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2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread


Buckethead
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Currently 20 at the house and heavy frost. GSP stated in the morning AFD that Winter Storm Watch is coming later today. The WPC in their morning discussions suggested that there is still a great deal of uncertainty with too much run to run inconsistencies and and too much uncertainty in the Northern stream energy. They stated that the North trend is noted, but they're no buying yet.

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Looks to me like a large difference between the two models is the tongue of moisture out ahead of the front that the GFS develops. It’s not really fighting the warm nose. Euro does not have that precip beginning Saturday AM. Still looks like a big mess right now, hopefully the low will trend a bit weaker and we can stay snow for a bit. I do believe most will start as snow, just a matter of how quickly precip arrives and how strong the low gets.

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21 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

23 at my house at 4360. 9 at 2400 in the Cane River Valley just below me.

Can anyone confirm if the recon data is being ingested into the models yet?

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk
 

I have read that it is ingested, but that it would take a couple cycles to show up in the model result. 

Down to 11.8 this morning!

 

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The WPC discussion is interesting:

”Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon, especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage”

Are they insinuating that the energy currently in Canada doesn’t reflect model data up to this point and should correct? 

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