September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[FPizz]

Light rain, .02" haha

[winterwarlock]

81/67/82

 

 

[psv88]

81. .03

[SnoSki14]

What a blowtorch. We cool off maybe 1-2 days next week and then 80s well into October. Probably another top 3-5 warmest month likely 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, FPizz said:

Light rain, .02" haha

While in theory rain sounded like a good idea, in reality when you get light rain like this at night it really sucks.

It just makes the air more uncomfortable and much more humid and I've been up all night with a stuffy nose and sneezing.  I'm about to turn on my air conditioning.  A dry cool night with temperatures in the 50s is FAR superior to this.

I hope the next time it rains it's when we get a noreaster.  Either that or a strong frontal passage with cool dry weather behind it.  Not this nonsense of a nonstorm.  This is nothing but a godawful humidity pump.

 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What a blowtorch. We cool off maybe 1-2 days next week and then 80s well into October. Probably another top 3-5 warmest month likely 

I don't think it's going to be that extreme.  Temperatures in the 70s are fine. There is no hot air around to make it that hot.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Not quite 2017 but this will be a top five September for increase in mean temperature from 1st half to 2nd half ... I know we had some posts about this back before the increase began, and seems to me only two or three increased more than this one will. 

The odd thing is, 2017 was among the warmest Octobers, but so was 1947 which followed the exact opposite sequence of largest decrease from Sep 1-15 to Sep 16-30. 

1891 was another September with a large increase from first half to second half. I don't think 2025 can catch it for second place but it may finish third (for increase, not for average). 

I thought we weren't going to use 1891 because of its very limited dataset? The limited data at EWR in 1891 makes September look erroneously warm and makes October look erroneously cool lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

81/67/82

 

 

This is probably why I'm so uncomfortable tonight, this socalled storm is nothing more than a humidity pump that triggered my allergies.

[steve392]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

This is probably why I'm so uncomfortable tonight, this socalled storm is nothing more than a humidity pump that triggered my allergies.

Mid 60's leaving my house but it felt like a brick wall i was walking through with the humidity.  Disgusting out and sun isn't even up yet.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Not quite 2017 but this will be a top five September for increase in mean temperature from 1st half to 2nd half ... I know we had some posts about this back before the increase began, and seems to me only two or three increased more than this one will. 

This was the point that I made back in late August. Anytime we have had a cooldown like in August from June and July, the rebound warmer from the cooldown is of a greater magnitude than the cooldown was.

Several areas had top 10 warmth from June into July. But the August average temperatures did reach top 10 coolest. Now much of the area will finish September in the top 10 or top 20 warmest. The long range models underestimated this warm up.

But understanding this temperature pattern over the last decade can see where the model bias lies and forecast accordingly. The warm spots reached 90° earlier in the month and several stations had record highs and low maxes over the last 10 days. 

[Sundog]

I got almost as much rain from a system models were giving me ZERO precip as I did a few days ago when they were showing 1 to 2 inches.

0.13 last night compared to 0.19 a few days ago. 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't think it's going to be that extreme.  Temperatures in the 70s are fine. There is no hot air around to make it that hot.

There's a big ridge in the east. There's near 90F temps well into Canada forecast 

[STORMANLI]

0.07"

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought we weren't going to use 1891 because of its very limited dataset? The limited data at EWR in 1891 makes September look erroneously warm and makes October look erroneously cool lol.

 

The 1891 data is largely missing for Newark not NYC.

September 1–15, 1891: 70.1°

September 16–30, 1891: 74.0°

October 1891: 54.9°

 

[winterwarlock]

My station has reported rain 6 days in a row

 

Total: .42

[uofmiami]

0.19” in Syosset & 0.14” in Muttontown.

[lee59]

.12 here. This has been some stretch of non eventful weather.

[donsutherland1]

Despite the wet start during the first week of September, consistent with most cases where there was no rainfall during the last 10 days of August, September 2025 will wind up drier than normal in New York City.

[FPizz]

.05"

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

What a blowtorch. We cool off maybe 1-2 days next week and then 80s well into October. Probably another top 3-5 warmest month likely 

Average high temp for central park for oct will likely be in the mid 70s. It will be like a typical September temperature wise.

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was the point that I made back in late August. Anytime we have had a cooldown like in August from June and July, the rebound warmer from the cooldown is of a greater magnitude than the cooldown was.

Several areas had top 10 warmth from June into July. But the August average temperatures did reach top 10 coolest. Now much of the area will finish September in the top 10 or top 20 warmest. The long range models underestimated this warm up.

But understanding this temperature pattern over the last decade can see where the model bias lies and forecast accordingly. The warm spots reached 90° earlier in the month and several stations had record highs and low maxes over the last 10 days. 

Yep we always pay heavily for those rare cooldowns. It's so biased towards warmth now its not even funny.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Average high temp for central park for oct will likely be in the mid 70s. It will be like a typical September temperature wise.

Were that to happen, that would set a new record. The record is 72.5° in 1947.

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Were that to happen, that would set a new record. The record is 72.5° in 1947.

It's trivial for us to break high temp records now, as long as they're taken over a long enough period.

[Sundog]

22 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Average high temp for central park for oct will likely be in the mid 70s. It will be like a typical September temperature wise.

