September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[winterwx21]

84 degrees here right now. Mid 80s again tomorrow, and I think we'll see mid 80s again on Tuesday. Still some nice warm summery days ahead. 

[Stormlover74]

33 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

84 degrees here right now. Mid 80s again tomorrow, and I think we'll see mid 80s again on Tuesday. Still some nice warm summery days ahead. 

And even this weekend will be at or just below average. 

[psv88]

83

[uofmiami]

81.3 in Muttontown & 81.1 in Syosset for the high.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 90 (1992)
NYC: 91 (1891)
LGA: 89 (1965)
JFK: 90 (1965)


Lows:

EWR: 42 (1937)
NYC: 44 (1990)
LGA: 49 (1990)
JFK: 46 (1961)


Historical:

1752: The hurricane of 1752 was one of the most devastating in the history of Charleston, SC. Although the number of fatalities could not be determined, a contemporary Boston press report, based on a ship officer's account, estimated that 95 people drowned. The destruction of trees was severe. One plantation owner's loss was assessed at $50,000.  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1816: A tropical storm affected Virginia before moving northeast into New York. Heavy rains caused the James river in Richmond to rise only an inch or two lower than the High Fresh of 1814. Flood waters invaded the first floors of area homes. One bridge was submerged, cutting off travel (Chapman). (Ref. for Tropical Storm of 1816)

1886: A tornado moved along the Des Plaines River in northeast Illinois, hitting the city of Joliet. The tornado destroyed 20 homes, 10 barns, two factories, and a grain elevator; a bridge was moved intact for two blocks. 20 people were injured, but the loud roar of the approaching tornado allowed residents time to take shelter, so no one was killed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1926 - The great ""Miami Hurricane"" produced winds reaching 138 mph which drove ocean waters into the Biscayne Bay drowning 135 persons. The eye of the hurricane passed over Miami, at which time the barometric pressure reached 27.61 inches. Tides up to twelve feet high accompanied the hurricane, which claimed a total of 372 lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1933: The September 17th and 18th storm gave 13.27 inches of rain at Provincetown, MA causing severe flooding! (Ref. Notable New England Hurricanes)

1936: A passing hurricane did heavy damage in Salisbury Maryland and gave 4.61 inches of rain in Washington, DC and Baltimore received only a trace of rain. 1936 Hurricane Track - Weather Underground

1941: A remarkable aurora borealis or "northern lights" was observed as far south as north Florida on this night and the 19th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1971: A brush fire at Lake Alexander, MN in Morrison County started a 10-foot wide, 50-foot high "fire whirl." It moved out over the lake, overturned a 1,800 pound pontoon boat, and then dissipated as it moved back to shore. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1950: Hail covered the ground to a depth of 2 inches at Phoenix, AZ. Damage was extensive at the airport, where 22 planes were destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1978: Parts of the northern Rockies received some early season snow. 21 inches of snow fell at Red Lodge, MT reported 21 inches. Lesser amounts fell at lower elevations. Joliet, MT received 1.5 inches and Billings, MT received a trace. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in northern Texas produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Sulphur Springs, and 2.50 inches of rain in one hour at Commerce, which caused widespread street flooding. Bonham TX received 4.50 inches of rain which also resulted in widespread street flooding as Pig Branch overflowed its banks. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A strong cold front produced severe thunderstorms in the north central U.S. High winds behind the cold front gusted to 92 mph at Fort Collins CO, and up to a foot of snow blanketed the mountains of Montana, with seven inches reported at Great Falls. High winds in Colorado caused three million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit Puerto Rico, producing wind gusts to 92 mph at San Juan, and wind gusts to 120 mph at Roosevelt Roads. Hugo produced a storm surge of four to six feet, and northeastern sections of the island were deluged with more than ten inches of rain. Hugo claimed the lives of a dozen persons in Puerto Rico, and caused a bilion dollars damage, including 100 million dollars damage to crops. Thunderstorms representing what remained of Hurricane Octave continued to bring heavy rain to the valleys of northern California. Heavier 24 hour rainfall totals included 3.15 inches at Redding, and 2.66 inches at Red Bluff. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: 2.4 inches of snow fell at Duluth, MN to set not only a new record daily snowfall but also a new record total for September. The previous record snowfall for September was 1.5 inches set back in 1908.  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2003: Hurricane Isabel made landfall along the Outer Banks of North Carolina with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph and a minimum central pressure of 956 millibars or 28.23 inches of mercury. The greatest impacts were felt in North Carolina and Virginia. Hurricane Isabel gave Annandale - Barcroft Hills Weather Center a 41 mph wind gust today at 1603 which was the highest wind ever recorded for September at this station. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. Temperatures will top out in the lower 80s. The warmer spots could see some middle and perhaps upper 80s. Cooler air will return for the weekend with another warmup possible starting early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +4.40 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.972 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.3° (0.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[jm1220]

