October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[LibertyBell]

On 10/4/2025 at 11:13 AM, anthonymm said:

This 100%. Sustained temps above 85 are not normal outside of the core june-sept months and it's really bad to pretend they are.

we don't have sustained temperatures above 85 degrees.

it's just a few days

and not even 85,  more like 80

[LibertyBell]

On 10/4/2025 at 3:05 PM, bluewave said:

Highs easily beating guidance today especially with the very dry conditions.

Newark Liberty MOSUNNY   86  50  28 

we should have had more 100 degree temperatures during the summer than the 2 we got in June.

July should have hit 100+ a few times here too.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

1941 records seem intact today by a good 5 - 7 degrees.

1940s-1950s were extremely hot

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:
 

EWR: 87
TEB: 86
New Brnswck: 86
LGA: 83
ISP: 83
TTN: 83
BLM: 82
PHL: 82
NYC: 82
ACY: 81
JFK: 78

wow JFK temperatures are really off, we've been at least in the low 80s both days of the weekend.

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

With regards to this next weekend's storm, sure the 00Z 10/6 operational model runs seem to have come to a consensus of hooking the storm n-nw or north up the east coast. There is considerable blocking to the east of the storm making it hard for it to exit out to the east. And while the trough over the Northern Rockies may not be quite as amped as earlier, it still seems that it's a tight squeeze for the coast hugger being depicted. I need to see at least a couple of more days of consistency with this solution to be totally convinced. I'm still just a tiny bit skeptical.

WX/PT

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

With regards to this next weekend's storm, sure the 00Z 10/6 operational model runs seem to have come to a consensus of hooking the storm n-nw or north up the east coast. There is considerable blocking to the east of the storm making it hard for it to exit out to the east. And while the trough over the Northern Rockies may not be quite as amped as earlier, it still seems that it's a tight squeeze for the coast hugger being depicted. I need to see at least a couple of more days of consistency with this solution to be totally convinced. I'm still just a tiny bit skeptical.

WX/PT

Euro (0Z) has it again with it right on the coast Sunday morning. Aren’t hybrid nor’easters not an uncommon occurrence in late October/early Nov in that region? This would be a bit earlier than that:

[Wxoutlooksblog]

57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Euro (0Z) has it again with it right on the coast Sunday morning. Aren’t hybrid nor’easters not an uncommon occurrence in late October/early Nov in that region? This would be a bit earlier than that:

They're not uncommon but notice how much further south the storm is as it's wrapped around kind of a double barreled upper low over Ohio and North Carolina. That's what's drawing it in towards the coast. I think the hope here for me (traveling up the Hudson Valley on Sunday) is that this storm does a bit of a loop di loop and gets trapped under the pool of cool air down there maybe never making it all the way up the coast before it finally either fills in or turns east. And that's pretty much what happened at 192 hours. To bed I go.

WX/PT

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we should have had more 100 degree temperatures during the summer than the 2 we got in June.

July should have hit 100+ a few times here too.

 

It was a top 3 for 100° days for many locations.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1993	9	0
2	1949	8	0
3	2025	7	87
4	2022	6	0
-	1953	6	0
5	1988	5	0
-	1966	5	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	6	87
2	1999	5	4
3	2022	4	0
-	2010	4	30
-	2006	4	4
-	2005	4	9
4	2024	3	0
-	2012	3	21
-	2011	3	30
-	2001	3	7
5	2021	2	0
-	2019	2	0
-	2013	2	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2006	4	0
-	1955	4	0
2	1953	3	0
3	2025	2	87
-	2013	2	0
-	2010	2	0
-	2005	2	0
-	1999	2	0
-	1991	2	0
-	1966	2	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	3	0
-	1966	3	0
2	2025	2	87
-	2011	2	0
-	1993	2	0
-	1983	2	0
-	1948	2

 

Time Series Summary for CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	3	89
2	2011	2	0
-	2010	2	0
-	1999	2	151
3	2021	1	3
-	2019	1	2
-	2012	1	10
-	2005	1	1
-	2001	1	5

 

[MJO812]

6z gfs has the noreaster

[bluewave]

Much stronger blocking forecast now as we approach mid-October. So a cutoff near the mid Atlantic coastline is a plausible scenario. Would like to wait until it gets under 120 hrs to get interested in a soaking rain for at least parts of the area. 
 

New run

Old run

 

[Sundog]

A nice little soaker on all the models for the Tuesday event on 6z.

[Sundog]

45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z gfs has the noreaster

This would have been a sick snowstorm. 

The low eventually comes over us but only when it's already rotting and during most of the precip duration it's showing strong northerly to NE winds. 