Dude you need to chill, do you realize what you're typing?

Mid 70s for the whole month of October? So a +10 monthly anomaly for highs huh?

And you're basing this on what exactly?

 

[anthonymm]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Dude you need to chill, do you realize what you're typing?

Mid 70s for the whole month of October? So a +10 monthly anomaly for highs huh?

And you're basing this on what exactly?

 

Uh .. this can happen nowadays. Look at Jan 2023, it was a +10 anomaly the whole month. Plus it's not even that unprecedented. 1947 had an average high of 72.5, which means we can easily beat that now. Also to get an average high temp of 75 you don't need mid 70s every day.

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

Uh .. this can happen nowadays. Look at Jan 2023, it was a +10 anomaly the whole month. Plus it's not even that unprecedented. 1947 had an average high of 72.5, which means we can easily beat that now. Also to get an average high temp of 75 you don't need mid 70s every day.

You can't compare extremes that occur in winter to Fall. There's a reason there's no +10 month in summer for example. 

Going another +2.5 over the warmest October monthly average maximum is a big deal. 

October 1947 btw finished +5.7. 

[SACRUS]

 

71 / 65 clearig out after 0.19 in the bucker mostly overnight.   Low - mid 80s today, Upper 70s / low 80s tomorrow and Tuesday - clouds could keep it lower Tue.   Humberto and Imelda tango exit stage with most of the rain chances for the next week.  2 days of a cooler ENE/NE flow 10/2-10/3 - ridge anchoreed intot he northeast and its overall warm beyond there.  

9/28 - 10/1:   Warm - to much warmer than normal
10/2 - 10/3 :  Cooler onshore ENE/NE flow
10/4 - beyond ;  Warmer / much warmer than normal  (more 80s 10/6-10/7)

 

[Sundog]

Everything was blindingly bright  this morning being wet from the rain I wasn't supposed to get and the Sun shining brightly with totally clear skies. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

High:

EWR: 87 (2014)
NYC: 88 (1881)
LGA: 84 (2014)
JFK: 82 (1948)

Lows:

 

EWR: 38 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1947)
LGA: 42 (1947)
JFK: 44 (1989)

Historical: 

 

1836 - The first of three early season snows brought four inches of snow to Hamilton, NY, and two inches to Ashby MA. (David Ludlum)

1837: The first recorded storm to rake the entire Texas coast was Racer’s Storm, named for a British sloop of war which encountered the system in the extreme northwestern Caribbean on September 28th. It is remembered as one of the most destructive storms of the nineteenth century due to its extreme duration and 2000 mile path of destruction.

1874 - A strong category 1 hurricane went by Charleston and Georgetown, South Carolina. The tide was unprecedented height, inundating the entire riverfront of the city of Charleston.

1893 - Albuquerque, NM, was soaked with 2.25 inches of rain, enough to establish a 24 hour record for that city. (The Weather Channel)

1917 - A hurricane hit Pensacola, FL. Winds gusted to 95 mph, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.50 inches. Winds at Mobile AL gusted to 75 mph. (The Weather Channel)

1929 - A hurricane-spawned tornado hit Fort Lauderdale, Florida. While the path length of this estimated F2 tornado was 0.8 miles, it caused 16 injuries.

1947: Boston, Massachusetts recorded its highest September pressure of 30.66 inches of mercury. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1974: Belleville Ill.--Lightning killed a man who was playing football in a park. Orlando, Fla.--A 20-year-old Naval Training Center student was killed while jogging. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1984: Coolest September day ever recorded in Washington, DC. The maximum was 51 °F and the minimum was 47°F.
(Ref. Washington Weather Records) Richmond, Virginia had a high temperature for the day of 52 °F making it the coolest September day on record (records since 1897). (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)

1986: Flash flooding swept a car off the Kamehameha Highway on Oahu, Hawaii, and into a swollen stream. The driver held onto some branches until help arrived, but the current did strip him of his clothes and watch! (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)


1987 - Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in southern Kansas and north central Oklahoma overnight. The Chikaskia River rose 2.5 feet above flood stage at Blackwell OK during the day causing flooding in Kay and Grant counties of north central Oklahoma. Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas produced 3.07 inches of rain in six hours at McAllen. Thunderstorms produced up to six inches of rain in southeastern Texas later in the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front in the central U.S. produced severe weather from northern Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Nolan TX, and wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at Lawrence KS. Thunderstorms drenched downtown Kansas City MO with up to four inches of rain, leaving some cars stranded in water six feet deep. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms over northeastern Florida drenched Jacksonville with 4.28 inches of rain between midnight and 6 AM EDT. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Five cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 30 degrees. Morning lows were in the 20s in northern New England. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S., with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and 80s. In Oregon, Astoria reported a record high of 83 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1998: On the morning of September 28th, Hurricane George made landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi with maximum winds of 110 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb, making it a Category 2 hurricane. After landfall, Georges moved very slowly across southern Mississippi and weakened to a tropical depression by the morning of the 29th when the center was about 30 miles north-northeast of Mobile, Alabama. The storm dissipated near the northeast Florida/southeast Georgia coast by the morning of October 1, 1998. 

[forkyfork]

can we end the month with an 8 day streak of 80s?