11 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Yeah we're easily in the lowest multiyear snow drought. The scary thing is I think the pattern is set. NYC will likely have a mean around 15" for good now. 

We have 10 more years I think until we can say this with confidence. We had a bonanza period that lasted about 18 years with a few duds thrown in. We were due for a sharp reversion to the mean-there's no way NYC can get away with regular 40" snow winters. So if this new regime started in 2018, that would be 2036 when we have an equally long timeframe as the snowier one.  Also the background warming means marginal snow situations 30 years ago would be rain now-so the bad years are even worse. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

TEB: 87
EWR: 87
New Brnswck: 85
LGA: 85
PHL: 84
TTN: 84
ISP: 83
BLM: 83
NYC: 83
ACY: 80
JFK: 79
 

[bluewave]

Record heat to our west yesterday with temperatures only missing 90° by 1°. This is why I have been discussing the potential for 85°-90°heat since late August even when models weren’t showing it. Models often underestimate the heat potential during flash droughts.
 

443 
CDUS41 KCTP 190624
CLIIPT

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2025

...................................

...THE WILLIAMSPORT PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 18 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1895 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         89R   351 PM  88    1964  75     14       78       

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We have 10 more years I think until we can say this with confidence. We had a bonanza period that lasted about 18 years with a few duds thrown in. We were due for a sharp reversion to the mean-there's no way NYC can get away with regular 40" snow winters. So if this new regime started in 2018, that would be 2036 when we have an equally long timeframe as the snowier one.  Also the background warming means marginal snow situations 30 years ago would be rain now-so the bad years are even worse. 

But there was a time when NYC regularly got 40 inch snowfall winters, look at the period from the 1860s through the 1920s

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 90 (1992)
NYC: 91 (1891)
LGA: 89 (1965)
JFK: 90 (1965)


Lows:

EWR: 42 (1937)
NYC: 44 (1990)
LGA: 49 (1990)
JFK: 46 (1961)


Historical:

1752: The hurricane of 1752 was one of the most devastating in the history of Charleston, SC. Although the number of fatalities could not be determined, a contemporary Boston press report, based on a ship officer's account, estimated that 95 people drowned. The destruction of trees was severe. One plantation owner's loss was assessed at $50,000.  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1816: A tropical storm affected Virginia before moving northeast into New York. Heavy rains caused the James river in Richmond to rise only an inch or two lower than the High Fresh of 1814. Flood waters invaded the first floors of area homes. One bridge was submerged, cutting off travel (Chapman). (Ref. for Tropical Storm of 1816)

1886: A tornado moved along the Des Plaines River in northeast Illinois, hitting the city of Joliet. The tornado destroyed 20 homes, 10 barns, two factories, and a grain elevator; a bridge was moved intact for two blocks. 20 people were injured, but the loud roar of the approaching tornado allowed residents time to take shelter, so no one was killed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1926 - The great ""Miami Hurricane"" produced winds reaching 138 mph which drove ocean waters into the Biscayne Bay drowning 135 persons. The eye of the hurricane passed over Miami, at which time the barometric pressure reached 27.61 inches. Tides up to twelve feet high accompanied the hurricane, which claimed a total of 372 lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1933: The September 17th and 18th storm gave 13.27 inches of rain at Provincetown, MA causing severe flooding! (Ref. Notable New England Hurricanes)

