Tracking the tropics - 2025

[ROOSTA]

Hurricane Models continue with a W track. Now as far as 73.1 W 29.3 N
The consistent Westward track continues (no panic yet)
Tell you if I lived in New England its very concerning.  

[Torch Tiger]

0/37 12z gfs ens members take the storm anywhere near NE

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

0/37 12z gfs ens members take the storm anywhere near NE

Big shift west on the 12z EPS but still curves out south of here

[Baroclinic Zone]

This could do a BM track and still give us cirrus. Not even close.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yea pretty large shift with major implications verbatim for SE Bahamas and would get some coastal flooding and sustained Tropical Storm force winds for Hatteras.  

It did that before and snapped right back within one cycle. I think it’s still an outlier until other guidance (GFS) comes along.

The only thing that was of modest interest to me though on that run was something I noted days ago. Depending on the timing of the trough there may be a fast moving PRE that sets up somewhere.

 

Again, unless the Euro knows what it’s doing this is all moot. 

———

THIS IS A WEENIE PRODUCT FOR INEEDSNOW

 

[ROOSTA]

I should be banned for this statement.
18z NAM. Anyone wanna look?

 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025
 
...CATEGORY 5 ERIN CONTINUING TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

 

Shouldn't ERIN be written off by NOW?