October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under mostly sunny skies, much of the region saw temperatures reach or exceed 70° today. Highs included:

Atlantic City: 70°
Bridgeport: 70°
Islip: 70°
New Haven: 71°
New York City-Central Park: 70°
New York City-JFK Airport: 70°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 71°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 72°

A cold front will move across the region tonight into tomorrow morning. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into tomorrow. A period of severe weather is possible. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely.

Following the frontal and storm passage, temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward. Cool temperatures will likely persist through next weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +7.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.919 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

Last 70 for the season Don?

I think it's always highly suspect to predict the last 70 because it can be 70 in the middle of winter too, I remember we have hit 70 a few times in January including January 2006 here, 11 years to the day that we got the Blizzard of 1996 lol.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes 70 areawide including the south shore!

It was sunny pretty much all day right up until sunset here too!

TV Mets messed up the high again and said it was 69 lol

It’s unfortunate that they don’t verify their numbers before going on air. It is not a difficult task.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Last 70 for the season Don?

I think it's always highly suspect to predict the last 70 because it can be 70 in the middle of winter too, I remember we have hit 70 a few times in January including January 2006 here, 11 years to the day that we got the Blizzard of 1996 lol.

 

I don’t know. Probably for at least the next week or longer.

[steve392]

Anyone have peak wind gusts for today?  Winds have gotten very strong over the last 30 minutes. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:


TTN: 78
TEB: 77
New Brnswck: 77
PHL: 77
EWR: 73
ACY: 72
LGA: 71
BLM: 71
ISP: 70
JFK: 70
NYC: 70

[Stormlover74]

Wow getting crushed 

[the_other_guy]

Im impressed that its 68F at 430 am on 10/20…but I havent had coffee yet hahaha

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe even a Sandy type track? That pattern looks VERY familiar and the time of the month is right too.

 

That was a once in 700 year track. So most times systems develop to our south exit ENE. If the system is too far OTS, then we won’t even get much moisture. Ideally, you want it far enough west of Bermuda so when it recurves the system in the Great Lakes taps some tropical moisture.

Our main issue since September 2024 has been a lack of tropical moisture. Prior to this we had many tropical systems going into the Gulf or Southeast and weakening they tracked north. This is how we got so many deluges in recent years.

But now we get these weaker Northern Stream disturbances which can’t pick up much moisture. Canada has been in drought also. So this drought which began in September 2024 has continued.

It probably won’t end until someone in the area gets a 10.00” precipitation month followed by numerous above average precipitation months. This is how our past dry patterns have ended

Even last winter we got normal precipitation in December and February with a dry January. So with the exception of last May near MPO, all our months have been either just average or below average precipitation which perpetuated the drought. 

 

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Im impressed that its 68F at 430 am on 10/20…but I havent had coffee yet hahaha

We ran out of coffee this morning. Imagine my surprise at 5:30. Talk about spooky season. There will be a Costco run this evening to make sure this never happens again. Then stepping outside to a humid tropical feel was my true wake up this morning! 

[lee59]

I was expecting at least a quarter inch of rain and got nothing so far.

[bluewave]

Another case of the record heat missing to our north. So Massena was able to tie their October record of 4 days reaching 80° or higher. Their average max this month is +7.1° with the min at 0.0°. 

RECORD REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MASSENA NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT MASSENA NY
ON 10/19/25. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 
2007.


WEATHER RECORDS FOR MASSENA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KMSS) IN NY
DATE BACK TO 1949. 

&&

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

 

Time Series Summary for MASSENA INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct Number of 80° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	4	12
-	2023	4	0
3	2005	3	0

 

 

[qg_omega]

Another poor timing cold front limiting rain

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That was a once in 700 year track. So most times systems develop to our south exit ENE. If the system is too far OTS, then we won’t even get much moisture. Ideally, you want it far enough west of Bermuda so when it recurves the system in the Great Lakes taps some tropical moisture.

Our main issue since September 2024 has been a lack of tropical moisture. Prior to this we had many tropical systems going into the Gulf or Southeast and weakening they tracked north. This is how we got so many deluges in recent years.

But now we get these weaker Northern Stream disturbances which can’t pick up much moisture. Canada has been in drought also. So this drought which began in September 2024 has continued.