1936: A passing hurricane did heavy damage in Salisbury Maryland and gave 4.61 inches of rain in Washington, DC and Baltimore received only a trace of rain. 1936 Hurricane Track - Weather Underground

1941: A remarkable aurora borealis or "northern lights" was observed as far south as north Florida on this night and the 19th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1971: A brush fire at Lake Alexander, MN in Morrison County started a 10-foot wide, 50-foot high "fire whirl." It moved out over the lake, overturned a 1,800 pound pontoon boat, and then dissipated as it moved back to shore. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1950: Hail covered the ground to a depth of 2 inches at Phoenix, AZ. Damage was extensive at the airport, where 22 planes were destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1978: Parts of the northern Rockies received some early season snow. 21 inches of snow fell at Red Lodge, MT reported 21 inches. Lesser amounts fell at lower elevations. Joliet, MT received 1.5 inches and Billings, MT received a trace. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in northern Texas produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Sulphur Springs, and 2.50 inches of rain in one hour at Commerce, which caused widespread street flooding. Bonham TX received 4.50 inches of rain which also resulted in widespread street flooding as Pig Branch overflowed its banks. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A strong cold front produced severe thunderstorms in the north central U.S. High winds behind the cold front gusted to 92 mph at Fort Collins CO, and up to a foot of snow blanketed the mountains of Montana, with seven inches reported at Great Falls. High winds in Colorado caused three million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit Puerto Rico, producing wind gusts to 92 mph at San Juan, and wind gusts to 120 mph at Roosevelt Roads. Hugo produced a storm surge of four to six feet, and northeastern sections of the island were deluged with more than ten inches of rain. Hugo claimed the lives of a dozen persons in Puerto Rico, and caused a bilion dollars damage, including 100 million dollars damage to crops. Thunderstorms representing what remained of Hurricane Octave continued to bring heavy rain to the valleys of northern California. Heavier 24 hour rainfall totals included 3.15 inches at Redding, and 2.66 inches at Red Bluff. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: 2.4 inches of snow fell at Duluth, MN to set not only a new record daily snowfall but also a new record total for September. The previous record snowfall for September was 1.5 inches set back in 1908.  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2003: Hurricane Isabel made landfall along the Outer Banks of North Carolina with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph and a minimum central pressure of 956 millibars or 28.23 inches of mercury. The greatest impacts were felt in North Carolina and Virginia. Hurricane Isabel gave Annandale - Barcroft Hills Weather Center a 41 mph wind gust today at 1603 which was the highest wind ever recorded for September at this station. 

1941: A remarkable aurora borealis or "northern lights" was observed as far south as north Florida on this night and the 19th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

wild, that must have been like the solar maximum we had in 2024.  The aurorae must have been easily visible in 1941 just like they were last year here.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:
 

TEB: 87
EWR: 87
New Brnswck: 85
LGA: 85
PHL: 84
TTN: 84
ISP: 83
BLM: 83
NYC: 83
ACY: 80
JFK: 79
 

it was 81 here yesterday

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

0.13" rainfall from yesterday's event.

2.68" total so far for September.

It's been a month since we used a/c, although September has been nice but not really that chilly.  Lowest temp has been 51° on 9/9.  We've had one day with maxT in the 60's (65 on 9/7).  August had 1 such day (68° on 8/20), July had none (closest was 79° on the 10th and 27th), and June had 5.

The last sub-50° day was 49° on June 3 (following 47° on June 2).

Max Temperatures have been more impressive, although this year's "heat waves" (subjectively) didn't seem to last long.  Hottest days were:

      June 24 - 101° (100.8°, hottest June day I have seen)

      July 29 - 98°

      June 25 - 97°

      July 30 - 96°

      July 25 - 95°

August touched 90 only once (90.0° on 8/11.  8/13 came close at 89.6°).  If you want to call 8/13 90° and add a day to the total, I won't argue.

