October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[anthonymm]

19 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I guess since it is not 90 we can't call it summer-like. Really worries me how we normalize the disappearance of our cold seasons. It is honestly why I cherish every single snow day. They are becoming so few and far between. 

This 100%. Sustained temps above 85 are not normal outside of the core june-sept months and it's really bad to pretend they are.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

This 100%. Sustained temps above 85 are not normal outside of the core june-sept months and it's really bad to pretend they are.

This is far more impressive than those August 91 degree "heat waves"

[anthonymm]

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

k

I usually support the idea of warmth overperforming but eps has been terrible at seeing cooldowns the last few months. I seriously doubt the midwest stays that warm for so long.

[SACRUS]

 

76 / 55 gorgeous day.

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

76 / 55 gorgeous day.

Totally making up from the March through June rains on weekends we had.  

[nycwinter]

28 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I usually support the idea of warmth overperforming but eps has been terrible at seeing cooldowns the last few months. I seriously doubt the midwest stays that warm for so long.

warmth is relative to normal  those mid october temps in midwest are 70's for highs..

[forkyfork]

37 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I usually support the idea of warmth overperforming but eps has been terrible at seeing cooldowns the last few months. I seriously doubt the midwest stays that warm for so long.

it's because the cooler shots are narrow and get smoothed out by timing differences in the ensemble 

[Stormlover74]

91 in msp today. Has to be close to an all time October high

[Sundog]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's because the cooler shots are narrow and get smoothed out by timing differences in the ensemble 

All of them always?

[SnoSki14]

20 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I guess since it is not 90 we can't call it summer-like. Really worries me how we normalize the disappearance of our cold seasons. It is honestly why I cherish every single snow day. They are becoming so few and far between. 

Humans normalizing CC is exactly why we're all screwed. We're not far away from catastrophic events affecting our region whether it be extreme drought, hurricanes, California style fires, grid destroying heat in the summer and so forth. 

It's not that it's 80+ in October but rather how consistently warm it is. 

[Dark Star]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Humans normalizing CC is exactly why we're all screwed. We're not far away from catastrophic events affecting our region whether it be extreme drought, hurricanes, California style fires, grid destroying heat in the summer and so forth. 

It's not that it's 80+ in October but rather how consistently warm it is. 

Droughts come and go.  Climate modeling has many different scenarios.  What scares me are "activists" making sure forest fires increase...

[bluewave]

The magnitude and the duration of the warm ups are usually more impressive than the cool downs even using the warmer climate normals.

 

 

 

 

 

[Picard]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Humans normalizing CC is exactly why we're all screwed. We're not far away from catastrophic events affecting our region whether it be extreme drought, hurricanes, California style fires, grid destroying heat in the summer and so forth. 

It's not that it's 80+ in October but rather how consistently warm it is. 

That's interesting.  I have always believed it would be hundreds of years (150+) before things went catastrophic.  I can question my own beliefs sometimes, and the fall heat is one of those times and the now more consistent dryness too.  One thing is certain, whatever type of weather it is, things are running in more extremes, which is costing money, and putting more lives at risk.  

The sad thing is, I don't know what can realistically be done quickly about this issue, but I'll save that for another forum.  

[donsutherland1]

57 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

91 in msp today. Has to be close to an all time October high

92 is its October monthly record.

[donsutherland1]

Islip has reached 83°. That ties the daily record set in 2023.

[SACRUS]

84 / 54 

[Sundog]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Humans normalizing CC is exactly why we're all screwed. We're not far away from catastrophic events affecting our region whether it be extreme drought, hurricanes, California style fires, grid destroying heat in the summer and so forth. 

It's not that it's 80+ in October but rather how consistently warm it is. 

I hate CC as much as the next guy but like 80% of wildfires are caused by stupid people or substandard maintenance of power lines passing through wooded areas. 

[bluewave]

Highs easily beating guidance today especially with the very dry conditions.

Newark Liberty MOSUNNY   86  50  28 

[psv88]

84 at home. Perfect on the water. Flat water, light winds and clear skies. 

[winterwarlock]

86 after a low of 42...can he go higher

Tomorrow  we certainly will

[winterwarlock]

How is the temperature in Bemar?

 

Asking for a friend

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

How is the temperature in Bemar?

 

Asking for a friend

Gotta be 72

[Sundog]

Just now, psv88 said:

Gotta be 72

What's funny is the NWS is saying tomorrow's high is 74. 

No chance in hell

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I hate CC as much as the next guy but like 80% of wildfires are caused by stupid people or substandard maintenance of power lines passing through wooded areas. 

well you aren't going to get rid of stupid people...as we used to say in the mental health field, people have a right to be stupid.....so with that out of the way, what other steps should be taken.....

[weatherpruf]

29 minutes ago, psv88 said:

84 at home. Perfect on the water. Flat water, light winds and clear skies. 

should have been out there yesterday...got our butts kicked most of the day on winds that were clearly more than forecast. never let up. we could not fish effectively in the wind and anchoring did not help. we're not making that run again, and are heading down the jersey shore next trip for sea bass, which you can keep at a reasonable size there.

[winterwarlock]

31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Gotta be 72

In the shade

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, much of the region saw temperatures soar into the 80s. Areas immediately on the coastline were a bit cooler. Preliminary highs included:

Hartford: 80°
Islip: 83° (tied record set in 2023)
New York City-Central Park: 82°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 83°
Newark: 87°
Poughkeepsie: 82°
White Plains: 82°

Tomorrow will be another very warm day. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few of the warmest spots will reach the middle and perhaps upper 80s.

The warm weather will continue through early next week. Another strong cold front will likely cross the region around midweek. The frontal passage will likely bring some showers or thundershowers. A shot of much cooler air will follow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +4.64 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.096 today. 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

How is the temperature in Bemar?

 

Asking for a friend

From BLM:

[FPizz]

@winterwx21 hope youre ok

[psv88]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

should have been out there yesterday...got our butts kicked most of the day on winds that were clearly more than forecast. never let up. we could not fish effectively in the wind and anchoring did not help. we're not making that run again, and are heading down the jersey shore next trip for sea bass, which you can keep at a reasonable size there.

Yea east wind on the sound and you’re toast. I tried fishing off of eatons neck two weeks ago and we had 3-4 footers at short intervals. We fished in the harbor instead.