It probably won’t end until someone in the area gets a 10.00” precipitation month followed by numerous above average precipitation months. This is how our past dry patterns have ended

Even last winter we got normal precipitation in December and February with a dry January. So with the exception of last May near MPO, all our months have been either just average or below average precipitation which perpetuated the drought. 

 

I think we are evolving into an AMO- pattern so this is why we have had a drier pattern now, it's to balance out all the wet years we had in past years.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I was expecting at least a quarter inch of rain and got nothing so far.

I got a spike in allergies because of a sudden rise in winds this morning

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we are evolving into an AMO- pattern so this is why we have had a drier pattern now, it's to balance out all the wet years we had in past years.

 

I think the drought is more about what is happening in Canada than the Atlantic Ocean. We have been seeing these record ridges setting up across Canada leading to dry conditions working down to the south under the ridge. The Atlantic is currently near record warm levels just behind 2023 and 2024. 
 

[FPizz]

.10" 

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

.10" 

A trace here

The ground looked barely wet when I woke up but the rain gauge didn't register anything, neither did a couple others nearby. 

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

A trace here

The ground looked barely wet when I woke up but the rain gauge didn't register anything, neither did a couple others nearby. 

 

Big bag of bust but models were backing off bigly last evening.   .05 here

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the drought is more about what is happening in Canada than the Atlantic Ocean. We have been seeing these record ridges setting up across Canada leading to dry conditions working down to the south under the ridge. The Atlantic is currently near record warm levels just behind 2023 and 2024. 
 

I think we need to change the way we calculate these indices, if both the land and oceans are warming, a warm Atlantic doesn't mean the same thing as it did in the 80s.  Either way getting 10 inches of rain in a month was unsustainable and shouldn't happen here anyway-- we don't live in a tropical rain forest.  I think our rainfall is normalizing back around 40 inches of rain per year, which is where it should be.

 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we need to change the way we calculate these indices, if both the land and oceans are warming, a warm Atlantic doesn't mean the same thing as it did in the 80s.  Either way getting 10 inches of rain in a month was unsustainable and shouldn't happen here anyway-- we don't live in a tropical rain forest.  I think our rainfall is normalizing back around 40 inches of rain per year, which is where it should be.

 

If you get 40 inches now with temps 3 degrees warmer, it's not the same as getting 40 inches way back when it was cooler. 

[SACRUS]

 

58 / 52 after 0.18 in the bucket overnight storm narrow front with wind gusts to 38 MPH.  Some showers isolated may still reach some of the area as the upper low /  font pulls out.  Dry week overall near normal with Tue the warmest and this weekend looking dry and very nice. 

Midwest cutoff drifts east pumps a southerly flow in the 10/28 - 11/3 period could spell an unsetelled period.  Beyond there looking near normal overall.

 

[Picard]

0.10 as well.
Most of it was just remnant broken bands of showers as the southern edge rotated north.  A nothing burger for the longer term drought.

What did places like Buffalo and Toronto pick up?  Looked like solid rains out there for close to 24 hours.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (2021)
NYC: 80 (1969)
LGA: 80 (2021)
JFK: 81 (1969)


Lows:

EWR: 31 (1974)
NYC: 31 (1974)
LGA: 32 (1972)
JFK: 33 (1974)

Historical:

 

1770 - An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years. (David Ludlum)

1770: An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years.

1835: 6.0 inches of snow fell at Ft. Snelling, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1940: The earliest snow greater than one inch in Washington, DC, fell on October 20, 1940 with 1.4 inches and the second earliest greater than one inch was October 30, 1925 with 2.2 inches. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) (Ref. October Snows by Herb Close)

1952: Central Park in New York City had their earliest measurable snowfall with a half inch falling. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)
 