We've had 16 90° days this year:

      May - 0

      June - 6

      July - 9

      August - 1

      September - 0

Lest these stats imply a cool summer, through August 17 there were also 12 days with a max of 88° or 89°.  We haven't come close to those high temperatures since 8/17 and the past month has been rather nice.

Another 6 weeks of neither needing to use air conditioning nor heating to maintain a good temperature inside the house would be nice.

Location: north Smithtown, NY

Same thing here, Ed, one 90 degree high and one 89 degree high in August, it was a cool month.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 9/18/2025 at 6:17 AM, bluewave said:

Top down drought with all the record warmth and blocking in Canada forced this system too far to our south. Places like JFK have had their 7 driest September to September period. They are down 11.3” of precipitation over the last year at only 31.99”.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1966-09-16	27.41	0
2	1985-09-16	29.11	0
3	1965-09-16	30.62	0
4	1970-09-16	30.92	0
5	1995-09-16	31.41	0
6	2022-09-16	31.84	0
7	2025-09-16	31.99	0
8	2002-09-16	33.14	0
9	1954-09-16	33.40	19
10	1981-09-16	33.42	0

You'd think we'd have a summer like 1966 with all this dryness, why didn't that happen?

1966 was one of our hottest summers.

 

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But there was a time when NYC regularly got 40 inch snowfall winters, look at the period from the 1860s through the 1920s

 

I don't see that in the record

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I don't post here often, mainly only during wintertime. But this post resonates. I feel that the 2000s and 2010s being record snowy was the final push before our winters became too warm to support above average snowfall. We had the right amount of cold air and moisture, the right balance, to allow for those amazing winters. But this decade, we've been in bad spots all around except 2021 and 2022 (for some posters.) And it doesn't seem to be getting any better either. Maybe one day we'll see a good winter again. 

it reminds me of just before the rain/snow line breaches the area you often get your heaviest snow.

 

[Sundog]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We have 10 more years I think until we can say this with confidence. We had a bonanza period that lasted about 18 years with a few duds thrown in. We were due for a sharp reversion to the mean-there's no way NYC can get away with regular 40" snow winters. So if this new regime started in 2018, that would be 2036 when we have an equally long timeframe as the snowier one.  Also the background warming means marginal snow situations 30 years ago would be rain now-so the bad years are even worse. 

Despite the very snowy period we also had a highly abnormal amount of under 10 inch winters embedded within the last 30 years as well. 

Those duds have been much more likely to occur since the Super El Nino compared to the 100+ years of snow records before. 

So while we averaged higher overall, the annual snowfall has been much more volatile in general, going from feast to famine.

[LibertyBell]

On 9/18/2025 at 7:58 AM, bluewave said:

The 1980s snowfall averaged about 6” higher than the last 7 seasons.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.1	2.6	8.2	5.9	2.7	1.0	20.4
1979-1980	T	0.0	2.5	3.0	2.3	3.2	T	11.0
1980-1981	0.0	0.2	1.7	7.7	T	6.9	0.0	16.5
1981-1982	0.0	T	3.1	12.5	0.8	0.3	8.2	24.9
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	4.8	1.0	24.7	0.1	1.5	32.1
1983-1984	0.0	T	1.2	9.9	T	10.9	T	22.0
1984-1985	0.0	T	5.5	12.4	9.0	0.4	T	27.3
1985-1986	0.0	T	2.8	3.0	13.5	T	T	19.3
1986-1987	0.0	0.4	1.0	11.8	7.9	2.0	0.0	23.1
1987-1988	0.0	0.4	3.0	15.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	19.7
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.7	4.7	0.1	2.7	0.0	8.2

