2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[JoshM]

Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

00z looks much improved! 

Very much so, good wedging and a hell of a sleet storm for most of NC and SC 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

Just now, JoshM said:

Very much so, good wedging and a hell of a sleet storm for most of NC and SC 

I think the CAD will trend stronger the closer we get. 

[Als23]

The infamous warm nose. An adage as old as time here in Maggie Valley. 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

Just now, Als23 said:

The infamous warm nose. An adage as old as time here in Maggie Valley. 

Yea still a lot of mixing but improved overall. Especially out west. 

[ncjoaquin]

The GFS did not get the message that our winter storm is gone. 

Some mix in here, but still...

[Met1985]

Well its the Euro vs the GFS. hard to go against the euro though.  It would be a shame if we wasted all this cold air and a cold ground.  Both yesterday and this morning's lows were 13 degrees so far. 

[Met1985]

Down to 11 degrees now.

[Elev3999]

Crazy Haywood microclimate. 27 here.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Currently 20 at the house and heavy frost. GSP stated in the morning AFD that Winter Storm Watch is coming later today. The WPC in their morning discussions suggested that there is still a great deal of uncertainty with too much run to run inconsistencies and and too much uncertainty in the Northern stream energy. They stated that the North trend is noted, but they're no buying yet.

[Hvward]

Looks to me like a large difference between the two models is the tongue of moisture out ahead of the front that the GFS develops. It’s not really fighting the warm nose. Euro does not have that precip beginning Saturday AM. Still looks like a big mess right now, hopefully the low will trend a bit weaker and we can stay snow for a bit. I do believe most will start as snow, just a matter of how quickly precip arrives and how strong the low gets.

[Buckethead]

23 at my house at 4360. 9 at 2400 in the Cane River Valley just below me.

Can anyone confirm if the recon data is being ingested into the models yet?

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

[WxKnurd]

28 minutes ago, Elev3999 said:

Crazy Haywood microclimate. 27 here.

He’s always colder than my property and my house isn’t that far as the crow flies ha!

[ncjoaquin]

21 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

23 at my house at 4360. 9 at 2400 in the Cane River Valley just below me.

Can anyone confirm if the recon data is being ingested into the models yet?

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk
 

I have read that it is ingested, but that it would take a couple cycles to show up in the model result. 

Down to 11.8 this morning!

 

[BretWx]

Ah, yes. The classic panic swings. We've been here before and we will again. It's what makes if fun no matter what! 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

The WPC discussion is interesting:

”Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon, especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage”

Are they insinuating that the energy currently in Canada doesn’t reflect model data up to this point and should correct? 

[BretWx]

Woke up to 12 degrees at the house. 

[franklin NCwx]

Had a low of 12

[Maggie Valley Steve]

54 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

23 at my house at 4360. 9 at 2400 in the Cane River Valley just below me.

Can anyone confirm if the recon data is being ingested into the models yet?

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk
 

So I got some clarity from Jeremy DeHart on Twitter. Jeremy is an AF Reserve Meteorologist for the Hurricane Hunter missions for many years now. He stated that last night mission was a reposition flight back to Keesler. The mission today will sample the Baja low with additional missions sampling the Gulf tomorrow.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, Elev3999 said:

Crazy Haywood microclimate. 27 here.

You in Maggie?

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

So I got some clarity from Jeremy DeHart on Twitter. Jeremy is an AF Reserve Meteorologist for the Hurricane Hunter missions for many years now. He stated that last night mission was a reposition flight back to Keesler. The mission today will sample the Baja low with additional missions sampling the Gulf tomorrow.

Ah ok. So the crazy jump from the Euro is that it's being unstable with the storm coming up. That definitely doesn't look well for that model in my opinion.  Thanks Steve.

[ncjoaquin]

8 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

So I got some clarity from Jeremy DeHart on Twitter. Jeremy is an AF Reserve Meteorologist for the Hurricane Hunter missions for many years now. He stated that last night mission was a reposition flight back to Keesler. The mission today will sample the Baja low with additional missions sampling the Gulf tomorrow.

Excellent insight!!! Much better than the 3rd hand info that I had.

Thank you for posting that!!! I hope the flights produce positive model results. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

My hunch is that the GFS is handling the very cold and dense Arctic front better this time. I'm also watching Texas carefully as well. It appears the freezing temperatures will make it to the Coast on Friday evening/early Saturday morning creating and icy mess across Metro Houston and possibly Galveston. So today into tomorrow should provide a bit more clarity and then we can start exploring p-types and amounts.

[buckeyefan1]

1 hour ago, msuwx said:

Some fairly substantial differences with the western vorts/ interactions at the 500mb level on the 6z Euro vs. the previous couple of runs. Lots of options still on the table. 

Just gonna drop this in here as well