Tracking the tropics - 2025

[WxWatcher007]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

On the euro, it's too bad Erin feels that weakness around hr 186 and moves north. Otherwise that other trough diving into the GL might raise a few eyebrows, but it's way too late verbatim. Look at that massive gyre north of Maine.

Just a monster. I mean look at this.

12z

 

And 00z

 

Life support is probably putting it kindly though watch out Atlantic Canada..

[WxWatcher007]

I still think the GFS and its ensembles are too fast with the Atlantic ridge weakness, but we’d need substantial changes at medium range just to be a long shot in the ballgame for a close EC approach (saying nothing of the maritimes). 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I still think the GFS and its ensembles are too fast with the Atlantic ridge weakness, but we’d need substantial changes at medium range just to be a long shot in the ballgame for a close EC approach (saying nothing of the maritimes). 

I think a big part of that is tied into that trough digging into southeast Canada. Seems to really do a number on that riding. If the GFS is too aggressive with that degree of troughing that could open the door for a stronger ridge  

[jbenedet]

I believe the trend is to overall deamplify the players over the CONUS—the PNA ridge and the gyre over Eastern Canada.

The teleconnections across the board are trending to neutral over the next 10 days. It’s spectacularly boring on that front. We’re pretty much left with just the background climate. With that, this will be a nice test case to see how much easterly flow we can develop without a deep trough over eastern US; i.e. how much of our background climate has actually changed as it relates to the higher heights regularly observed over the western Atlantic.

[ineedsnow]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

On the euro, it's too bad Erin feels that weakness around hr 186 and moves north. Otherwise that other trough diving into the GL might raise a few eyebrows, but it's way too late verbatim. Look at that massive gyre north of Maine.

That's what I was talking about earlier.. it's been showing up on some models..

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That's what I was talking about earlier.. it's been showing up on some models..

Too late 

[Damage In Tolland]

Blows dongs and Jack dicks 

[Torch Tiger]

need that big low across QC to scoot north-east and/or be far less bully