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Invest 94L—80% 2 day and 90% seven day odds of development


WxWatcher007
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17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

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 Thanks for posting.

 This NY Post headline is so misleading. If the Fujiwhara Effect is strong enough, that would actually be the best way for the SE to avoid a landfall. Thus, I hope Fujiwhara is strong. The stronger combined storm on those models/ensemble members doing that avoids the US in the vast majority of cases.
 
The NY Post is not a good source for news, regardless. It borders on tabloid.

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15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for posting.

 This NY Post headline is so misleading. If the Fujiwhara Effect is strong enough, that would actually be the best way for the SE to avoid a landfall. Thus, I hope Fujiwhara is strong. The stronger combined storm on those models/ensemble members doing that avoids the US in the vast majority of cases.
 
The NY Post is not a good source for news, regardless. It borders on tabloid.

Borders? It is tabloid. They thrive on page Six stuff.

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Local western NC talk here: a lot to track and a lot to determine, but if the circulation meanders into SC, it’s another terrible scenario for an area still reeling from Helene. Easterly, upslope flow and a steady fetch of moisture from the Atlantic…not good. We’ve luckily had very dry antecedent conditions but that can change rapidly with plenty of convective activity expected ahead of the circulation. 

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15 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

94L isn't going to do anything until whatever circulation that is there, clears Hispaniola.

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 The best bet for the SE to avoid a hit and the potential flooding catastrophe would be if 94L were to move away from there more slowly than the model consensus and let Humberto get to a higher latitude than it. Also, the same would probably be the case if Humberto were to move more quickly. Then hopefully Humberto would pull 94L away.

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17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The best bet for the SE to avoid a hit and the potential flooding catastrophe would be if 94L were to move away from there more slowly than the model consensus and let Humberto get to a higher latitude than it. Also, the same would probably be the case if Humberto were to move more quickly.

The other would be a Fujiwara effect to pull an Imelda away from the coast.

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19 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

The other would be a Fujiwara effect to pull an Imelda away from the coast.

That’s what I meant when I mentioned those scenarios. It appears the best chance for a Fujiwara to do that is for Humberto to be at a higher latitude than 94L. This is based on viewing 100s of ensemble members from different runs along with operationals.

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Per WxBell (may be different from others like TT): 

-Of the 18Z 30 GEFS/50 EPS members, I count ~25% that bring a lowest SLP of <1000 mb onto the E coast, but I see no lowest SLP <990 mb on the GEFS on land.

-There do appear to be 7 EPS members that are hurricanes/<990 mb hitting.

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I think it’s still worth plenty of caution to look too much into intensity guidance given the lack of a center. We do know there will be a favorable environment window early, followed by likely hostile conditions. But how much that impacts Imelda will depend on how structurally sound any inner core is. 

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10 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It's noting now but could be huge.  I remember Charlie in 2004 was nothing and came out of nowhere and was a small 155 MPH hurricane at landfall. 

 The chances of this being a cat 4 H are very low as of now even with favorable MJO phase 2 being forecasted. The bigger risk as it appears now is the catastrophic flooding risk from a very slow moving storm, even if it were to landfall as just a TS. TS Chantal caused major flooding from record 24 hour rainfall in parts of NC.

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35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The chances of this being a cat 4 H are very low as of now even with favorable MJO phase 2 being forecasted. The bigger risk as it appears now is the catastrophic flooding risk from a very slow moving storm, even if it were to landfall as just a TS. TS Chantal caused major flooding from record 24 hour rainfall in parts of NC.

Speculative at this point but I think anything from a TS to C3 are possible. I agree with the odds of a 4 being very low. I've said this elsewhere but we have to remember that major hurricane strikes along the east coast are actually pretty rare. Since 1990 there have only been three. Andrew '92, Fran '96, and Jeanne '04. Here, there's a window where this will likely intensify, but near the coast future Imelda may have to deal with the effects of southerly shear and dry air being imparted into the circulation. Along with cooler temperatures near the coast. 

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That said, the Euro has intensification near landfall, probably because there should be a strong outflow channel to the north. 

Right now there is a robust mid-level circulation apparent on satellite. We really need to see how that translates as it reaches the high SST/OHC environment near the Bahamas tomorrow. 

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Given its current appearance and how Humberto was able to more quickly develop and intensify in its environment, I do think it's on the board that this has an impressive appearance tomorrow if shear relents some. 

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