[wdrag]

Back from a week in the PAC NW (SEA-SFO).  Seeing cyclic consistency in the EC-AI op strong nor'easter hit since 00z/5 (6 consecutive cycles). EPS EPS AI gaining confidence (50-60 MPH gusts potential coastal spots s LI and NJ, as well as 1-4" rain).  BUT as noted previously by others, a little early to be sure though WPC D7 QPF has accepted the likelihood of a significant storm.  BOM has not.  Also duration of event is in doubt from a decent 18 hr hit to a lengthy 60 hour event.  Too soon for a thread but many are monitoring. Have a day and will recheck tomorrow morning. 

[SACRUS]

 

58 / 57 warm - low level clouds/fog clearing and off to the races low 80s / mid 80s warmest spots.  Just around the same tomorrow before clods / front come through bringing some rain/showers.   Dries out and clear up for a nice / cooler, near normal Wed - Fri.  Cut off now shifting from the SOutheast to MidAtlantic on majority of forecasts this coming weekend and into next week, so a chance at a break in the consecutive dry/nice weekends and some meaningful rains in the 10/12-10/15 period.  Beyond there ridging pushes east and looks overall warmer through the 19.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 91 (1959)
NYC: 90 (1941)
LGA: 92 (1941)
JFK: 88 (1997)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (1965)
NYC: 36 (1881)
LGA: 40 (1965)
JFK: 36 (1965)

Historical:

 

1836 - A second early season snowstorm produced eleven inches at Wilkes Barre PA and 26 inches at Auburn NY. All the mountains in the northeastern U.S. were whitened with snow. (David Ludlum)

1941: The maximum temperature at Richmond International Airport was 99°F today the highest temperature ever recorded in Richmond in October. (Ref. Richmond International Airport - KRIC) A strong tornado hit the east side of Kansas City, MO. 4 people were killed, including 2 people in a house that was blown intact for 700 feet and then destroyed. 130 homes and buildings were destroyed. Damage totaled $250,000 dollars. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)


1952: Sleet fell at several locations, making it the earliest documented winter precipitation in Arkansas.

1956: Hurricane Flossie causes tide damage along the VA bay area. (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia)

1963: An unseasonable heat ridge extended from California to the central Plains, Great Lakes into the Northeast. Record highs for the month of October included: Waterloo, IA: 95°-Tied, Chicago, IL: 94°, Decorah, IA: 94°, Elkader, IA: 94°, Dodge, WI: 93°, La Crosse, WI: 93°-Tied, Fayette, IA: 91 °F. Other daily record included: Kansas City, MO: 95°, Des Moines, IA: 94°, Concordia, KS: 94°, Lincoln, NE: 93°, Omaha, NE: 93°, Moline, IL: 92°, South Bend, IN: 92°, Sioux City, IA: 91°, Columbia, MO: 91°-Tied, Madison, WI: 90°, Peoria, IL: 90°, Rockford, IL: 90°, Springfield, IL: 90 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1981: An airliner flew into a tornado which had just lifted off the ground near Moerdijk, Holland, causing one of the wings to fall off. The resulting crash killed all 17 people on board. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1984: The temperature at Honolulu, Hawaii, reached 94 degrees to establish an all-time record at that location. (The Weather Channel)

1985: A tropical wave, later to become Tropical Storm Isabel, struck Puerto Rico. (This name was retired after the Isabel of 2003 that hit North Carolina & Virginia) As much as 24 inches of rain fell in 24 hours, and the severe flooding and numerous landslides resulting from the rain claimed about 180 lives. (Storm Data)

1967: A Canadian weather record one-day rainfall of 19.3 inches falls at Brynnor Mines at Ucluelet.

1984 - The temperature at Honolulu, Hawaii, reached 94 degrees to establish an all-time record at that location. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - A tropical wave, later to become Tropical Storm Isabel, struck Puerto Rico. As much as 24 inches of rain fell in 24 hours, and the severe flooding and numerous landslides resulting from the rain claimed about 180 lives. (Storm Data)

