E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion

[JTA66]

Saw a flash and heard thunder a moment later.

[Kevin Reilly]

33 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Saw a flash and heard thunder a moment later.

Yep, periods of rain here with thunder and loud thunder 56f humidity 98%  

 

Looks like fairly strong thunderstorms in Delaware Bay in a line moving into south Jersey. 

[Maxwell03]

Gnarly storms for this time of year. Jumped at a couple of these sudden bolts. 

[Albedoman]

finally,some rain to keep the leaf piles from blowing away tomorrow.

[KamuSnow]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Yeah this is decent. More thunder and now steady rain...

Looking like an overperformer here, up to 0.75" of rain!

[pl0k00n111]

Loud storm. Kept me up. Tired this morning. Odd to see thunder storms in November. 

[Mikeymac5306]

I enjoyed hearing the thunder and seeing a few flashes of lightning last night since it is most likely the last we will see for a while. 

[Birds~69]

14 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

I enjoyed hearing the thunder and seeing a few flashes of lightning last night since it is most likely the last we will see for a while. 

We had a massive lightning show and thunder last New Year's Eve. Plenty of time...

[ChescoWx]

Most of the area received some beneficial rains with between 0.30" and 0.50" falling since last night. Here in East Nantmeal we have already recorded our high for today at midnight at 53.1 degrees. Temperatures have fallen off to the low 40's across the area and will only rise a degree or two this morning before we see temperatures slowly fall this afternoon. We should reach the 30's by late afternoon and fall below freezing early this evening. Tomorrow will be the coldest day with highs not too far from 40 degrees. We should see well below normal temperatures continuing for the rest of the week with highs mainly in the upper 40's to low 50's.

[Mikeymac5306]

4 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

We had a massive lightning show and thunder last New Year's Eve. Plenty of time...

True. Forgot about that as I was half drunk at a bar in West Chester. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[ChescoWx]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Nice write up!! Thank you!!

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

True. Forgot about that as I was half drunk at a bar in West Chester. 

Weren't we all?

But yeah that was something else for New Year's Eve. Mother nature supply their own fireworks.....

[RedSky]

Man that winter outlook is grim. A cold March with below normal snow lol

 

[ChescoWx]

My early winter take for Chester County is a cold start to December. Slightly below normal December and near to below temperature January with near to above normal February. Well above normal March temperatures.

Snowfall not too far from average seasonal snowfall. 1 storm over 12" and 2 over 6"

Chester County - higher elevations 40" of snow. Valley locations 35" of snow.

 

[The Iceman]

I think it'll be similar to last winter... no big events, we nickle and dime to 10-15". I don't like that all these coastal's this fall have mostly been messes, nothing really organized because of how fast the flow is. I think we'll get cold, especially early, but seasons where we are banking on a stellar first half just almost always disappoint. All the forecasts of february being a torch are a downer considering that's our snowiest climo month. Plus in the last decade we've had good track storms early in the season, it just hasn't been cold enough. I like that the blocking signal is there late month and looks to hold strong. If we can score a 6+" in December then nickle and dime the rest of the season, I'll be happy. The pattern this fall hasn't screamed MECS to me at least imo 

[Birds~69]

Last year of the Farmers Almanac. We have to go out with a bang. I don't care if its a blizzard, ice storm or whatever. Need something memorable...not nickel and dime crap.

The end of an era.

After 208 years, the Farmers’ Almanac has officially published its final edition.

For generations, farmers, gardeners, old-timers, and “I can tell a storm’s coming by my knee” folks have used it to predict the weather, planting seasons, fishing days, and just about everything in between.

Their 2026 edition is already out — and it will be the last one ever.

Even their online access is shutting down next month due to rising costs and the mess of today’s media world.

Whether you trusted it… or just argued with it… it’s hard to deny it was a piece of American tradition.

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

On 11/6/2025 at 7:52 PM, JTA66 said:

I don’t recall at exactly what point, but eventually they closed all roads. Unless you were a first responder, it was illegal to drive.

