700,000 people, leaving 300,000 homeless and at least 7 dead. Some remote locations across the Yucatan reported over 60 inches of rain. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)


2006: A “sleeper” wave hit CA’s Freshwater Lagoon Beach (near Orick). A 4-yr-old girl was swept to sea, as was a woman who tried to save her; both drowned. Several times a year “rogue” waves unexpectedly sweep people from beaches as they break on C/N CA beaches. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2007: A tropical air mass along the Atlantic Seaboard pushes the afternoon high temperatures 10 to 25 Fahrenheit degrees above the long-term average highs for the third week of October. Daily record high temperatures are tied or exceeded with 80°F readings at Montpelier, Vermont, and Millinocket, Maine. (Ref. WxDoctor)

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ECAI - 12z version continues as previously 10/29-30... almost 2" in NNJ.  LOOOOONG ways off and best to play it conservative.  12z once cycle trend on non event GFS/CMC is decidedly north!  One cycle D7-8-9. What it does do-lends more truth to the independent CPC perspective yesterday as well as EPS suites... even if those suites are 50% too wet. 

May? be starting a thread tomorrow afternoon for enough rain to raise Oct amounts to normal or above by 10/31 and a period of gusty e winds 45-55 MPH on the coasts.

Some sort of rain-wind event seems to be coming Oct 28-31.  

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18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I know we do lol.  Just not right up next to the road lol.

How come there's so many different terms used to describe the same thing 1) wetlands 2) marshes 3) swamps?

 

Marshes and swamps are both wetlands, but not all welands are marshes or swamps. Swamps always have standing or slow moving water, and have trees, other woody plants. Marshes have grasses, other similar plants, are not always wet (but can be), but get flooded, usually along coastal plains, or near a river that floods.

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

ECAI - 12z version continues as previously 10/29-30... almost 2" in NNJ.  LOOOOONG ways off and best to play it conservative.  12z once cycle trend on non event GFS/CMC is decidedly north!  One cycle D7-8-9. What it does do-lends more truth to the independent CPC perspective yesterday as well as EPS suites... even if those suites are 50% too wet. 

May? be starting a thread tomorrow afternoon for enough rain to raise Oct amounts to normal or above by 10/31 and a period of gusty e winds 45-55 MPH on the coasts.

Some sort of rain-wind event seems to be coming Oct 28-31.  

Getting interesting 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Getting interesting 

YES...  CPC this afternoon continues MDT RISK heavy rain our area. 

IF I had to make a decision at 5PM today, I would not thread.  Too much uncertainty on anything more than 1/4". Upper 5H low needs to form and capture the sfc low. northward along the coast......sometimes this occurs too late.   D7 WPC qpf this afternoon is a good start. 

The CPC 3PM/22 discussion below supports the attached graphic... MDT Risk in my opinion also implies a risk of a miss to the east.  The discussion below to the attached graphic. 

As the troughing moves further east, frontal activity and possible surface low pressure are predicted to bring increased precipitation chances to the East. The forecast is further complicated by the evolution of Tropical Storm Melissa, currently over the Caribbean. Individual ensemble members from the GEFS and ECENS vary greatly with Melissa, with a more west-based track currently more favored in the ECENS. Slower solutions are concerning given the possibility for more frontal interaction with the upstream trough. Today's ECENS and deterministic ECMWF solutions have trended more to the east compared to yesterday showing enhanced precipitation across the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. While the uncalibrated ECENS indicates at least a 40 percent chance of day 8-10 (Oct 30-Nov 1) precipitation totals exceeding 1-inch over these areas, the GEFS generally keeps chances closer to 20 percent. While uncertainty remains high in regards to the exact evolution, especially in regards to any tropical cyclone interaction, a moderate risk for heavy precipitation remains highlighted across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Oct 30-31 considering the timing includes Halloween and potential for adverse impacts to outdoor events. A slight risk of heavy precipitation continues through Nov 1, with the slight risk of high winds extending across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic through Nov 1.

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