1987 - The western U.S. continued to sizzle. Afternoon highs of 85 degrees at Astoria OR, 101 degrees at Tucson AZ, and 102 degrees at Sacramento CA, equalled October records. It marked the fourth time in the month that Sacramento tied their record for October. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Cool Canadian air prevailed across the central and eastern U.S. Toledo OH reported a record low of 27 degrees. Limestone ME received an inch of snow. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. Boise ID reported a record high of 87 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Temperatures soared into the 90s across southern Texas. Afternoon highs of 93 degrees at Houston, and 96 degrees at Austin and Corpus Christi, were records for the date. Beeville was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 101 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1994: Storms quickly became severe as they moved into western Iowa. Monona and Crawford Counties were especially hard hit. There were numerous reports of golf ball size hail and one storm produced baseball size hail over the Ute area of Monona County. Baseball size hail also fell a short time later east of Soldier. As the storms moved east, high winds were the major problem causing some roof damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1998: A tornado struck Ferris State University in Big Rapids, injuring seven students. Another tornado moved from northern Isabella County into southern Clare County, damaging several homes. Total damage with the storms was more than a million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2002: Late evening severe thunderstorm developed and affected the city of West Odessa in west Texas. This storm produced large hail to the size of golf balls. It also resulted in a damaging downburst, which destroyed a couple of mobile homes. Further north, severe thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail and damaging winds across portions of southwest and south central Oklahoma. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2013: US South Dakota Blizzard 100,000 Cattle Killed!! Most Costly in History KEVN TV in Rapid City S.D. headlined on October 7th, "Ranchers suffer serious losses in blizzard," and said that ranchers "found cattle huddled up along fence lines, along creek bottoms, and in road ditches, all dead. Silvia Christen with the South Dakota Stockgrowers Association says she has talked to ranchers who have lost 20% to 50% of their cattle." "'This is absolutely, totally devastating,' said Steve Schell, a 52-year-old rancher from Caputa. 'This is horrendous. I mean the death loss of these cows ... is unbelievable.' Schell said he estimated he had lost half of his herd, but it could be far more. He was still struggling to find snow-buried cattle and those that had been pushed miles by winds that gusted at 70 miles per hour on Friday night. (Early Blizzard in South Dakota)

 

2010: A significant severe weather event struck northern Arizona with at least eight confirmed tornadoes. This event will go down in history as the most tornadoes to hit Arizona in a single day. An EF2 tornado was on the ground for 34 miles, ranking as the longest-tracked tornado in Arizona history.

2016: Around a half dozen tornadoes struck Kansas, including an EF-2 and EF-3 in Saline County.
 

2016: The center of Category 4 Hurricane Matthew passed within 100 miles of Miami, Florida.

[SACRUS]

 

61 / 60

 

last of the fog burning into C/S NJ Pienbarrens

 

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

This would have been a sick snowstorm. 

The low eventually comes over us but only when it's already rotting and during most of the precip duration it's showing strong northerly to NE winds. 

20 years ago it would have been a snowstorm but not in 2025..

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

20 years ago it would have been a snowstorm but not in 2025..

 I disagree that it would have been a snowstorm 20 years ago. It could easily have been several degrees cooler but not nearly cold enough for a snowstorm imho.

[psv88]

57 this morning. Another beautiful day on tap

[Stormlover74]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I disagree that it would have been a snowstorm 20 years ago. It could easily have been several degrees cooler but not nearly cold enough for a snowstorm imho.

I think but i'm not sure that he meant if this storm happened in the colder months. We're not getting a snowstorm in mid October 

[NEG NAO]

9 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

With regards to this next weekend's storm, sure the 00Z 10/6 operational model runs seem to have come to a consensus of hooking the storm n-nw or north up the east coast. There is considerable blocking to the east of the storm making it hard for it to exit out to the east. And while the trough over the Northern Rockies may not be quite as amped as earlier, it still seems that it's a tight squeeze for the coast hugger being depicted. I need to see at least a couple of more days of consistency with this solution to be totally convinced. I'm still just a tiny bit skeptical.

WX/PT

waiting for the first model to jump ship with a miss or a light to moderate event here............very difficult to break a long dry spell especially in such a dramatic way....

[anthonymm]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we don't have sustained temperatures above 85 degrees.

it's just a few days

and not even 85,  more like 80

WE dont but have you looked at the midwest!

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

waiting for the first model to jump ship with a miss or a light to moderate event here............very difficult to break a long dry spell especially in such a dramatic way....

But that's typically how we do break a dry spell. Last year we had that storm just before Thanksgiving after getting little no rain for like 40 days and then it turned wetter through December 

[anthonymm]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

60s are way too cold

 

omg bro move to FL

[NorthShoreWx]

14 hours ago, psv88 said:

Lots of PWS in the 85-87 range around town. Real scorcher today. 

Got to 87° here yesterday.  Hovered between 85 and 87 for a solid 90 minutes before falling off starting around 3 pm.  It was down to 70 by sunset.

Up to 75 now after overnight low of 57.

[Sundog]

51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think but i'm not sure that he meant if this storm happened in the colder months. We're not getting a snowstorm in mid October 

Obviously I meant if this was occurring in January or thereabouts. 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Obviously I meant if this was occurring in January or thereabouts. 

The polar jet/cold air source is way north in Canada and this low would entirely be a product of the subtropical jet. It would be cold rain or a mix like what we had in 97-98 or 23-24. But that’s if it even develops. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

12 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Obviously I meant if this was occurring in January or thereabouts. 

You'd need a very cold air mass to get locked in to our n/nw and those kinds of air masses have been rare in recent years. 

WX/PT

[forkyfork]

remember when october 2007 felt shocking

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

omg bro move to FL

humidity is awful and so are the flooding rains there.

cold is good when it snows, it's not needed in October