Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Aleet

Aween

[moneypitmike]

5 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

0z Canadian is a hit

Nothing more exciting than a Day 10 CMC. 

[dendrite]

Yeah a d10 CMC snowicane. What could go wrong?

[jbenedet]

Warm/wet

cool/dry

Familiar….

[jbenedet]

Lawns and shrubs looking best they have all year. 

Another recurring theme…will see this through thanksgiving.

[mreaves]

11 hours ago, mreaves said:

I ended up with .97”. 

I did not end here.  Another batch came in and I ended up with 1.52".  

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, tunafish said:

Easy to see how - as others have said - Freshwater flooding is going to be the most impactful (costliest, deadliest) weather event related aspect of AGW.  Probably already is.

tru ...

but I was being sarcastic over what that would look like if the lost generational 'normal' alpine october temperatures were in play.  hint hint, 50" of snow

which i'm not even sure the back whence october 20 is too early even then.  but then it wouldn't be as funny.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Still not much reason for me to post.

Back to Outlook....see ya in two weeks.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still not much reason for me to post.

Back to Outlook....see ya in two weeks.

Will there be all winter?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will there be all winter?

Hard to say SOP....tough call-

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will there be all winter?

I mean if we can’t get Will out of retirement to post about the blizzicane then what the hell is there worth posting for?

[Typhoon Tip]

cut off d-drip and withdraw syndrome kickin in

[CoastalWx]

I may have to lock in the Canadian just because. I'm so sick of the boredom.

[CoastalWx]

Some areas in western and northern New England will get a decent drink again tonight. Stein slowly releasing his webbed hands from Dendrite's crotch.

[powderfreak]

Not every day a passenger jet smokes a weather balloon…

https://onemileatatime.com/news/united-boeing-737-hit-weather-balloon-cracking-windshield-bruising-pilot/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR5AqWqARKi7Vtyd8XP1QnL6YIpIPy3yxK1sQL2Bkk4Q9Dm78GXKB2kgWqDzGw_aem_nQyt_Obm5uU4t4q4YpI1cg

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not every day a passenger jet smokes a weather balloon…

https://onemileatatime.com/news/united-boeing-737-hit-weather-balloon-cracking-windshield-bruising-pilot/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR5AqWqARKi7Vtyd8XP1QnL6YIpIPy3yxK1sQL2Bkk4Q9Dm78GXKB2kgWqDzGw_aem_nQyt_Obm5uU4t4q4YpI1cg

That’s pretty wild 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wish the Euro/ EPS had something 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not every day a passenger jet smokes a weather balloon…

https://onemileatatime.com/news/united-boeing-737-hit-weather-balloon-cracking-windshield-bruising-pilot/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR5AqWqARKi7Vtyd8XP1QnL6YIpIPy3yxK1sQL2Bkk4Q9Dm78GXKB2kgWqDzGw_aem_nQyt_Obm5uU4t4q4YpI1cg

The old weather balloon excuse, right out of the Roswell playbook...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I may have to lock in the Canadian just because. I'm so sick of the boredom.

Looks like boredom until the Christmas week screaming Sou'Easter

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The old weather balloon excuse, right out of the Roswell playbook...

Chemtrail right through the windshield

[CoastalWx]

I know of WindBorne. When I heard about what they do, this thought went through my mind. That’s wild. 

[CoastalWx]

Where's the blocking? Hudson bay to Quebec ridging on EPS then moves to a more +NAO. Pacific gets a little better...might allow a decent cold shot early November.

[Typhoon Tip]

just the NAM so tfwiw but these grid numbers over Logan imply/look modestly impressive for a convection swath tomorrow afternoon...probably E

 

30020663908 -2599 032218 49170901

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Where's the blocking? Hudson bay to Quebec ridging on EPS then moves to a more +NAO. Pacific gets a little better...might allow a decent cold shot early November.

500 mb means from all three are vestigial with +anomalies over eastern Canada/D Straight extending out to the temporal horizon  ... meanwhile, the CPC numerical telecon (  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png ) is pretty depressed with the index.

I'm sorta curious if we see some 'emergence' in the guidance ...where there's some non-linear forcing that they don't respond to until closer in time.  And then you get more digging into the M/A.

I noticed that is actually tending to happen in the ensemble means for the D8-11 range, with a coastal signal in there time range.   Whether or not there's a TC involved in all that is just adding some d-drip value...   

It's not winter yet but hang in there my fellow addicts ... there's can be interesting aspects to pay attention to.  haha

[kdxken]

Stunningly blue skies...again. 

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

Coc.

[Typhoon Tip]

Here's what I was more than less describing to Scott awhile ago ...this is the 12z GEFs mean for D9ish.  This is a rather deep upper M/A 500 mb anomaly for D9 and it's trending.  It's getting hard to imagine this failing to detonate a coastal response

This is only October 20s ... if we continue with the type of loading pattern toward mid Novie, the idea of the front heavy winter is showing up in guidance - in fact, you can argue that is the case already ... but we're just seasonally too warm inside a winter scaffold/hemisphere.   

That's a modest  +PNA/-NAO(western limb) tandem

[dendrite]

CMC blizzicane update for those tracking

[Damage In Tolland]

When I need weenies doesn’t post .. we all know the model result 

[moneypitmike]

5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Not every day a passenger jet smokes a weather balloon…

https://onemileatatime.com/news/united-boeing-737-hit-weather-balloon-cracking-windshield-bruising-pilot/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR5AqWqARKi7Vtyd8XP1QnL6YIpIPy3yxK1sQL2Bkk4Q9Dm78GXKB2kgWqDzGw_aem_nQyt_Obm5uU4t4q4YpI1cg

That's what led to the CMC D10 depiction.