October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under mostly sunny skies, much of the region saw temperatures reach or exceed 70° today. Highs included:

Atlantic City: 70°
Bridgeport: 70°
Islip: 70°
New Haven: 71°
New York City-Central Park: 70°
New York City-JFK Airport: 70°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 71°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 72°

A cold front will move across the region tonight into tomorrow morning. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into tomorrow. A period of severe weather is possible. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely.

Following the frontal and storm passage, temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward. Cool temperatures will likely persist through next weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +7.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.919 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

Last 70 for the season Don?

I think it's always highly suspect to predict the last 70 because it can be 70 in the middle of winter too, I remember we have hit 70 a few times in January including January 2006 here, 11 years to the day that we got the Blizzard of 1996 lol.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes 70 areawide including the south shore!

It was sunny pretty much all day right up until sunset here too!

TV Mets messed up the high again and said it was 69 lol

It’s unfortunate that they don’t verify their numbers before going on air. It is not a difficult task.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Last 70 for the season Don?

I think it's always highly suspect to predict the last 70 because it can be 70 in the middle of winter too, I remember we have hit 70 a few times in January including January 2006 here, 11 years to the day that we got the Blizzard of 1996 lol.

 

I don’t know. Probably for at least the next week or longer.

[steve392]

Anyone have peak wind gusts for today?  Winds have gotten very strong over the last 30 minutes. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:


TTN: 78
TEB: 77
New Brnswck: 77
PHL: 77
EWR: 73
ACY: 72
LGA: 71
BLM: 71
ISP: 70
JFK: 70
NYC: 70

[Stormlover74]

Wow getting crushed 

[the_other_guy]

Im impressed that its 68F at 430 am on 10/20…but I havent had coffee yet hahaha

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe even a Sandy type track? That pattern looks VERY familiar and the time of the month is right too.

 

That was a once in 700 year track. So most times systems develop to our south exit ENE. If the system is too far OTS, then we won’t even get much moisture. Ideally, you want it far enough west of Bermuda so when it recurves the system in the Great Lakes taps some tropical moisture.

Our main issue since September 2024 has been a lack of tropical moisture. Prior to this we had many tropical systems going into the Gulf or Southeast and weakening they tracked north. This is how we got so many deluges in recent years.

But now we get these weaker Northern Stream disturbances which can’t pick up much moisture. Canada has been in drought also. So this drought which began in September 2024 has continued.

It probably won’t end until someone in the area gets a 10.00” precipitation month followed by numerous above average precipitation months. This is how our past dry patterns have ended

Even last winter we got normal precipitation in December and February with a dry January. So with the exception of last May near MPO, all our months have been either just average or below average precipitation which perpetuated the drought. 

 

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Im impressed that its 68F at 430 am on 10/20…but I havent had coffee yet hahaha

We ran out of coffee this morning. Imagine my surprise at 5:30. Talk about spooky season. There will be a Costco run this evening to make sure this never happens again. Then stepping outside to a humid tropical feel was my true wake up this morning! 

[lee59]

I was expecting at least a quarter inch of rain and got nothing so far.

[bluewave]

Another case of the record heat missing to our north. So Massena was able to tie their October record of 4 days reaching 80° or higher. Their average max this month is +7.1° with the min at 0.0°. 

RECORD REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MASSENA NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT MASSENA NY
ON 10/19/25. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 
2007.


WEATHER RECORDS FOR MASSENA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KMSS) IN NY
DATE BACK TO 1949. 

&&

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

 

Time Series Summary for MASSENA INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct Number of 80° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	4	12
-	2023	4	0
3	2005	3	0

 

 

[qg_omega]

Another poor timing cold front limiting rain

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That was a once in 700 year track. So most times systems develop to our south exit ENE. If the system is too far OTS, then we won’t even get much moisture. Ideally, you want it far enough west of Bermuda so when it recurves the system in the Great Lakes taps some tropical moisture.

Our main issue since September 2024 has been a lack of tropical moisture. Prior to this we had many tropical systems going into the Gulf or Southeast and weakening they tracked north. This is how we got so many deluges in recent years.

But now we get these weaker Northern Stream disturbances which can’t pick up much moisture. Canada has been in drought also. So this drought which began in September 2024 has continued.

It probably won’t end until someone in the area gets a 10.00” precipitation month followed by numerous above average precipitation months. This is how our past dry patterns have ended

Even last winter we got normal precipitation in December and February with a dry January. So with the exception of last May near MPO, all our months have been either just average or below average precipitation which perpetuated the drought. 

 

I think we are evolving into an AMO- pattern so this is why we have had a drier pattern now, it's to balance out all the wet years we had in past years.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I was expecting at least a quarter inch of rain and got nothing so far.

I got a spike in allergies because of a sudden rise in winds this morning

[LibertyBell]

Why do we have Daylight Savings Time all the way into early November? It makes zero sense right now, the sun rises well after 7 am and it's still dark here at 7:30.

 

DST year round doesn't make as much sense as Standard Time year round does.  The sun rising at 4 am in the summer is just fine, that's actually the best time to wake up in the summer.  Either that or leave your blinds/curtains down.

 

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we are evolving into an AMO- pattern so this is why we have had a drier pattern now, it's to balance out all the wet years we had in past years.

 

I think the drought is more about what is happening in Canada than the Atlantic Ocean. We have been seeing these record ridges setting up across Canada leading to dry conditions working down to the south under the ridge. The Atlantic is currently near record warm levels just behind 2023 and 2024.