Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s exactly what a TC would look like in a stable airmass lol. 

it's not just 'stable' air.  

There is SAL, and SAL is a micro-physical inhibitor.  There can be an unstable sounding ...having lapse rates and so forth.  But SAL particles create an over proficient condensation process onto particulate (nano dust) surfaces.    Think of it like an 'atmospheric sponge' soaking up the water prior to cloud genesis.  Sort of a cartoon metaphor lol.  

Dry air is another aspect.  The tropical instability requires more than just lapse rates for TC engine.   WV> 25C wet bulb needs to be maintained.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Im still tracking but this is looking like a miss.

Meh

I honestly don’t know why you guys do this in winter and summer. You would hear a lot more excitement if this was more of a likely hit, from the Mets. Trust me, I would love some excitement, but not this time.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's not just 'stable' air.  

There is SAL, and SAL is a micro-physical inhibitor.  There can be an unstable sounding ...having lapse rates and so forth.  But SAL particles create an over proficient condensation process onto particulate (nano dust) surfaces.    Think of it like an 'atmospheric sponge' soaking up the water prior to cloud genesis.  Sort of a cartoon metaphor lol.  

Dry air is another aspect.  The tropical instability requires more than just lapse rates for TC engine.   WV> 25C wet bulb needs to be maintained.

 

 

Headlong into it

[Cyclone-68]

It would be fitting to the general mood if the system disappears and never even makes it across the Atlantic 

[Torch Tiger]

 many of us will not see another NE hurricane in our lifetime.  Sucks

[Cyclone-68]

29 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 many of us will not see another NE hurricane in our lifetime.  Sucks

I barely saw Gloria really. Knocked over a couple of trees and a little bit of light rain and that was it for me..Hurricane Bob was a total non entity when I lived in Dedham..Hurricane Belle in ‘76 when I was a wee lad had some heavy rain and gusty winds but I don’t think it was even a hurricane at landfall 

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro OTS... I'll give it a couple days

[FXWX]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro OTS... I'll give it a couple days

Denial is never healthy... Lol

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Denial is never healthy... Lol

2/3 of the EPS members are west of it though 

[ineedsnow]

EPS  definitely has some east coast threats

[WxWatcher007]

Forgetting Atlantic Canada lol. There’s a 948mb over St. John’s. 

Is Nick still up there? 

[ineedsnow]

We EPS!   and until it shows no hits we track!

[ineedsnow]

9 members recurve between NC and SNE close enough for me to keep tracking 

[CoastalWx]

They'll always be "interesting members" when you have dozens of perturbed members.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They'll always be "interesting members" when you have dozens of perturbed members.

Let him go…you can’t save him  

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They'll always be "interesting members" when you have dozens of perturbed members.

 

[Sn0waddict]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

 many of us will not see another NE hurricane in our lifetime.  Sucks

Henri was our chance and that thing just never got its act together lol