Just for $hits & giggles I call my company’s snow line Monday morning (yes, pre-internet days). The message basically said, “The office is open and although the roads are closed, associates are expected to make every effort to come in”. 
 

yeah, right…FU! I went back to bed.

If you are talking about the Jan. 7 - 8, 1996 storm, they definitely declared a state of emergency and actually threatened to fine anyone (like $400 or something) who went out in it.  But people still did and I know that there was at least one car stuck and completely buried in the middle of the street that ran alongside my apartment building.  It was there for almost 2 weeks!  Philly schools were pretty much closed the entire week as was the federal government (we had a LAN and I had a dial-up connection to the office to check email, etc).   I never bought my "french toast" supplies (bread and milk) beforehand like true Philly snow wienies do, so there I was the day after (my birthday), hoofing it with my little shopping cart, to the supermarket that was 2 blocks down the street (walking in the middle of what was somewhat "plowed" (in quotes) of the street), to get some bread and milk.   The supermarket did open (am guessing the clerks lived nearby).  My car was strategically parked in the lot SW side of my building, where with all that snow, I expected to have to spend forever shoveling, but was spared.  There was literally almost nothing on my car (the building blocked the snow blowing in from the NE).  I just needed a snow brush and was done.  The snow was really powdery (it was ~23F during much of the storm so had to have easily been 15:1 - 20:1 ratios.  The cars elsewhere in the lot were buried in several foot drifts!

 

20 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Distant rolling thunder...

I had one LOUD and LONG rumbling thunder about 9:45 pm last night and then maybe 20 minutes later, I heard a softer, more distant thunder.

I actually picked up 0.25" on Sat., 0.55" overnight, and a couple scattered showers this morning gave me 0.06", for a 3-day total of 0.86", which was not bad.

Made it up to 64 yesterday after a low of 46 but had my "high" today of 55 just after midnight, and it has been downhill ever since.  It stayed mostly in the mid-40s during the day and the sun did pop out briefly once the last of the rain was done, but the bottom is starting to fall out now, with the CAA and even with the active breeze.

It's currently 39 with dp 31, so the cold front is definitely sending that dry air in.

[ChescoWx]

first flakes of the season in NW Chesco 

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

Last year of the Farmers Almanac. We have to go out with a bang. I don't care if its a blizzard, ice storm or whatever. Need something memorable...not nickel and dime crap.

The end of an era.

After 208 years, the Farmers’ Almanac has officially published its final edition.

For generations, farmers, gardeners, old-timers, and “I can tell a storm’s coming by my knee” folks have used it to predict the weather, planting seasons, fishing days, and just about everything in between.

Their 2026 edition is already out — and it will be the last one ever.

Even their online access is shutting down next month due to rising costs and the mess of today’s media world.

Whether you trusted it… or just argued with it… it’s hard to deny it was a piece of American tradition.

 

I saw that.  I actually "plant by the moon" from that.   The other (older) one - the "Old Farmer's Almanac" is still going though, although that one is really oriented towards farming vs this one that had more general gardening stuff.  Am hoping that maybe someone will swoop in and buy them up.

[Birds~69]

3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

If you are talking about the Jan. 7 - 8, 1996 storm, they definitely declared a state of emergency and actually threatened to fine anyone (like $400 or something) who went out in it.  But people still did and I know that there was at least one car stuck and completely buried in the middle of the street that ran alongside my apartment building.  It was there for almost 2 weeks!  Philly schools were pretty much closed the entire week as was the federal government (we had a LAN and I had a dial-up connection to the office to check email, etc).   I never bought my "french toast" supplies (bread and milk) beforehand like true Philly snow wienies do, so there I was the day after (my birthday), hoofing it with my little shopping cart, to the supermarket that was 2 blocks down the street (walking in the middle of what was somewhat "plowed" (in quotes) of the street), to get some bread and milk.   The supermarket did open (am guessing the clerks lived nearby).  My car was strategically parked in the lot SW side of my building, where with all that snow, I expected to have to spend forever shoveling, but was spared.  There was literally almost nothing on my car (the building blocked the snow blowing in from the NE).  I just needed a snow brush and was done.  The snow was really powdery (it was ~23F during much of the storm so had to have easily been 15:1 - 20:1 ratios.  The cars elsewhere in the lot were buried in several foot drifts!