1983 - Remnants of Pacific Hurricane Tico caused extensive flooding in central and south central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City set daily rainfall records with 1.45 inch on the 19th, and 6.28 inches on the 20th. (17th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Cold arctic air invaded the Upper Midwest, and squalls in the Lake Superior snowbelt produced heavy snow in eastern Ashland County and northern Iron County of Wisconsin. Totals ranged up to 18 inches at Mellen. In the western U.S., the record high of 69 degrees at Seattle WA was their twenty-fifth of the year, their highest number of record highs for any given year. Bakersfield CA reported a record 146 days in a row with daily highs 80 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. In California, afternoon highs of 96 degrees at Redding and Red Bluff were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Forty-nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the south central and southeastern U.S. Lows of 32 degrees at Lake Charles LA and 42 degrees at Lakeland FL were records for October, and Little Rock AR reported their earliest freeze of record. Snow blanketed the higher elevations of Georgia and the Carolinas. Melbourne FL dipped to 47 degrees shortly before midnight to surpass the record low established that morning. Showers and thunderstorms brought heavy rain to parts of the northeastern U.S. Autumn leaves on the ground clogged drains and ditches causing flooding. Up to 4.10 inches of rain soaked southern Vermont in three days. Flood waters washed 600 feet of railroad track, resulting in a train derailment. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1994: 1994 The rampaging San Jacinto River (20 feet+ higher than normal) caused 8 pipelines carrying various petroleum products to rupture near Houston, TX; the river ignited in flame and smoke which shot 100s of feet into the air. More than 500 (mostly minor) burn/inhalation injuries. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1996: New Englandwas in the middle of a four day nor'easter which dumped tremendous rainfall totals, especially over eastern sections. 19.19 inches of rain fell at Camp Ellis, ME. 13.03 inches was recorded at Newburyport, MA. Portland, ME set a new all-time 24 hour rainfall record with 13.32 inches. Other rainfall totals included 17.21 inches at Sanford, ME, 12.23 inches at Portsmouth, NH, 11.21 inches at Bedford, MA, and 7.89 inches at Boston, MA. The storm tapped moisture from Hurricane Lili, far to the southeast over the Atlantic, which contributed to the excessive rainfall. The nor'easter also produced high winds along coastal sections. A wind gust to 81 mph was recorded at Little Compton, RI. One person was killed and total damage was over $50 million dollars.(Ref. Wilson Weather History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

[SACRUS]

 

SST Anomaly

 

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

I was expecting at least a quarter inch of rain and got nothing so far.

A sprinkler valve broke last night and I'm not handy with those, so rest assured that it will absolutely be the Atacama Desert around here until I'm able to get someone in to repair it.

[wdrag]

Overdone EC/EPS late last week for this morning in terms of SE BL inflow and associated rainfall...

Block continues into November, even in its weakened state in early Nov.  sometime between Oct 28-Nov 3 maybe something pretty strong?  No promises and not self evident in the ops. 

Am back from this past weekend near CMH with bumpy flight return last evening in OH/PA. Indian marriage celebration... pretty cool. 

[FPizz]

9 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

A sprinkler valve broke last night and I'm not handy with those, so rest assured that it will absolutely be the Atacama Desert around here until I'm able to get someone in to repair it.

Most systems get closed between now and like Nov 10th.  Get it fixed when it is getting closed for winter or in the Spring when opening.

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think the drought is more about what is happening in Canada than the Atlantic Ocean. We have been seeing these record ridges setting up across Canada leading to dry conditions working down to the south under the ridge. The Atlantic is currently near record warm levels just behind 2023 and 2024. 
 

Stuck patterns FTW.  You really can’t go wrong betting on continuity this decade if you’re a seasonal forecaster.

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we need to change the way we calculate these indices, if both the land and oceans are warming, a warm Atlantic doesn't mean the same thing as it did in the 80s.  Either way getting 10 inches of rain in a month was unsustainable and shouldn't happen here anyway-- we don't live in a tropical rain forest.  I think our rainfall is normalizing back around 40 inches of rain per year, which is where it should be.

 

We would get occasional months where some part of the area would get with 10” since 2003. The last month for us was August 2024 and at MPO May 2025.

Many spots have been well below 40” over the last 12 months. My area has only had around 32” in the last 12 months which is too dry in this much warmer climate. In the old days we could get away with some drier years since a cooler climate didn’t dry out so quickly during the warm season. 

Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain. So we can’t say based off one year that the wet pattern since 2003 has shifted. But the current dry pattern since September 2024 has been defined by storms underperforming model forecasts like we are seeing today. 

We will know that this drought is over when and if the storms start beating model expectations. It will probably lead to someone getting near or over 10” on the month and repeated very wet months. Since in the warmer climate we need something closer to 50” due to the much warmer summers drying things out very quickly. 

 

 

[FPizz]

43 minutes ago, Sundog said:

If you get 40 inches now with temps 3 degrees warmer, it's not the same as getting 40 inches way back when it was cooler. 

If I put 2 buckets outside, I think both would equal 40" for the year if it was 57 degrees outside or 54.