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	0.7	1.8	3.7	7.3	1.0	T	14.5
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	3.0	2.5	6.5	0.0	0.0	12.0
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.4	10.4	T	0.0	12.8
2022-2023	0.0	T	T	T	1.7	0.4	0.0	2.1
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	17.8	3.2	0.5	0.0	21.7
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	7.2	0.9	26.4	T	T	34.5
2019-2020	0.0	T	1.9	1.9	T	T	T	3.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.8	T	0.7	3.1	6.1	0.0	14.7

 

the 1980s snowfall drought really commenced after the 1982-83 winter, I'd say it lasted from 1983-84 through 1992-93 if you want to cover a 10 year period.  What was the JFK average for those 10 years, Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I don't see that in the record

The early part of the NYC snowfall record was much higher than it is now, plus you also have to include compaction since snowfall was measured near the end of the storm.  If snowfall was measured like it is now, those earlier decades likely averaged over 40 inches of snow instead of the 32-36 inches using the old method.

 

[Sundog]

Fun/miserable fact:

NYC had 6 <10 inch winters between 1869 and 1997.

NYC had 6 <10 inch winters between 1998 and 2024. 

[lee59]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But there was a time when NYC regularly got 40 inch snowfall winters, look at the period from the 1860s through the 1920s

 

Actually that 60 year period had 17 winters with 40+ snowfalls. It was colder then but I believe it was also dryer so snowfall wasn't as high as you would think with the colder temps. I'm sure it stuck around a lot longer when it did snow.

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Actually that 60 year period had 17 winters with 40+ snowfalls. It was colder then but I believe it was also dryer so snowfall wasn't as high as you would think with the colder temps. I'm sure it stuck around a lot longer when it did snow.

The snow season was also longer, the first few decades of snow records from NYC show about half of Novembers having accumulating snowfall, some of them with major numbers. 

To be fair though we were on the tail end of ther Little Ice Age and so the background state was just overall naturally cooler even without global warming. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The snow season was also longer, the first few decades of snow records from NYC show about half of Novembers having accumulating snowfall, some of them with major numbers. 

To be fair though we were on the tail end of ther Little Ice Age and so the background state was just overall naturally cooler even without global warming. 

April 1872 was absolutely amazing for snowfall too.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Fun/miserable fact:

NYC had 6 <10 inch winters between 1869 and 1997.

NYC had 6 <10 inch winters between 1998 and 2024. 

Ouch lol

In that earlier period how many of those 6 < 10 inch snowfall seasons were between 1972-1997?

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The snow season was also longer, the first few decades of snow records from NYC show about half of Novembers having accumulating snowfall, some of them with major numbers. 

To be fair though we were on the tail end of ther Little Ice Age and so the background state was just overall naturally cooler even without global warming. 

If you go earlier in the snowfall record even before 1869 it was even snowier and snow stuck around from November to March.

There were some 100 inch snowfall winters in there, likely 1782-83, 1804-05, 1836-37, 1844-45.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

the 1980s snowfall drought really commenced after the 1982-83 winter, I'd say it lasted from 1983-84 through 1992-93 if you want to cover a 10 year period.  What was the JFK average for those 10 years, Chris?

 

The lowest 10 year for JFK was 18.0” from 83-84 to 92-93. So this 7 year stretch has been lower that 10 year. The 7 year got down to 15.8” vs the current 14.5”.

The key difference is that snow drought ended with 93-94 and 95-96 since the climate was so much colder than our modern 2020s climate.

Unlikely we see a 50”+ season and a 70”+ season during the remainder of the 2020s within 2 years apart to break this snow drought without the greatest volcanic eruption in hundreds to thousands of years.

Unfortunately, we don’t have a reliable long range volcanic forecast system. 

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Ouch lol

In that earlier period how many of those 6 < 10 inch snowfall seasons were between 1972-1997?

 

Two, 1972-1973 and 1988-1989.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Fun/miserable fact:

NYC had 6 <10 inch winters between 1869 and 1997.

NYC had 6 <10 inch winters between 1998 and 2024. 

What about 40" winters? Just wondering.  

[MJO812]

Im wearing a tank top today 

 

[anthonymm]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Im wearing a tank top today 

 

It's disgustingly hot. Today has a mid July feel.