 

I had one LOUD and LONG rumbling thunder about 9:45 pm last night and then maybe 20 minutes later, I heard a softer, more distant thunder.

I actually picked up 0.25" on Sat., 0.55" overnight, and a couple scattered showers this morning gave me 0.06", for a 3-day total of 0.86", which was not bad.

Made it up to 64 yesterday after a low of 46 but had my "high" today of 55 just after midnight, and it has been downhill ever since.  It stayed mostly in the mid-40s during the day and the sun did pop out briefly once the last of the rain was done, but the bottom is starting to fall out now, with the CAA and even with the active breeze.

It's currently 39 with dp 31, so the cold front is definitely sending that dry air in.

Definitely going to be crisp night. Helps with breathing going out for a quick walk clears my congestion. Being inside I'm a mucus factory...

[Hurricane Agnes]

4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Definitely going to be crisp night. Helps with breathing going out for a quick walk clears my congestion. Being inside I'm a mucus factory...

I *still* haven't turned my heat on yet but it's coming. And I know once I do, I have to start up the humidifier routine.   With the central air heat, the humidity can drop down below 20% in here (triggering the static and nosebleeds)!  I can usually get my humidifiers to take me to ~35%, which is fine. 40% and over gets to be too damp.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, RedSky said:

Man that winter outlook is grim. A cold March with below normal snow lol

 

Wooly caterpillars agree. Dozens around...short black head, long brown body, short black tail end. Cold start, seasonal/avg middle with a 'thaw', and cold tail end. If you believe that sort of thing. Would fit Nina climo as well. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I think it'll be similar to last winter... no big events, we nickle and dime to 10-15". I don't like that all these coastal's this fall have mostly been messes, nothing really organized because of how fast the flow is. I think we'll get cold, especially early, but seasons where we are banking on a stellar first half just almost always disappoint. All the forecasts of february being a torch are a downer considering that's our snowiest climo month. Plus in the last decade we've had good track storms early in the season, it just hasn't been cold enough. I like that the blocking signal is there late month and looks to hold strong. If we can score a 6+" in December then nickle and dime the rest of the season, I'll be happy. The pattern this fall hasn't screamed MECS to me at least imo 

Pretty much agree with this. I'm not thinking any 'big' storms either unless we luck our way into something. You can already make out what this pattern may look like in general....screaming northern jet, shred factory to anything that tries to come North via the stj, sloppy or late phasing with systems scooting out to our South or blowing up too late favoring S and E in those particular situations.

My general thoughts are coldish/unsettled early part of the season thru the 3rd week of Dec, generally seasonal to AN most of the heart of winter with some short-lived bitter cold shots (single digits/teen highs)....in and out sorta thing.

If we can time some convoluted blocking we could get something significant (8"+) but thats a roll of the dice and the exception, not the rule. Nickel and diming our way to ~18-20" here in my area. Then a cold and unsettled last 1/3 of Feb into early March. 

 

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Last year of the Farmers Almanac. We have to go out with a bang. I don't care if its a blizzard, ice storm or whatever. Need something memorable...not nickel and dime crap.

The end of an era.

After 208 years, the Farmers’ Almanac has officially published its final edition.

For generations, farmers, gardeners, old-timers, and “I can tell a storm’s coming by my knee” folks have used it to predict the weather, planting seasons, fishing days, and just about everything in between.

Their 2026 edition is already out — and it will be the last one ever.

Even their online access is shutting down next month due to rising costs and the mess of today’s media world.

Whether you trusted it… or just argued with it… it’s hard to deny it was a piece of American tradition.

 

Never cared for that one its Old Farmers for me

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Never cared for that one its Old Farmers for me

[JTA66]

We need the return of the elusive Miller A if we want to bigly bust out of this snow drought. But since we’re heading into Nina winter, it probably won’t be this year.